The kids are not alright.
Teenagers — traditionally some of the most resilient consumers of discretionary goods like apparel — are not spending at their usual robust rate this summer, hampered in large part by a lack of cash amid the worst job market since the late 1940s.
The latest evidence of teenagers not spending: heavy markdowns at the retail chains that cater to them.
So far this month, the average price of an item of clothing sold at teen mainstay Abercrombie & Fitch has tumbled more than 40 percent from last month, according to Brean Murray analyst Eric Beder.
That’s an “alarming” rate that doesn’t augur well for profits as teen retailers gear up for the crucial back-to-school season, he adds.
“Back-to-school is going to be discount-filled and very aggressive in terms of promotions and pricing,” Beder told The Post. While industry surveys last week predicted back-to-school sales would rise more than 5 percent, Beder sees only slight increases for teen-apparel retailers, and warns that most gains will be driven by heavy, margin-squeezing discounts.
A recent slowdown in demand has surprised many retailers, which had upped their back-to-school inventory bets following brisk but short-lived demand for spring fashions.
Even more shocking has been the depth of the doldrums, driven by what some experts say is the worst job market for teens in decades as cost-conscious companies clamp down on hiring. And in cases where stores do hire, there is mounting evidence that out-of-work twenty- and thirty-something job candidates are taking positions that would normally go to teens.
Last month, unemployment among 16-to-19-year olds soared to 29 percent from 27.8 percent a year ago, according to federal statistics.
And the outlook isn’t much better. Employment services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said job growth in that age group is the slowest it’s been in more than 60 years of recordkeeping.
“A lot of the jobs that traditionally went to teens are being taken by 20-to-24-year-olds,” said CEO John A. Challenger. “Retailers at the mall are hiring 35-year-olds with more experience. Even with mowing lawns and painting houses, it seems like there’s a lot of people who want those jobs now.”
Whether employed or not, most teens are being kept on a tighter leash, says Britt Beemer, president of America’s Research Group. In addition to the shaky jobs market, parents have become more budget-conscious as they face down debts.
And that means less cash available to spend at the mall.
Teen retailers like American Eagle Outfitters, Aeropostale and Wet Seal have already begun discounting goods during the first weeks of the back-to-school season — a time that is usually rife with profit-producing full-price sales — a bad sign for the crucial fall and holidays.
UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer noted that about half of the apparel retailers she follows are currently staging heavier discounts than a year ago. james.covert@nypost.com