Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Yankees face big dilemma regarding Robinson Cano

The question of the playoffs is gone for the Yankees. The question of the payoff is now the main game in town.

What are they going to do about Robinson Cano? It is a decision that will significantly decide how they are shaped in 2014 and for many years to come. It will show if they have the fortitude to draw a negotiating line in the sand and walk away even from a homegrown player they desperately need and want.

The gap between the sides is sizeable. The Yankees’ opening offer was what the Mets gave David Wright (eight years at $138 million), but without the deferrals the third baseman received. The next bid was seven years in the $161 million-$168 million range. The Cano camp countered at 10 years, $310 million — $5 million more than Alex Rodriguez would earn on his record deal if he triggered all of his milestone home run bonuses.

The Yankees swear they are not going near 10 years or that figure, feeling the A-Rod contract was educational to avoid such commitments for players already in their thirties. Cano, who turns 31 next month, has indicated there will be no discount for the Yanks. But will he really follow the last dollar if it puts him in, say, Seattle? It is a game of chicken with many pressure points and interesting characters — not the least of whom is Jay Z.

What does the rapper/mogul see as the endgame with the first significant client in his sports agency? A record contract even if it means taking Cano elsewhere or keeping him at a very good price in New York because of the legacy/off-the-field possibilities Cano attracts as a lifelong Yankee?

But the most important initial question is who are the Yankees bidding against and at what dollar figures?

Because I could see the Yanks maxing out at eight years, $200 million, although some key organizational voices say that kind of money over that kind of length is ill-advised and can be better spent with less risk elsewhere. Still, the Yankees could sell themselves that it is not 10 years and it is not far different from what they were willing to do four years ago for Mark Teixeira (eight years, $180 million).

For Jay Z/Cano, it would be $10 million more on average than any other second baseman has ever received annually and $5 million more than the two largest pacts ever given second basemen combined (Dustin Pedroia, $110 million and Chase Utley $85 million).

But will another organization go higher? Before you say no, remember that annually we hear that this or that star will not get the big dollars and, almost inevitably, they do. Supply and demand often rules and Cano is by far the best free agent. Jacoby Ellsbury is injury prone, Shin-Soo Choo can’t hit lefties and, well, it is hard to know who is even next in the conversation. Maybe Giancarlo Stanton will get on the trade market, but that would entail giving up big pieces of your farm system.

Conversely, more teams are swearing off the mega-deals, seeing what a low-percentage play they are (think A-Rod, Albert Pujols, etc). In addition, there are questions within the industry about Cano’s body type, hustle and leadership skills, and — fairly or unfairly — enough uneasiness about his two degrees of separation from PEDs due to his closeness with A-Rod and Melky Cabrera. Cano has always denied PED use.

Already two expected big bidders, the Dodgers and Cubs, appear unlikely to make major plays for Cano. I suspect this is too rich for the Mets, even if they really are willing to spend this offseason. The Rangers, Phillies (if they move Utley to third), Nationals, Tigers and Mariners all could play. But how high? And what happens if they exceed $200 million.

The Yankees have talked tough before and relented because they were worried about falling behind the competition or losing huge segments of their fan base (think re-signing A-Rod or signing Rafael Soriano). They already have failed to make the playoffs and are losing attendance. There are no prospect studs on the horizon. Does Hal Steinbrenner really have the stomach to hear he is not his father because he is trying to get to $189 million next year and/or he was outbid for his best player?

So the game of chicken is on. Is there a bidder ready to take Cano toward A-Rod dollars, and what do the Yankees counter with if there is?