NL East
1. Nationals
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 10-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 89 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: A healthy RHP Doug Fister, acquired from the Tigers over the winter, gives Washington the best starting rotation in the division and perhaps the league. However, Fister has missed time in spring training with right elbow inflammation.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Though OF Bryce Harper, just 21, has accomplished amazing things in his first two seasons, the Nationals would like their ultra-intense youngster to stay on the field for more than last year’s 118 games.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP A.J. Cole, whom the Nationals traded to Oakland (for Gio Gonzalez) in December 2011 and then reacquired from the A’s (as part of a three-way trade, in which Washington gave OF Mike Morse to Seattle) in January 2013, could be called up as a midseason reinforcement to the starting rotation.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can rookie manager Matt Williams, with zero experience, learn on the fly as he takes over this contending club?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the bullpen, led by former Yankees RHP Rafael Soriano, secures enough of the many leads it should inherit and 3B Ryan Zimmerman avoids the right shoulder soreness that has affected him this spring. They will dive if, like last year and unlike 2012, the high ambitions serve as more of an albatross than a carrot.
2. Braves
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 16-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 87 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: The Braves signed free agent RHP Ervin Santana only after they suffered a slew of injuries, with RHPs Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery for both) out for the season and LHP Mike Minor (left shoulder) not ready for the opener. Santana has to deliver another high-quality season like his 2013 with the Royals.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: OF B.J. Upton was horrendous in 2013, with a .184/.268/.289 slash line in his first season after signing a five-year, $75.25 million contract. A repeat of that nightmare would raise many questions about Upton’s future.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: The Braves hope the development of C Christian Betancourt, who could arrive by midseason, will soften the blow of losing C Brian McCann to the Yankees.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can 2B Dan Uggla climb back to the guy the Braves gave $62 million over five years? He wasn’t dramatically better than Upton last year.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if RHP Julio Teheran builds off his impressive 2013 and joins Santana as a co-ace, providing coverage for their injured rotation mates, and RHP Gavin Floyd (recovering from Tommy John surgery) ultimately contributes as well. They will dive if 1B Freddie Freeman presses in an attempt to live up to his eight-year, $135 million extension.
3. Mets
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 75-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 73 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: OF Curtis Granderson, having signed the largest contract (four years and $60 million) of the Sandy Alderson era, can complement 3B David Wright both in the lineup and in the clubhouse provided he stays healthy.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Whether it’s because of stubbornness or just a good, old-fashioned cash shortage, SS Ruben Tejada remains in prime position to play every day for the Mets — even as free agent SS Stephen Drew is available. Tejada must be better on both sides of the action.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: The Mets hope spring-training darling RHP Noah Syndergaard can be their third straight high-profile midseason promotion, following the recent tradition of RHPs Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can the Mets get even league-average production from first base? Their spring-training competition between 1Bs Ike Davis and Lucas Duda has been a bust thanks to both players suffering injuries.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their impressive pitching depth both keeps the Mets in games and helps them land a big bat in a trade. They will dive if OF Chris Young and C Travis d’Arnaud lead a long list of projected everyday players who simply can’t figure it out offensively.
4. Marlins
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 100-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 69 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: As OF Giancarlo Stanton goes, so go the Marlins. His slugging percentage dropped to a career-worst .480 last year. For what it’s worth, he has looked very good in spring training and seems happier with the direction of the club.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, whom the Marlins signed to a three-year, $21-million contract in free agency, will be looked upon to bring some World Series title-winning wisdom as well as some pop with the bat and behind-the-plate direction to pitchers.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: The Marlins rushed RHP Jose Fernandez to the majors last year, and that worked out quite well. LHP Andrew Heaney could be next, although not at the outset of the season.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Are young RHPs Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez and Jacob Turner ready to join Fernandez to create an elite starting rotation?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if veterans such as 2B Rafael Furcal, 3B Casey McGehee and 1B Garrett Jones enjoy a group renaissance and provide some coverage for the young pitchers. They will dive if pretty much everything doesn’t go perfectly, and that includes a lack of meddling by the historically meddlesome duo of owner Jeffrey Loria and president David Samson.
