As the great political analyst Jay-Z has observed, New York is “a concrete jungle where dreams are made of.” Perhaps the logic of that lyric eludes you. It shouldn’t, especially if you’re a Democrat. For today, this concrete jungle is the only place in America where a Democratic dream might be made of.
Prefer your wisdom from Billy Joel? Here it is: If all but one of the major national pollsters are right and there is a GOP blowout today that will make its 1994 blowout seem modest by comparison, Democrats will have to console themselves by placing themselves in a New York State of Mind.
There is literally no other state out of the 50 in which Democrats are certain to win every major race, and by substantial margins. Start spreading the news (OK, I’ll stop now).
First off, our two senatorial incumbents, both Democrats who are anomalously running on the same day, are on the verge of electoral triumphs.
Kirsten Gillibrand’s assured victory is both surprising and impressive. She was appointed to the job last year when Hillary Clinton left the Senate to be secretary of state. Gillibrand has established no visible connection to the voters, doesn’t have much to say and isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer.
But the combination of her own winning demeanor and a sadly hapless opponent in Joe DioGuardi — whose key debate line was, I’m not kidding, “what this state really needs is an accountant in Washington” — have ensured Gillibrand another two years with the word “senator” before her name. (State rules require her to run again in 2012.)
Chuck Schumer’s third senatorial win, though even more in the bag than his colleague’s, is far more important. With the likelihood that Majority Leader Harry Reid will go down to defeat in Nevada today, our man in Washington will be a serious contender for Reid’s leadership position. And if Democrats maintain control of the Senate (a big if), Schumer could be among the most powerful men in America come January. If they lose, he could be Senate minority leader, which isn’t chopped liver, either.
The real story here is, of course, Andrew Cuomo’s ascension. For, by winning on a night when everybody else is losing, Cuomo immediately establishes himself as a national leader of a decimated Democratic Party.
His victory was probably a foregone conclusion, though surely this suffering state deserved better than having his only serious opposition come from a Republican candidate who seems only marginally more suited for office than Jimmy McMillan, the viral sensation who stars as head of the one-man reality show called the “Rent Is Too Damn High Party.”
Speaking of McMillan, one of this evening’s side shows will be seeing how many votes he gets. The number could be substantial. I know several people disgusted by Carl Paladino who are sorely tempted to cast their ballot for him just to see whether his party might clear 50,000 votes and secure its place on next year’s electoral ballot.
A strong case can be made that those people would be better served by casting their vote for Cuomo. It is clear that Cuomo understands the nature of the challenge facing him, and that he can only succeed if he manages to stand up against and face down the public-sector unions whose contracts and guarantees ensure New York will go the way of California (and Greece) over the next 10 years unless they are substantially altered.
Cuomo needs all the leverage he can possibly get to undertake that fight, and a massive mandate from the people of New York would constitute precisely such leverage. This would be a Democrat acting more like a Republican, and angering a key constituency of his party when he might wish to seek higher office still.
But wouldn’t establishing independence from an entrenched liberal power base be exactly the right path for a Democrat who truly takes heed of the expected results of tonight’s nationwide balloting?
For some Republican voters, pulling the lever for Cuomo would be a hell of a tough call. But then, this is a helluva town.
johnpodhoretz@gmail.com