The deadly weekend clashes in Cairo demand reexamination of some clichés that have distorted our perceptions of the Arab Spring — and specifically its Egyptian version.
At least 25 people, almost all Christian Copts, were killed Sunday in clashes with the military, which has ruled Egypt since February, when Hosni Mubarak ended his near-30 years of one-man rule. More than 300 people were injured in the clashes, which also involved Islamist militants.
It was the toughest test yet for Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces — and that interim government flunked it.
It started when some 10,000 Copts, angry at several recent incidents of religious discrimination, marched peacefully in central Cairo. Troops rushed to the scene, then shot indiscriminately at demonstrators and ran over bleeding bodies with armored vehicles.
Yes, Egypt’s revolution was never as “bloodless” as so glowingly portrayed in some outlets, but Sunday’s bloodbath should end any notion that the Arab world’s transition to democracy will be peaceful.
While we’re at it, let’s also do away with “Facebook revolution.”
Sure, some Cairo students may have initially social-networked for mobilization. But more than 60 percent of Egyptians can’t functionally read or write, so the idea that such modernity could instantly catch on was always a fantasy (and one much more widespread in the West than among Arabs).
As this weekend’s events amply demonstrate, the quality of communication is more important than its speed; indeed, events in Egypt are often ignited by mis- and disinformation.
Early on Sunday, Egypt’s state TV started running unfounded stories about Copts shooting and killing government soldiers. This came on top of reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had offered to send troops to protect Egypt’s Christians (a fantasy that any rudimentary familiarity with current US politics would immediately dispel). As they heard the first media “reports” of Copt violence, Salafists and other Islamists immediately joined in fighting the infidels.
“Communication” thus led the way to the slaughter.
Nor did it stop there. By the time the bloodbath ended, everyone — from top generals to the media to the major presidential contenders — had begun to rue “divisions” in Egypt’s society, and then to blame Israel, America and other “hidden hands” for instigating the violence.
It was as ridiculous as when Egyptians believed that sharks frightening Sinai tourists were trained by the Mossad.
Which brings us to another our dangerous assumption: that the transition to a pluralistic society, where they’ll enjoy more rights, will eventually prompt dedicated Islamists to drop their militancy.
The Copts, now some 10 percent of Egypt’s population of 80 million, have long suffered government discrimination and the ire of the Muslim majority. But since Mubarak’s fall, they’ve suffered far worse: Church burnings, attacks on families that tolerate mixed marriages and gratuitous violence against Christian neighborhoods have grown common.
Fear of a future dominated by Muslim intolerance was in fact the main spur of Sunday’s march.
That fear is real: After amassing enough power, the Muslim Brotherhood types may well drop any notion of the pluralism they now vaguely hint at.
Claims that Egypt’s Islamists will morph into a version of Turkey’s ruling party aren’t very realistic. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may dream of turning Turkey into a neo-Ottoman Islamist theocracy, but he’d first have to overcome nearly a century of secular traditions in a constitutional republic.
Egypt has no such traditions. It’s emerging from longtime one-man rule into an unknown future.
The most populous country in the Arab world, and arguably the most critical to its future, Egypt is reaching a tipping point — with the most apocalyptic scenarios becoming increasingly realistic.
America can still help harness Arab yearning for freedom into a better future — but first we need to recognize events for what they are, not what we want them to be. You don’t understand huge societal shifts just by assigning them a Twitter hashtag.