It is near impossible to find a baseball official or agent who thinks Derek Jeter will play for any team but the Yankees next season.
Thus, these negotiations are akin to a James Bond movie: You know the end (Bond will survive) before the film even begins, and the intrigue is about how you get there.
Already we have some intrigue with Jeter actually reaching the open market; so this process will not be painless. Yankees officials have acknowledged they plan to overpay Jeter despite his declining on-field abilities because of his historic and off-field significance. However, Jeter will have a different view of his current skills and value away from the field.
As one AL executive who has negotiated several times against Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, said: “Casey would not be doing his job if he did not begin by asking for the stars and the moon. [Jeter] is the main guy in his stable, and so he just can’t capitulate at the first offer. But I would be shocked if minds did not come together to form a compromise.”
One potentially interesting date in these negotiations arrives in 13 days. It is not exactly as thrilling as a buzz saw moving within inches of Bond’s head. But Nov. 23 is the final date teams can offer arbitration to their free agents, and a week later is the final date players can accept or reject that offer.
So in 13 days — assuming no new deal — the Yankees will insert a twist into this process by either offering or not offering arbitration. There are key precedents on both sides.
Greg Maddux was 36 (the same age Jeter is now) when he completed a five-year, $57.5 million contract with the Braves in 2002. Like Jeter, Maddux had Hall of Fame credentials, did not want to leave and his final season on the multi-year pact was arduous as multiple injuries limited Maddux to his fewest innings since his rookie campaign. Atlanta offered arbitration, Maddux accepted and before a hearing the sides agreed at $14.75 million (then a one-year record).
Randy Johnson completed a two-year, $26 million contract with the Diamondbacks in 2008. Like Jeter with 3,000 hits, Johnson was sitting five wins short of 300. But, like the Yankees with Jeter, Arizona wanted to cut Johnson’s pay and refused to offer arbitration. The sides did not agree to terms and Johnson moved to the Giants.
So will the Yanks follow the Maddux or Johnson model? There was a split among more than a dozen executives asked what would occur if the arbitration date were reached, though the majority thought the Yanks would offer arbitration and Jeter would reject because he would never accept a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at this stage of his career. Instead, he would just keep negotiating with the Yankees beyond that date.
If the Yankees believe Jeter will reject they certainly should offer arbitration because other teams interested in Jeter already have to be chilled about offering an older, declining player huge money on a multi-year deal. And if the Yankees offer arbitration, a team that signs Jeter would lose its first-round draft pick to the Yankees as well.
If the Yankees offered arbitration and Jeter accepted, that would bind the sides for just one year, which would be perfect for the Yankees: covering the period in which he would reach 3,000 hits while limiting their long-term exposure with an aging player.
However, if Jeter actually accepts, the Yankees face peril in how much he could ask for and win in arbitration. Yes, Jeter had his worst season, but a veteran agent said “special qualities of leadership and public appeal” could be argued in arbitration. One NL executive said Jeter would ask for no less than $25 million because “his platform year [2010] was not great, but his resume, fan appeal and career are all great. His length of consistency and special accomplishments are great and — believe me — Casey is not going to shy away from arguing every one of those.”
Plus, this is a forum in which Jeter could try to beat his frenemy Alex Rodriguez, not in total dollars but with a one-year contract for more than the average annual value ($27.5 million) of A-Rod’s 10-year contract. Before you say “no way,” understand what one veteran of the process said of arguing before three arbitrators who might not be baseball fans but will definitely know who Jeter is: “At some point the stats all become mind-numbing and so do comparables to other players. The arbitrators get attracted to special accomplishments.”
The Yankees know this first-hand. After the 1998 season Jeter had stats similar to Johnny Damon’s, but made far more ($5 million to $2.1 million) by winning in arbitration because, as someone involved in that process recalled, Close “did a great job selling [Jeter’s] special accomplishments.”
It remains unlikely Jeter and the Yankees will ever see arbitration again. But, as with Bond, it is often about the unexpected twists along the way before the obvious conclusion.