ORLANDO, Fla. — If you want a bellwether of where the free-agent market is right now, the representatives for Ervin Santana are presenting a case to clubs that their client — just one year removed from a 5.19 ERA and a major league-high 39 homers yielded — should receive a five-year, $112 million contract.
Now, remember, at this time, representatives tend to shoot high as a starting point in negotiations.
Still, organizations, media and fans have had sticker shock so far on Hunter Pence (five years, $90 million), Tim Lincecum (two years, $35 million), Jose Abreu (six years, $68 million) and Marlon Byrd (two years, $16 million). That is going to continue this offseason, including with players such as Santana.
For now, though, Santana’s reps are asking for a contract with an average value of $22.4 million, which would be the ninth-highest ever, just behind the $22.92 million of another Santana, Johan, with the Mets.
Ervin Santana’s reps are making the case that many of the peripheral stats show similarities between their client and Zack Greinke in 2013 (when Santana had a 3.24 ERA and 161 strikeouts) and from 2011-13. Greinke received a seven-year, $147 million contract last offseason from the Dodgers. Santana’s reps also are implying Santana’s problematic 2012 season was fueled, to a significant extent, by the Angels not scoring for him in a record five straight starts early that season and Santana beginning to press.
Also, their data suggests the homer problems of 2012 were an outlier and that Santana was around league average in that area for AL starters in other recent seasons. His reps also are selling Santana’s durability – he threw 211 innings for the Royals last season, the third time in four years he has topped 200.
Still, Santana has been an All-Star just once, and that was 2008, which was the only time he received a Cy Young vote, finishing tied for sixth. Greinke also has only been an All-Star once and received Cy Young consideration once, but he won the award in 2009, and the industry views him as close to an ace, if not an ace, while not appraising Santana in the same light.