5. Phillies
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 33-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 76 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: 1B Ryan Howard is tied with LHP Cliff Lee as the team’s highest-paid player at $25 million, so it would be nice for him to produce at something closer to elite level than replacement level. That’s not particularly realistic, though.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: SS Jimmy Rollins produced the lowest OPS (.667) of his career last year while batting in the top third of the Phillies’ lineup. He and manager Ryne Sandberg have been at odds this spring, but it’s not like the team has a great replacement candidate.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: If the Phillies somehow stay afloat in the playoff race, 3B Mikael Franco could arrive later this season and provide a helpful bat.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: What can the Phillies get from LHP Cole Hamels this season? He’ll begin the season on the disabled list thanks to an achy left shoulder.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their nine players aged 34 and over discover a gigantic Fountain of Youth — if Lee and newcomer RHP A.J. Burnett, in particular, pitch so well that they compensate for the myriad other holes. They will dive if Sandberg, in his first full year, proves no more brilliant than his predecessor, Charlie Manuel, in solving this mess of a roster.
NL Central
1. Cardinals
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 15-2
OVER/UNDER WINS: 90 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: SS Jhonny Peralta, signed to a four-year, $53 million contract over the winter, will be counted on to vastly improve the Cards’ weakest position of 2013 while moving past the Biogenesis scandal that engulfed him last year.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: If last year’s postseason stud RHP Michael Wacha can pitch near an elite level from April through September, he would make up for the injury concerns of LHP Jaime Garcia (left shoulder) and the downward trending of RHP Lance Lynn.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: OF Oscar Tavares still is highly regarded even after a right ankle injury torpedoed his 2013 season. Presuming good health, he’ll probably contribute to the big-league club at some point this year.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Who will replace departed OF Carlos Beltran (gone to the Yankees, of course) as the most feared and respected bat in the lineup? Allen Craig takes Beltran’s place in right field.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their remarkable organizational depth — 2B Kolten Wong will be the latest homegrown guy to join the lineup — and winning culture deliver as has become their custom. They will dive only if a massive injury epidemic — think the 2013 Yankees, times five — strikes the franchise.
2. Brewers
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 66-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 79 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: OF Ryan Braun, who arguably outdid even Alex Rodriguez on the Biogenesis Dirtbag Scale, must resume his career after last year’s season-ending 65-game suspension and reprove his excellence. He’s signed for another seven years, after all.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: 2B Rickie Weeks has to reverse his career freefall and earn his $11 million salary in baseball’s smallest market.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Jimmy Nelson, who struck out eight (and walked five) in 10 big-league innings last year, could help the Brewers’ starting rotation by year’s end.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can 3B Aramis Ramirez, limited to 92 games last year with knee problems and held back this spring after undergoing surgery to remove a polyp from his colon, give the Brewers a full year of solid production? Milwaukee requires another middle-of-the-lineup force.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if newly signed RHP Matt Garza can pitch up to his potential — he has been bad in spring training — and OF Carlos Gomez and SS Jean Segura can build off last year’s encouraging campaigns. They will thrive if the bullpen can’t gel — former Met RHP Francisco Rodriguez missed time because he stepped on a cactus — and first base, manned by former Yankees Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay, winds up as an offensive sinkhole.
3. Pirates
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 28-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 83 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: OF Andrew McCutchen is the reigning NL Most Valuable Player and the team leader. He serves as the face of this franchise determined to show that last year’s playoff berth was a trend, not an aberration.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: The Pirates are hoping they can make over reclamation project RHP Edinson Volquez, signed as a free agent from the Dodgers, as successfully as they did LHP Francisco Liriano last year. But Volquez endured a brutal spring.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Speedy, athletic OF Gregory Polanco could step in this season and give the Pirates a lineup boost.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will regression to the mean turn this Cinderella story into a one-hit wonder? Players such as 1B Gaby Sanchez, Liriano and LHP Jeff Locke enjoyed considerable leaps from 2012 to 2013. Their surges will be difficult to maintain, and Volquez is the only high-profile new arrival. First base in particular is a concern.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the bullpen repeats last year’s killer performance and again makes the Pirates a strong one-run-game club (they were 29-23 last year). They will dive if they find themselves missing departed former Yankees RHP A.J. Burnett and former Mets OF Marlon Byrd, both of whom headed to the Phillies.
