Colts vs. Chiefs (Saturday, 4:30 p.m.. NBC)
Colts offense vs. Chiefs defense
QB Andrew Luck (23 TDs, nine INTs, 60.2 completion percentage) is the focal point of the Indianapolis offense. The Colts’ offensive line has kept Luck clean recently, allowing only three sacks in the past three games. After struggling for a while without injured WR Reggie Wayne, Luck enters the playoff hot, having completed 67 percent of his passes with six TDs and only one INT in the final four games. Receivers T.Y. Hilton, Da’Rick Rogers, LaVon Brazill and Griff Whalen are trying to fill the void without Wayne. Chiefs LBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are ferocious pass rushers, each with 11 sacks.
Edge:Â Colts
Chiefs offense vs. Colts defense
The Kansas City offense is all about RB Jamaal Charles, who finished third in the NFL with 1,287 rushing yards and a league-high 12 rushing TDs. The Colts enter the playoffs on a three-game winning streak, during which their defense has forced eight turnovers and totaled 11 sacks. Chiefs QB Alex Smith was sacked four times in the teams’ previous meeting when the Colts held the Chiefs to 287 yards of total offense. Smith committed only 10 turnovers all season, but three came against Indianapolis. The Colts, led by 19½ sacks from DE Robert Mathis, did not allow more than 10 points in any of their final three games.
Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
The Chiefs return game could be the difference in the game, with kick returner Quintin Demps averaging 30.1 yards per return. The unit is ranked No. 1 in the AFC and third in the NFL. On punts, KC’s Dexter McCluster is third in the AFC with an 11.8-yard average. Chiefs K Ryan Succup is just 22 of 28 on FGs, including a missed 41-yarder last week that cost the Chiefs a win over the Chargers. Colts K Adam Vinatieri remains one of the best of all time, with 139 points this season on 35 of 40 FGs.
Edge: Chiefs
Coaching
Kansas City’s Andy Reid is a favorite for Coach of the Year honors, leading the Chiefs from a losing culture to a 9-0 start. Reid, who came to the Chiefs after a long successful run in Philadelphia, has more postseason experience and success than Colts head coach Chuck Pagano, though Pagano, a terrific motivator, should not be discounted.
Edge: Even
Player to watch: Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
Charles ran for 106 yards on 13 carries in the first matchup between the teams on Dec. 22 (a 23-7 Colts win in Kansas City). But 37 of those yards came on the Chiefs’ opening series, meaning the Indy defense held him to only 69 yards the rest of the game. Charles can catch the ball, too, as evidenced by his 195 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 15.
PREDICTION: COLTS 23, CHIEFS 21
The Colts are simply the hotter team on both sides of the ball, with Luck finally having figured out life without Wayne after a rocky few weeks. The Colts defense, too, is playing its best all season. Playing at home doesn’t hurt either. The Chiefs peaked too early with that 9-0 start and have been inconsistent since.
— Mark Cannizzaro
Eagles vs. Saints (Saturday, 8 p.m., NBC)
Eagles offense vs. Saints defense
Nick Foles rang up the third-highest single season passer rating in NFL history (119.2) after throwing 27 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, but the foundation of Chip Kelly’s no-huddle attack is still a fearsome ground game powered by league rushing champion LeSean McCoy. Even backups Bryce Brown and Chris Polk are dangerous. That isn’t good news for the Saints, who finished fourth overall in total defense in Rob Ryan’s first year, but were just 19th against the run while allowing a hideous 4.6 yards per carry.
Edge: Eagles
Saints offense vs. Eagles defense
Drew Brees & Co. rang up a ton of yards, as usual, but converting them into points proved uncharacteristically difficult — especially on the road and particularly when the Saints faced a competent defense. New Orleans scored just 36 points in its final three road games combined, but the Saints get the NFL’s worst pass defense this week. The Eagles gave up 358 passing yards to Kyle Orton last Sunday in his first NFL start since 2011, which tells you all you need to know.
Edge: Saints
Special teams
The Eagles’ DeSean Jackson isn’t nearly the terrifying punt-return threat he once was, and Philadelphia didn’t get a single touchdown out of its entire return game in 2013. But Donnie Jones is one of the league’s top punters and Alex Henery hasn’t missed a field goal since Week 10. The Saints’ special teams are a mess aside from Pro Bowl punter Thomas Morstead, and they’re on their second kicker (Shayne Graham) since mid-December.
Edge: Eagles
Coaching
Chip Kelly has quieted the skeptics who scoffed at the idea of a college coach with no NFL experience succeeding at this level using a no-huddle offense centered on the option, although Kelly’s clock management and some of his in-game decisions are still shaky. Sean Payton’s decision to hire Ryan worked out well, but the Saints limped into the playoffs at 11-5 after a 9-2 start and have been inconsistent lately on offense — Payton’s specialty.
Edge: Eagles
Player to watch: Eagles RB LeSean McCoy
Brees is one of the most prolific quarterbacks in league history, but there won’t be a more exciting player on the field in this game than McCoy. The Eagles’ speedy, shifty running back has flourished in Kelly’s scheme, breaking team records and becoming the first Eagles player since Steve Van Buren in 1949 to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,607 yards. McCoy is dangerous both running and receiving, and if you let him get to the edge and turn the corner, it’s usually game over.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 34, SAINTS 24
History is working against the Eagles — they haven’t won a home playoff game since 2005 — but they’re on a roll after ending the regular season on a 7-1 run. New Orleans still can’t win on the road (it was 3-5 this year), which doesn’t bode well for a final seed with no possibility of a home game in the postseason. The good times in Philly will continue for another week.
