A team-by-team look at the AFC:
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
COACH: Bill Belichick
2013 PROJECTION: 12-4
2012 RECORD: 12-4
OVER/UNDER WINS: 11
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 10-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 208
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Bill Belichick’s reign of terror isn’t over yet. Tom Brady can connect on a fade to Bob Kraft, and Danny Amendola, if healthy, is a younger Wes Welker. Godsend 25-year-old free agent WR Kenbrell Thompkins and 6-foot-7 TE Zack Sudfeld have emerged enough so Gisele doesn’t have to “pray for Tommy.” Running back Shane Vereen will be a weapon in the passing game and a complement to Stevan Ridley. Guard Logan Mankins anchors a big, cohesive offensive line that protects Brady to the death. A breakout season from DE Chandler Jones would take stress off the young secondary, although safety Adrian Wilson adds leadership and experience. Belichick preferred ILB Jerod Mayo to Vernon Gholston. I’d say he was right. Aqib Talib is that big, physical corner every team needs these days. Ask Nick Mangold about Vince Wilfork. Kraft is still rooting for Tim Tebow — wherever he is.
ROADBLOCKS: Foxborough is no longer the Cradle of Tight Ends. Everyone knows about Aaron Hernandez, and no one knows whether Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy. If rookie WR Aaron Dobson doesn’t earn Brady’s trust, someone else will.
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS
COACH: Joe Philbin
2013 PROJECTION: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 7-9
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 40-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 1,262
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, a rookie no more, has the most dangerous deep threat in the division in Mike Wallace, who is the perfect complement to WR Brian Hartline. When No. 1 draft pick DE Dion Jordan’s shoulder is ready, third-and-long will be a treacherous place to be for quarterbacks with Cameron Wake on the other side.
ROADBLOCKS: Running back remains a question mark with speedy Lamar Miller trying to replace Reggie Bush. An even greater concern is LT Jonathan Martin attempting to replace Jake Long. Cornerback Brent Grimes is being counted upon to fill the void left by the departure of Sean Smith.
3. NEW YORK JETS
COACH: Rex Ryan
2013 PROJECTION: 5-11
2012 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 125-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 0
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Rex Ryan’s top-5 defense will keep games close. Demario Davis can be a double-digit sacker if turned loose from the outside. Mo Wilkerson is in Beast Mode. Jeremy Kerley will catch 60 passes.
ROADBLOCKS: This is a quarterback-driven league. Ryan doesn’t have a quarterback to drive him anywhere. He doesn’t have playmakers around the quarterback either. Tone Time, anyone?
4. BUFFALO BILLS
COACH: Doug Marrone
2013 PROJECTION: 5-11
2012 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 150-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 361
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: If RB C.J. Spiller doesn’t touch the ball enough, Bills fans may be the ones throwing up. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson will get his 1,000 yards playing catchup. New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine gets to spread his wings away from Rex Ryan’s shrinking shadow.
ROADBLOCKS: Someone named Jeff Tuel is the Week 1 quarterback, unless No. 1 pick EJ Manuel’s knee cooperates. The second option opposite Johnson? Oh, Ma-rrone! The replacement for LG Andy Levitre? Oh, Ma-rrone! Stud CB Stephon Gilmore won’t be back until after midseason. Defensive end Mario Williams will never be Bruce Smith, but is a 12-sack season asking too much in Pettine’s blitz-happy attack? The 13-year playoff drought continues.
AFC NORTH
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS
COACH: Marvin Lewis
2013 PROJECTION: 10-6
2012 RECORD: 10-6
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 25-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 639
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Andy Dalton and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden have a pair of new toys: TE Tyler Eifert, a deep threat complement to Jerome Gresham, and RB Giovani Bernard, a water bug who is more of a home-run threat than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. A.J. Green is the best receiver not named Megatron. Under Marvin Lewis and coordinator Mike Zimmer, DT Geno Atkins and the defense have a chance to be dominant, and ornery (you tell LB James Harrison he didn’t act well in “Hard Knocks”).