4. Reds
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 25-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 83 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Rookie OF Billy Hamilton will be looked upon to replace departed free agent OF Shin-Soo Choo (to Texas) as both the leadoff hitter and center fielder. The latter seems doable, the former maybe not.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: 2B Brandon Phillips has experienced a two-year decline, and the normally garrulous 32-year-old is boycotting the Cincinnati media, creating more tension. With four years left on his contract, he can’t turn into an albatross.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Robert Stephenson might be ready sometime this season to help fill the starting rotation void left by RHP Bronson Arroyo’s free-agent jump to Arizona.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will the promotion of pitching coach Bryan Price to manager, replacing dismissed veteran skipper Dusty Baker, fix whatever seemed to break in this club down the stretch last year?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive, and record a third straight postseason berth, if they receive more offense than expected from SS Zack Cozart, 3B Todd Frazier and OF Ryan Ludwick. They will dive if a healthy RHP Johnny Cueto can’t cover for the other holes here and if the bullpen can’t succeed without injured closer LHP Aroldis Chapman, who suffered a scary injury late in spring training when a liner back to the mound gave him fractures above his left eye and nose.
5. Cubs
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 75-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 69 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Though 1B Anthony Rizzo performed competently last year, his first full major-league season, the Cubs are hoping he can deliver more than a .742 OPS and hit lefties better than his career .194/.270/.347 line.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: SS Starlin Castro experienced a brutal 2013 season, batting a miserable .245. Since he’s under team control through 2020, it’s imperative he look more like the player he was from 2010 through 2012.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Arodys Vizcaino, long ago a Yankees prospect (he went to Atlanta to reacquire RHP Javier Vazquez for the 2010 season), could help the bullpen as he returns from March 2012 Tommy John surgery.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: What will become of RHP Jeff Samardzija? With two years before free agency, will he sign an extension or become this year’s big trade chip for president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if new manager Rick Renteria connects with his many young players better than did his fired predecessor Dale Sveum. They will dive if available veterans such as OF Nate Schierholtz and RHP Jose Veras fail to enhance their trade value with solid seasons. The Cubs must keep moving forward to appease their grumpy fan base.
NL West
1. Dodgers
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 13-2
OVER/UNDER WINS: 93
KEY PLAYER: SS Hanley Ramirez awoke from a two-year slumber to put up monster numbers in limited action (86 games) last year. In his walk year — he has expressed his desire to stay with the team — he’ll be looked upon to be both elite and durable.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: RHP Brandon League was dreadful last year. If he can rebound, he’d join RHPs Kenley Jansen and Brian Wilson as part of a lockdown bullpen.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Rookie IF Alex Guerrero joins his fellow Cuban Yasiel Puig after signing a four-year, $28 million deal with the Dodgers. However, he lost out to Dee Gordon in the competition for the starting job at second base and is now at Triple-A Albuquerque.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will manager Don Mattingly’s contract extension provide him more authority and confidence to guide his high-payroll, high-maintenance group — including four veteran outfielders (Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Puig) for three spots — through the season?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if veteran Dan Haren now and RHP Josh Beckett later (he has a bruised right hand) bolster the back end of the team’s starting rotation. They will dive if Ramirez goes back to the disabled list early and often and Puig’s expanded waist line leaves him a less explosive player.
