What is Vladimir Putin up to in fomenting phony “unrest” in eastern Ukraine?
Don’t doubt for a minute that it is phony. None of the “uprisings” in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov have any of the characteristics of the true revolution that chased Putin’s Ukrainian puppet, ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, out of power and into exile in Russia.
Tens of thousands of people from all over Ukraine came to Kiev’s Independence Square to protest against Yanukovych’s corrupt government. For three months, they stood fast and resisted repeated assaults by the regime’s armed thugs. And they were represented by established opposition parties who articulated a vision of what kind of country its citizens want Ukraine to become.
By contrast, the pro-Russian protests in eastern Ukraine have scant support even in their own cities. The numbers are minuscule: A few hundred pro-Russia agitators have assaulted lightly defended government buildings; their rallies have attracted at most a few thousand adherents. They have no recognized legitimate leadership. Even Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and formerly pro-Yanukovych oligarchs have affirmed their support for a united Ukraine.
How inorganic are these Russian-funded and -organized “revolutionaries”? Well, in Kharkov they stormed the local opera building, apparently thinking it was City Hall — a mistake a foreign provocateur might make, but not any local.
Note that the “unrest,” including the farcical proclamation of a “Donetsk Republic,” is simply one front in Putin’s assault. The Kremlin (reneging on more of its treaty obligations) has also hiked the price of crucial natural gas supplies to Ukraine by 40 percent, and cancelled orders from Ukrainian enterprises and stopped Ukrainian exports at the border.
The obvious goal is to fatally undermine Ukraine’s economy and divide its civil society in order to force Kiev into compromising its own sovereignty.
Putin’s public “ask” is probably his real goal: Have Kiev adopt a new “federal” constitution that also enshrines Ukraine’s neutral status. As he knows, “federalism” would be deadly for the country’s political viability. Ever since independence, Ukraine has suffered from corruption and weak institutions; devolving already scarce government authority would fracture the country beyond repair. And then the Kremlin could de facto absorb Ukraine’s newly “autonomous” eastern provinces.
And “neutralization” would pre-empt any NATO membership bid and render Ukraine a de facto Russian satellite — a pathetic state that couldn’t possibly inspire any would-be Russian democrats to threaten Putin’s reign in Moscow.
Then, too, it’s all a lesson for others in Russia’s “near abroad”: Stray too close to the West, and you’ll be destroyed, while America and Europe wag their fingers.
Will it work? Perhaps — but don’t underestimate Ukraine’s resurgent national spirit. Already, the entire political class has joined against Russia’s aggression. As details of Moscow’s subversion inevitably surface, Ukrainians will rally even more around their country’s sovereignty and independence.
For centuries, Ukraine was divided by stronger powers, and its modern history as an independent state is equally troubled. Twice in living memory, citizens’ hopes have been dashed: After independence in 1991, dreams of more prosperous future led to 13 years of failed and hopelessly corrupted post-Soviet government. Then the Orange Revolution of 2004 raised new aspirations that again collapsed in bitter disappointment.
This time can be different. Ukraine has experienced a revolution consecrated in blood, and its citizens are more united than they have been in 300 years. They also see more clearly than ever the choice before them: continued subservience to Moscow and poverty under dysfunctional Soviet-style governance or the establishment of a government based on rule of law and anchored in the West.
Ukraine’s citizens want to unite behind a government they can call their own. The only real question is whether the West will give them the bare minimum of support they need to stand up to Putin’s assault.
Mark Nuckols teaches law and business in Moscow, and has lived in Eastern Europe most of the last 20 years.