ROADBLOCKS: It mostly will be about dealing with great expectations, because losing a third year in a row in the first round of the playoffs no longer will be acceptable.
2. BALTIMORE RAVENS
COACH: John Harbaugh
2013 PROJECTION: 9-7
2012 RECORD: 10-6
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 28-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 191
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Joe Flacco accepts the leadership mantle from Ray Lewis. General manager Ozzie Newsome bolstered the pass rush with DE Elvis Dumervil to help Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata after losing OLB Paul Kruger. Newsome is fortunate he never had to replace RB Ray Rice. The offensive line is mammoth. You can’t go wrong when your coach is a Harbaugh.
ROADBLOCKS: Wide receiver Torrey Smith is the new Go-To Guy now that Anquan Boldin is in San Francisco. But who steps up on the other side? Tight end Dennis Pitta’s hip surgery means Ed Dickson gets a chance. But Flacco’s now missing 61 catches and seven TDs from the position. Safety Michael Huff won’t scare quarterbacks the way Ed Reed did, although rookie safety Matt Elam can make receivers flinch. Center Matt Birk’s leadership will be missed.
3. CLEVELAND BROWNS
COACH: Rob Chudzinski
2013 PROJECTION: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 5-11
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 150-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 459
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Running back Trent Richardson is a stud, and a surefire 1,400-yard back and threat to catch 51 passes again if healthy. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner is the best thing to happen to QB Brandon Weeden. Tight end Cameron Jordan is an intriguing target with upside. Punt returner/wide receiver Travis Benjamin is a blur. Coordinator Ray Horton has lots of young talent on defense. The pass rush could be formidable if No. 1 draft pick OLB Barkevious Mingo can make an impact and OLB Jabaal Sheard can make the transition from defensive end. Left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack anchor the offensive line.
ROADBLOCKS: Wide receiver Josh Gordon has tools, but he’ll be serving a two-game suspension at the start of the season, and Greg Little drops too many balls. Horton needs a bookend shutdown corner opposite Joe Haden.
4. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
COACH: Mike Tomlin
2013 PROJECTION: 7-9
2012 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 28-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 370
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Todd Haley begin their second year together, so that’s a plus. Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau are elite coaches. No. 1 draft pick OLB Jarvis Jones should juice the pass rush alongside Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley.
ROADBLOCKS: Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders has to step in for the departed Mike Wallace. The offensive line is a mystery. No. 1 draft pick RB Le’Veon Bell has been set back by a foot injury. That means Isaac Redman (with backup from Felix Jones and LaRod Stephens-Howling) until further notice. Tight end Heath Miller (knee) won’t be a factor early on. Safety Troy Polamalu is an injury-prone 32, and safety Ryan Clark and CB Ike Taylor have mileage on them. It’s a transition year for the Terrible Towels.
AFC SOUTH
1. HOUSTON TEXANS
COACH: Gary Kubiak
2013 PROJECTION: 12-4
2012 RECORD: 12-4
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 16-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 1,634
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Super Bowl or Bust. Monster DE J.J. Watt won’t be the reason they don’t get there. Matt Schaub could be. He needs to prove he is more than just a playoff quarterback. Backup RB Ben Tate would start for more than a handful of teams, but he isn’t Arian Foster. Other than Adrian Peterson, who is? Will Foster hold up? No. 1 draft pick WR DeAndre Hopkins may be the long-awaited Alvin Harper to Andre Johnson’s Michael Irvin, with TE Owen Daniels a nice option. Defensive head Wade Phillips can coordinate. Outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus can be a double-digit sacker, replacing Connor Barwin. Inside linebacker Brian Cushing, back from a torn ACL, is the emotional firebrand. Safety Ed Reed, if healthy, can show these guys what it takes to be a champion.
