INDIANAPOLIS — No one gave 11th-seeded George Mason — a nine-point underdog — a chance against No. 1 UConn in 2006. No one gave 11th-seeded VCU — an 11-point underdog — a chance against No. 1 Kansas in 2011.
Now, comes 11th-seeded Dayton against No. 1 Florida.
Dayton: “Hit me with it. Just give it to me straight. It’s taken me 30 years to get here. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances against Florida?”
Howie Hoops: “Not good.”
Dayton: “Not good like one out of three?”
Howie Hoops: “More like one out of 10.”
Dayton: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
You know what? I am.
Dayton (+10) over Florida: The narrative goes that the Gators are in their fourth straight Elite Eight and there’s no way this senior-led group won’t get to the Final Four this time. Why? The nation’s No. 1 team has spent the first three games of the NCAA Tournament showing how many holes it has on offense, an attack that is well below-average if Michael Frazier isn’t hitting from deep. The Flyers showed in their first two games of the tournament how well they play against defensively dominant teams — Ohio State and Syracuse — and they defend well enough to keep Florida’s unreliable offense out of sorts all game. This will be the Gators’ biggest scare so far.
Wisconsin (+3) over Arizona: The Wildcats may have the best defense in the country, but the Badgers’ offense is as dangerous as that of any team still left in the tournament. The pace will be slower and the score lower than Wisconsin likes, but Arizona has struggled against some of the top offenses this year, losing to Oregon and UCLA in the past month. It’s a coin-flip game with two teams worthy of the Final Four. So, take the points.
2014 record: 28-17-1 (before Friday night)
2011-13 record: 72-47-2
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