OK, today, we’re David Caruso happening upon the crime scene — yes, he’s my favorite over William Peterson, Laurence Fishburne, Ted Danson or Gary Sinise, because of the shades and the line deliveries — and trying to determine why the Yankees missed the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.
Yeah, we already know the basics: injuries, bad contracts, poor decisions last winter, unproductive farm system.
But let’s try to break it down a little more. Each winter and early spring, a team (or at least, most teams) puts together a roster and simulates the season through whatever proprietary formula it has created. It charts a course toward contention.
Where did the Yankees go wrong? Let’s break it down into offense and pitching. There’s no reason to discuss defense at length, since the Yankees’ defense actually improved this season, as per Baseball Info Solutions. For that, you can primarily thank the injury-fueled absence of Derek Jeter, whose replacements not named Eduardo Nunez fielded capably — Nunez played in only 74 games at shortstop — and Brett Gardner taking Curtis Granderson’s place in center field for the bulk of the season.
Relative to the entire American League, the Yankees’ hitting and pitching both regressed from 2012 to 2013; they ranked second in the AL in runs scored last year (with 804) and 10th this year with 640, and fourth in runs allowed last year (668) and eighth this year (667).
So let’s start with offense, since it was the bigger culprit. We’ll start with the biggest declines and go down the list.
1. OFFENSE
(sorry, just wanted to make this formal)
a. Shortstop. Brian Cashman has admitted the Yankees learned a lot about ankle injuries this year. In retrospect, it was terribly naïve to plan for Jeter to be the regular guy. Worse, Nunez, while still possessing some intrigue due to his speed and his .728 OPS since returning from the disabled list in July, is still a huge defensive liability and is fragile.
b. Right field. It was time to say goodbye to Nick Swisher, but maybe now he’ll be appreciated more for his contributions in the pinstripes. As Yankees fans watch him play for the Indians on TV next week and make fun of him for being an October bust, they can realize his departure — and the failure to sufficiently fill the void he left — is a significant reason why the Yankees are watching the playoffs on TV, too. Ownership has to take the blame for its Ichiro Suzuki infatuation.
c. First base. It’s one thing to factor in some decline for Mark Teixeira. It’s a whole other thing to essentially wipe out his entire season. I’m not sure it’s fair to attribute that to anything besides terrible luck. Plan B blew up with Kevin Youkilis’ back injury, and while Lyle Overbay provided a couple of highlights, his production ultimately was nothing more than replacement-level. A solid farm system really should be able to come up with a half-decent first baseman.
d. Third base. Signing Youkilis, knowing how uncertain Alex Rodriguez’s future was, made some sense, though it was high-risk. The risk devoured the reward, and A-Rod wound up as the most productive of any Yankees third baseman despite playing just 27 games there.
e. Catcher. Nearly 10 months later, I’m still baffled why the Yankees let Russell Martin go to Pittsburgh without a fight. The Pirates are just grateful.
f. Bench/DH. The Yankees possessed two huge, low-budget assets last year in Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez. Despite the early heroics of Overbay, Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells, none of those guys wound up as assets.
2. PITCHING
It was largely the same personnel here from ’12 to ’13, so we can go by individuals, rather than by positions.
a. CC Sabathia. We’ve discussed him at length already. He knows he has to pitch much better for the 2014 Yankees to have any sort of chance of contention, and he was typically humble and accountable during a Tuesday news conference as he acknowledged he needs to get better about preparing for starts.
b. Phil Hughes. We’ll never know precisely how much money the impending free agent cost himself with his ’13 plummet. Suffice it to say, it’s a lot. I still wouldn’t write him off completely as a pitcher, but it’ll be elsewhere.
c. David Phelps. Remember him? He got lost in the fog of bigger names getting injured, but he was terrific for the Yankees last year as a starter/long reliever. They really could have used him as the pitching turned for the worse in September (he was activated recently, but hasn’t built up much strength).
d. Hiroki Kuroda. He just didn’t have as much gas in the tank as he did last year, it seems. I’d give him the qualifying offer of one year and about $14 million, but if he turns that down, I’m not sure it’s worth paying him much beyond that, even in a one-year deal. There has to be some concern as he turns 39 next February.
Two other thoughts:
1. Yeah, we really can’t discuss the injuries enough. While the Yankees have to take some accountability for not preparing better for Jeter, the Teixeira mess and Curtis Granderson’s double injuries were pretty much bad luck and not much else. Had those two stayed healthy and put together characteristic campaigns, the Yankees probably would still be in the race right now. And the Brett Gardner departure earlier this month was a killer, though it’s unrealistic to expect more than the 145 games they got from him.
2. Would anyone on these 2013 Yankees rank as a “pleasant surprise”? Someone who vastly exceeded expectations? Maybe you’d put Ivan Nova in that box, as he had fallen so far. That’s probably it, though — and that was part of the problem. Blame the minor-league development people and blame the front office for not finding more waiver-wire-type gems as it has in the past, but the roster depth turned from a strength in prior years to a clear weakness.
AL: Boston (1) vs. winner of Tampa Bay (WC1) and Cleveland (WC2), Oakland (2) vs. Detroit (3)
NL: Atlanta (1) vs. winner of Pittsburgh (WC1) and Cincinnati (WC2), St. Louis (2) vs. Dodgers (3)
Notes: The Braves regained the top seed in the National League with a 7-1 win Thursday night over the Phillies.