2. Giants
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 16-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 86 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Former A’s RHP Tim Hudson returns to the Bay Area after nine years with the Braves, and despite his age (38) and recent injury history (a 2013-ending right ankle fracture), he’ll be counted on as a frontline starting pitcher.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: RHP Matt Cain made a career out of defying his peripheral numbers… until last year, when he turned from a model of consistency to a liability. He must rediscover his magic.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: With the Giants’ pitching quality dipping these last couple of years — they sure could use Mets RHP Zack Wheeler, whom they used to get Carlos Beltran in a 2011 trade — LHP Edwin Escobar could emerge from the farm system to help by season’s end.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can RHP Tim Lincecum, coming off two straight lousy seasons, justify the two-year, $35 million extension the Giants gave him last October to keep him out of free agency?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive and move past last year’s uncharacteristic losing record if they do a better job of capitalizing on their markedly improved lineup — delivering with runners in scoring position, in other words. 2B Marco Scutaro, good at that, has been slowed by back problems. They will dive if their bullpen can’t do a better job of stranding inherited runners.
3. Padres
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 50-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 78 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: RHP Josh Johnson signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the hopes of revitalizing his career following an awful 2013 with Toronto. However, he’ll begin the season on the disabled list with a strained right forearm. Whether he returns in May, as hoped, could largely determine how the Padres fare.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: 3B Chase Headley, in his walk year, has an opportunity to make himself a very rich man — provided he slugs more like he did in 2012 (31 homers) than last year (13). A left calf injury limited his playing time this spring.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Matt Wisler stands as a potential re-enforcement to the Padres’ shaky starting rotation. He’ll start the season with Triple-A Tucson.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can OF Cameron Maybin, who missed most of last year with multiple injuries, return from a ruptured left biceps tendon and contribute? The Padres need to get more from their $25 million investment in him through 2017.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if free agent signee RHP Joaquin Benoit teams with holdover closer RHP Huston Street to create an excellent bullpen. They will dive if former Yankees RHP Ian Kennedy remains an enigma and his excellent 2011 (with Arizona) remains an outlier, especially now that LHP Cory Luebke has undergone a second Tommy John surgery.
4. Diamondbacks
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 50-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 80
KEY PLAYER: 1B Paul Goldschmidt finished second in last year’s NL MVP voting and has become the face of the franchise. The Diamondbacks hope there won’t be too much regression from his 2013 rise.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: RHP Trevor Cahill struggled with his command last year and personified the Diamondbacks’ overall lackluster pitching. Arizona also would like to see a rebound from Cahill’s rotation mates RHP Brandon McCarthy and LHP Wade Miley, all the more so with LHP Patrick Corbin out for the season.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Archie Bradley is one of the most highly touted prospects in the entire game. He’ll be in the mix for major-league starts if the rotation hits some speed bumps, which it already has.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if new closer RHP Addison Reed solidifies a bullpen that cost them dearly last year and new starter RHP Bronson Arroyo recovers from his current back woes to be his normal innings-eating self. They will dive if OF Mark Trumbo, acquired over the winter from the Angels (for whom he spent time at first base and DH), fails to adjust to his new everyday defensive role and it impacts his offense.
5. Rockies
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 75-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 76 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: The tie goes to franchise pillars OF Carlos Gonzalez and SS Troy Tulowitzki, who played in 110 and 126 games, respectively, last season. The Rockies would love to get them for 140 each. Tulowitzki has missed time this spring with a bruised left calf.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: The Rockies bought low on LHP Brett Anderson, acquiring him in a trade from the A’s. They’re counting on him to both stay healthy and pitch effectively, a combination that the 26-year-old has found elusive.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: RHP Jonathan Gray, selected third overall in last year’s amateur draft, is advanced enough that making it to the majors this season isn’t out of the question.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can the eternally pitching-challenged Rockies actually put together a serviceable staff? They seem to have a number of capable pieces in LHP Jorge De La Rosa, RHP Jhoulys Chacin and RHP Tyler Chatwood as well as newly signed relievers RHP LaTroy Hawkins (from the Mets) and LHP Boone Logan (from the Yankees).
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if 3B Nolan Arenado can become an average hitter to complement his brilliant defense, strengthening the lineup. They will dive if Hawkins, 41, finally starts acting his age and Logan can’t bounce back from left elbow surgery.