A funny thing happened on the way to the guillotine for Jerry Manuel — he began to work on a contract extension.
The last time the Mets and Yankees got together, Manuel was fighting for his job. Now he is fighting for first place.
He is not safe, of course. The Mets are not going to either pick up his 2011 option or extend his contract until after the season. But the Mets are playing hard, smart and well, which reflects that they did not lay down on a manager in trouble and, instead, rallied behind him in the way that, say, the Orioles never did for Dave Trembley or the Royals for Trey Hillman.
A June surge, however, clearly is not going to be enough to save Manuel. But what is?
The killer, obviously, would be poor play that takes the Mets out of any race, and another late-season collapse that looks like those of the 2007 and ‘08 seasons would force the Mets to try a new voice.
But what if the Mets, say, continue to play hard and well, win 88 games, yet that is not enough to make the playoffs because Atlanta and Philadelphia win more? Does that save Manuel’s job. Or does he have to make the playoffs? Or win a round? Or go to the World Series?
Aside from making brief comments after flying to Atlanta at one of Manuel’s crisis moments this year, Jeff Wilpon has maintained silence on the job security of Omar Minaya and Manuel. He will have the last call, obviously, but when I asked Minaya if he believed there was any prescribed level that the Mets needed to reach to save Manuel’s job for 2011 — and perhaps beyond — the GM said, “I don’t have anything in mind and I haven’t heard anything like that [from Mets ownership].”
Naturally, outside influences are going to play into the final decision. Mets officials privately have said that if they continue in this race they are going to try for Cliff Lee and accept nothing worse than a quality No. 3 starter while also trying to augment the bullpen. That means more payroll and expectations and the expense of a few prospects. So the stakes will rise.
“My hope is that Jerry does well, obviously,” Minaya said. “I am a big believer in stability. The best organizations are stable. But, like anything else, we will review it at the end of the year.”
At that time, the Mets will have a full picture of how Manuel did. His 2010 scorecard will be complete. Did he nurture young players such as Ike Davis and Jenrry Mejia through their rookie seasons? Was he able to find a way to get something out of John Maine or Oliver Perez? Was he able to find a way to productively use Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan in a center-field/right-field rotation? Was he able to keep the team playing hard, smart and well through the course of an entire campaign?
But there also will be another large question at the end of the year: If not Manuel, then who?
In other words before the Mets move to the next option, they need to be certain that the next option is better than the current one.
Bob Melvin has been cast as the front-runner. But, again, let’s say the Mets win those 88 games — would they really believe Melvin is the man to find more wins? Are they ready to turn to someone flammable currently working in the organization such as Terry Collins or Wally Backman?
Are they ready to pay big for a marquee manager? Ownership never has seemed gung-ho about reuniting with Bobby Valentine or bringing in Buck Showalter, and both of those guys already are in play for the Orioles job.
It is possible Joe Torre will become fed up with the Dodgers’ ownership mess and become a managerial free agent. But he seems comfortable now away from New York and the Mets don’t seem ready to pay a manager $5 million-plus a year.
However, the biggest question almost certain to come at the end of this season is when Met executives ponder if Manuel is really the person best equipped to lead them into the future. At that point, Mets officials will have had a 21⁄2-year overview of Manuel’s work to determine if he is a World Series manager.
“I think that, and I thought it when we brought Jerry in,” Minaya said. “I thought he did well after he took over in 2008 and we were in first place last year when all the injuries hit. It was all of us last year that were part of things going wrong, not just Jerry. No manager can succeed without his best players on the field. We have had our best players mostly on the field again, and Jerry is doing well.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com