‘12 Years a Slave’ should win Oscars — unless voters cop out

Will Oscar voters choose to make history by embracing the unflinching, race-driven historical epic “12 Years a Slave’’ or reach for the cinematic equivalent of comfort food for a fourth year in a row?

There is certainly a lot of support for the two Best Picture nominees announced Thursday that seem most likely successors to the distinctly non-edgy films that have won the top prize most recently: “Argo,’’ “The Artist’’ and “The King’s Speech.’’

Both “American Hustle’’ and “Gravity’’ are lightly artistic popcorn movies lacking the kind of seriousness traditionally associated with Best Picture winners, yet lead the pack with 10 nominations apiece. (No guarantee of success, as we saw with the last two years’ leaders, “Lincoln’’ and “Hugo.’’) But I wouldn’t count out “ 12 Years a Slave,’’ which was just behind with nine nods — including, like “Hustle’’ and “Gravity,’’ the historically essential nomination for film editing, whose absence eliminates the highly divisive “Wolf of Wall Street’’ as well as “Nebraska.’’

Unlike with Ben Affleck and “Argo’’ last year, there’s not going to be an uproar over the directors of “Captain Phillips,’’ “Her,’’ “Dallas Buyers Club’’ and “Philomena’’ not being nominated, so you can safely cross those four off your list of Best Picture contenders as well.

Race has always been an important issue to the heavily liberal Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — and even Golden Globe voters, who have little interest in American history, felt compelled to acknowledge “12 Years a Slave’’ as best drama after snubbing it in six other categories.

The academy, which made history just four years ago by giving its first Best Director Oscar to a woman — Kathryn Bigelow, for “The Hurt Locker’’ — could do the same this year for a black man, Steve McQueen of “12 Years.’’

Sandra Bullock in a scene from “Gravity.”AP/Warner Brothers

Or Oscar voters, who have often been splitting the top honor in recent years, could just as easily decide the Best Picture Oscar is sufficient honor for McQueen — and give the director prize instead to Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity,’’ which earned nominations in all seven technical categories. With due respect to Sandra Bullock, his movie is every bit as much a visual tour de force as “Life of Pi,’’ which netted Ang Lee his second Best Director Oscar a year ago.

There seems little doubt that Cate Blanchett of “Blue Jasmine’’ is a lock in the Best Actress race. She already has a Golden Globe, but if, say, Amy Adams — winless in four previous Oscar tries — upsets Blanchett at Saturday night’s Screen Actors Guild Awards, a race might actually develop.

The Best Actor race is more interesting, especially with the academy throwing both Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips’’) and Robert Redford (“All Is Lost’’) overboard in a crowded field. Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years’’) is probably still leading, but another first-time nominee, Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club’’) has the momentum with a Golden Globe win, and a SAG win could tip the race in his favor.

In the Supporting Actor race, Globe winner Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club’’) will be tough to beat unless someone else wins at SAG, which seems highly unlikely.

One of the most egregious snubs at the Globes was Lupita Nyong’o of “12 Years,’’ who lost the Supporting Actress award to Jennifer Lawrence (“Hustle’’), winner of Best Actress Globe and Oscar honors just last year. I seriously doubt either SAG or Oscar voters will make the same mistake.

I hope “12 Years a Slave’’ wins the Best Picture Oscar, but “American Hustle’’ could very well end up as yet another example of the academy rejecting challenging fare in favor of the least objectionable choice.