ROADBLOCKS: Not a lot not to like. Right tackle is a concern, and everybody better duck once DE Antonio Smith has a helmet in his hands. Kicker Randy Bullock is unproven. How about winning a game at Indianapolis?
2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
COACH: Chuck Pagano
2013 PROJECTION: 10-6
2012 RECORD: 11-5
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 40-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 709
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Andrew Luck is a franchise’s dream, from PR maven Avis Roper to Chuckstrong head coach Chuck Pagano to owner Jim Tweetsay, I mean Irsay. Luck won’t have a completion percentage under 60 again. Wide receiver/punt returner T.Y. Hilton is a speed complement to ageless Reggie Wayne, and second-year TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are quarterback-friendly. If RB Ahmad Bradshaw can somehow stay on the field, new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will have a balanced attack. Outside linebacker Erik Walden, biceps-ilicious former Jet LaRon Landry and DE Ricky Jean-Francois will help shore up a dismal run defense. Cornerback Vontae Davis has all the tools. Punter Pat McAfee is a field-position godsend.
ROADBLOCKS: Luck was sacked 41 times last year, so Gosder Cherilus is the new right tackle. No. 1 draft pick OLB Bjoern Werner may struggle making the transition from defensive end and helping Robert Mathis with the pass rush. Is kicker Adam Vinatieri on his last legs?
3. TENNESSEE TITANS
COACH: Mike Munchak
2013 PROJECTION: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 150-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 882
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Running back Chad Johnson has no excuses with guards Andy Levitre and No. 1 draft pick Chance Warmack on board. Wide receivers Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright need to start playing like first-round picks. Tight end Delanie Walker replaces Jared Cook. A kinder, gentler defensive assistant Gregg Williams returns from his Saints Bountygate suspension … and you won’t catch him on tape imploring DEs Derrick Morgan (the Giants passed on him for JPP) and Kamerion Wimbley and OLBs Zach Brown and Akeem Ayers to kill the quarterback. Safeties Bernard Pollard and George Wilson were hired to help fix a defense that surrendered a league-worst 29.4 ppg.
ROADBLOCKS: Head coach Mike Munchak’s job depends on whether offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, who took over the job in November, can help dual threat QB Jake Locker improve his accuracy. The backup now is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Three straight games starting Oct. 13 against the murderous NFC West complicates the task.
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
COACH: Gus Bradley
2013 PROJECTION: 4-12
2012 RECORD: 2-14
OVER/UNDER WINS: 5
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 300-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 932
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Well, maybe RB Maurice Jones-Drew can make it back from his Lisfranc injury. And maybe WR Justin Blackmon, once he returns from a four-game suspension, can form a Batman and Robin duo with Cecil Shorts. And maybe No. 1 draft pick Luke Joeckel can be a dominant bookend at RT for LT Eugene Monroe. And maybe exciting rookies Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson can increase attendance by 10 or 20.
ROADBLOCKS: It’s Put Up or Shut Up for QB Blaine Gabbert. You can’t score 15.9 ppg in this league (though the 2013 Jets figure to be in the ballpark). Gabbert and Chad Henne were sacked a combined 50 times last season. The new regime of general manager David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley inherits a defense they might only appreciate in London, which seems to like these blokes.
AFC WEST
1. DENVER BRONCOS
COACH: John Fox
2013 PROJECTION: 11-5
2012 RECORD: 13-3
OVER/UNDER WINS: 11 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 6-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 1,772
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Peyton Manning is in a much better place another year removed from his neck woes, and Wes Welker joins Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to form a Bermuda Triangle of WRs for opposing secondaries. Athletic TE Julius Thomas is an intriguing target at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. Left tackle Ryan Clady is Peyton’s elite bodyguard, and guards Louis Vasquez and Zane Beadles are rock solid. If rookie RB Montee Ball can emerge, Peyton will score 30 more often than not. Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should fortify the secondary.