— Bart Hubbuch
Bengals vs. Chargers (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS)
Bengals offense vs. Chargers defense
Bengals QB Andy Dalton has had a very inconsistent season. He can be brilliant one week and look lost the next — as evidenced by his 33 TDs to go with 20 INTs. Dalton’s top targets are WR A.J. Green (98 catches for 1,426 yards and 11 TDs) and Marvin Jones (51 catches and 10 TDs). The Bengals rushing attack is two-headed, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard combining for 1,451 yards and 12 rushing TDs. In Cincinnati’s Week 13 win over San Diego, Green-Ellis ran for 92 yards and a TD and Bernard added 57 rushing yards. The Chargers defense, which is not star-laden, allowed at least 25 points six times in the first 11 games, but held opponents to an average of 18 points during the 4-1 stretch to end the regular season.
Edge:Â Bengals
Chargers offense vs. Bengals defense
The Chargers offense, ranked fifth overall, is centered around QB Philip Rivers, who has been prolific with 4,478 yards, 32 TDs, just 11 INTs and a NFL-best 69.6 completion percentage. Rivers is complemented by RB Ryan Mathews, who has averaged 25 touches and 120 yards per game since Week 11. Rivers’ targets are led by TE Antonio Gates (77 catches, 4 TDs) and rookie TE Ladarius Green, who has 17 catches and 3 TDs. WRs Keenan Allen (71 catches) and Eddie Royal (47) combined for 16 TDs with eight apiece. The Bengals’ pass rush, which must pressure Rivers, is led by DEs Carlos Dunlap and Wallace Gilberry, who have 7 ½ sacks each. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict is the leading tackler with 113.
Edge: Chargers
Special teams
The Chargers are not very dynamic in the return game with Danny Woodhead averaging 21.8 yards on kickoffs and Allen averaging 8.3 yards on punts. K Nick Novak is having a great season, making 34 of 37 FGs. Bengals K Mike Nugent is dependable and clutch, 18 of 22 on FGs. In the return game, Brandon Tate averages 26.1 yards on kickoffs and 9.3 yards on punts.
Edge: Even
Coaching
San Diego’s Mike McCoy is a rookie head coach and has done a strong job leading his team from a poor start to become one of the hottest, most dangerous teams in the playoffs. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, who’s been in place for 11 years, has not won a playoff game as a head coach, losing four wild-card games. The Bengals, however, are 8-0 at home this season, so something has got to give.
Edge: Chargers
Player to watch: Chargers RB Danny Woodhead
The 5-foot-8 Woodhead is a not-so-secret weapon. He does everything, with 429 rushing yards and two rushing TDs to go with 76 receptions and six receiving TDs. He is Rivers’ safety outlet and makes clutch plays for the Chargers that prove to be backbreakers for opponents.
PREDICTION: CHARGERS 28, BENGALS 24
San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league and has one of the most potent offensive attacks in the game. Cincinnati doesn’t know which Dalton is going to show up. This one should be close, because the Bengals are great at home, but in the end the Chargers will have too much firepower for the Cincy defense.
— Cannizzaro
Packers vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:30 p.m., Fox)
Packers offense vs. 49ers defense
Green Bay finished third in the league in offense and eighth in scoring, which is even more impressive when you consider the Packers played nearly half their games without Aaron Rodgers. They also have a legitimately scary run game now with impressive rookie Eddie Lacy (1,178 yards). The 49ers ended up fifth in total defense but looked awfully leaky late, giving up more than 400 yards in each of their final two games.
Edge: Packers
49ers offense vs. Packers defense
San Francisco is an anomaly — a running team in a league that has been taken over by wide-open passing attacks. The 49ers come in ranked third in rushing but just 30th in passing, yet it’s a formula that works because quarterback Colin Kaepernick can be just as dangerous with his feet as running back Frank Gore. That’s something the Packers’ defense knows all too (painfully) well the past two seasons, and Green Bay’s task won’t be any easier this week with Clay Matthews sidelined.
Edge: 49ers
Special teams
The 49ers boast solid return and coverage units, but their real strengths are the specialists. Punter Andy Lee is a three-time first team All-Pro and averaged almost 50 yards a punt this season, while ageless kicker Phil Dawson impressively converted 14 of his 17 attempts from beyond 40 yards. Green Bay’s return game is a threat with Micah Hyde, but its coverage units were awful. Kicker Mason Crosby bounced back strongly from a woeful 2012.
Edge: 49ers
Coaching
Jim Harbaugh weathered two storms this season (a 1-2 start and consecutive losses in November) and brings in a team that finished with a flourish, winning its final six games. Mike McCarthy did an admirable job enabling the Packers to survive Rodgers missing seven games with an injured collarbone, but his stubbornness in sticking with defensive coordinator Dom Capers will end up being Green Bay’s undoing — again.
Edge: 49ers
Player to watch: 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick
The Packers’ reward for sneaking into the playoffs in Week 17 was really no reward at all — a date with Kaepernick, their personal tormenter the past two seasons. The San Francisco quarterback has destroyed Green Bay with both his legs and his arm in victories the past two seasons, rushing for an NFL playoff record 181 yards and two touchdowns at Candlestick Park last January before roasting them for 412 yards and three touchdowns through the air in the same spot in this year’s season opener.
PREDICTION: 49ERS 31, PACKERS 14
Harbaugh’s arrival three years ago changed the dynamic of this series in dramatic fashion. The 49ers have beaten Green Bay in all three meetings under Harbaugh after losing 13 of the previous 14 matchups dating to 1996. San Francisco also was 6-2 on the road during the regular season, which helps explain why the Packers — despite their famously enormous waiting list — had more than 15,000 seats unsold for this game early in the week.
— Hubbuch