ROADBLOCKS: The six-game Von Miller suspension, combined with the departure of Elvis Dumervil, severely compromises the pass rush. Outside linebacker Shaun Phillips needs to step up. Cornerback Champ Bailey isn’t chopped liver, but he ain’t what he used to be. Manny Ramirez taking over at center for Dan Koppen is a concern. At least he isn’t Big Papi’s old sidekick.
2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
COACH: Andy Reid
2013 PROJECTION: 9-7
2012 RECORD: 2-14
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 50-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 1,183
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: New coach Andy Reid can be the Bill Parcells of the Show-Me State, inheriting a 2-14 laughingstock and turning it right around. If QB Alex Smith can prove to 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh he’s a top-10 quarterback, this will be a playoff team as long as RB Jamaal Charles can stay healthy. Keep an eye on versatile Dexter McCluster. Coordinator Bob Sutton’s attacking defense is loaded with No. 1 draft choices (DE Tyson Jackson, NT Dontari Poe, ILB Derrick Johnson, S Eric Berry) with another, CB Dunta Robinson, in reserve. Poe is a svelte 330, but will his barbecue addiction return? Add in CB Brandon Flowers, double-digit sacker OLB Justin Houston and former Jet run-stuffer DE Mike DeVito, and there is no reason why this defense shouldn’t rock. The kicking game (K Ryan Succop, P Dustin Colquitt) is solid.
ROADBLOCKS: Go-To Guy WR Dwayne Bowe could use help, and 49ers bust A.J. Jenkins isn’t the answer. No. 1 overall draft pick RT Eric Fisher will endure growing pains.
3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
COACH: Mike McCoy
2013 PROJECTION: 7-9
2012 RECORD: 7-9
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 50-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 2,575
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Quarterback Philip Rivers is long overdue for a bounce-back season under rookie head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Wide receiver Vincent Brown looks ready to fill the void left by the loss of deep threat Danario Alexander, and TE Antonio Gates remains a red-zone weapon. Danny Woodhead will catch 50 passes as third-down running back, especially with Rivers in catch-up mode. Running back Ryan Mathews, for what it’s worth, looks primed for a 1,000-yard season running behind bludgeoning No. 1 draft pick RT D.J. Fluker. Safety Eric Weddle and DE Corey Liuget are legit, and ILB Manti Te’o hasn’t brought any imaginary friends with him.
ROADBLOCKS: Outside linebacker Melvin Ingram’s torn ACL means Dwight Freeney will ask his 33-year-old legs to chase the quarterback, and OLB Shaun Phillips is in Denver. Cornerback Quentin Jammer is gone, and CB Antoine Cason is in Arizona. That leaves Derek Cox and Shareece Wright to deal with Peyton Manning. All bets are off if tackle King Dunlap can’t keep Rivers, sacked 49 times last season, upright.
4. OAKLAND RAIDERS
COACH: Dennis Allen
2013 PROJECTION: 3-13
2012 RECORD: 4-12
OVER/UNDER WINS: 5 1/2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 250-1
MILES TO MEADOWLANDS: 2,902
HOW THEY’LL GET THERE: Defensive end Lamarr Houston can rush the passer. The secondary has been upgraded with Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins, Charles Woodson and No. 1 draft pick CB D.J. Hayden joining stud Tyvon Branch. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski can boot 60-yard field goals. The Golden Gate Bridge takes you to San Francisco.
ROADBLOCKS: Suck For Clowney. Worst Team In Football. The Silver & Bleak. It really wouldn’t matter whether Dennis Allen or Woody Allen was coaching this eyesore. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor isn’t Matt Flynn, but he isn’t RG3 either. Brittle RB Darren McFadden was supposed to be much more than three yards and a cloud. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has the speed late owner Al Davis always craved, but the maturity of Justin Bieber. Left tackle Jared Veldheer (torn triceps) will be replaced by raw rookie Menelik Watson. Duck! You inevitably find yourself in a Black Hole when you miss on two top-10 draft picks (Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rolando McClain).