A year ago, the Jets went into Indianapolis to play the Colts and talked themselves into thinking they could knock off the AFC favorites.
For the first 28 minutes of the AFC Championship, it worked, but then the Colts took over and dusted the Jets 30-17, scoring the game’s final 24 points en route to the Super Bowl.
Tomorrow, the stakes aren’t as high, but the Jets will play the Colts in another playoff elimination game at Lucas Oil Field ‹ the wild-card game ‹ and the Jets believe they’re better-equipped to win this time thanks to a number of offseason acquisitions.
Here’s a look at how we see the game breaking down:
JETS PASS OFFENSE vs COLTS PASS DEFENSE
Mark Sanchez improved from his rookie year, most notably cutting down his turnovers (23 to 14). He’s smarter, more experienced and has more weapons to throw to. Braylon Edwards (53 catches, 7 TDs) has been the most consistent, with only one drop this season. Santonio Holmes (52 catches, 6 TDs in 12 games) has been the most clutch receiver. TE Dustin Keller (55 catches, 5 TDs) led the team in receptions. Jerricho Cotchery (41 catches, 2 TDs) is perhaps the most dependable. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (52 catches) is the best check-down receiver as a safety blanket. Sanchez loves to connect with Edwards and Holmes on quick slants. The Colts, who are ranked 13th against the pass, don’t pick off a lot of passes (10 INTs). CB Kelvin Hayden leads the team with two, both of which he returned for touchdowns. The Jets’ biggest concern here is the Colts’ two defensive ends ‹ Dwight Freeney (10 sacks) and Robert Mathis (11 sacks). These two can wreck a game. The pressure is on Jets LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson and RT Damien Woody to keep Sanchez upright. EDGE: JETS
JETS RUN OFFENSE vs COLTS RUN DEFENSE
This figures to be Shonn Greene time for the Jets considering his current form and how well he ran against the Colts in the playoff game last year before breaking his ribs. Greene (766 yards, 4.1-yard average, 2 TDs) has been running stronger than Tomlinson (914 yards, 4.2-yard average, 6 TDs) of late. The Colts’ defense is ranked 25th in the NFL but has played well the last month. The Colts allowed 142.8 rushing yards per game in the first 12 games and in the last four have allowed only 79.8 per. Colts DTs Daniel Muir (312 pounds) and Fili Moala (303) are stout in the middle, and MLB Gary Brackett is as active as ever. The Jets have been featuring the Wildcat with Brad Smith, so expect to see more of it. EDGE: JETS
COLTS PASS OFFENSE vs JETS PASS DEFENSE
Don’t be fooled by Peyton Manning’s 17 interceptions, the most he’s thrown since 2002. Eleven came during a three-game stretch as he adjusted to several key players being injured and out for the season. Manning is as dangerous as ever, having thrown for 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns. He’s just doing it with different personnel and not going downfield as much. The Colts go with longer, more sustained drives now. WR Reggie Wayne remains Manning’s top target. He finished second in the NFL with 111 catches and third with 1,355 yards. Pierre Garcon (67 catches, 6 TDs) is also a force, and someone who hurt the Jets in the AFC title game. TE Jacob Tamme has replaced the injured Dallas Clark well, catching 67 passes. And, in the absence of injured slot WR Austin Collie, Blair White has 36 catches. Jets CB Darrelle Revis will match up with Wayne and CB Antonio Cromartie will likely mark Garcon. That leaves nickel back Drew Coleman on White as well as helping out the safeties on Tamme. EDGE: COLTS
COLTS RUN OFFENSE vs JETS RUN DEFENSE
This is an area the Jets need to win. The Colts’ rushing offense is ranked 29th in the NFL, but lead RB Joseph Addai is healthy after missing eight games. He hurt the Jets in the AFC title game last year with 80 yards. Donald Brown ran for 129 yards three games ago. Dominic Rhodes ran for 98 yards two games ago. The Jets, ranked third in run defense, believe they’ve tightened up their fundamentals after lapsing late in the season. Jets DLs Sione Pouha, Mike DeVito and Shaun Ellis, as well as LB David Harris, are the core of the run defense and should be able to keep the Colts’ rushing attack in check. EDGE: JETS
SPECIAL TEAMS
A possible deciding factor, as the Jets are better across the board. While Smith is second in the NFL in kickoff return average at 28.6 yards with two touchdowns, the Colts aren’t a threat with Rhodes averaging 21 yards. The Jets are No. 1 in the NFL in starting field position (31.5 yard line) while the Colts are last (22.7 yard line). EDGE: JETS
KICKING GAME
Jets P Steve Weatherford has had a better year than Indy’s Pat McAfee, placing an NFL-record 42 punts inside the 20. But Colts K Adam Vinatieri is one of the best big-game performers of all time and has missed only one field goal and had one blocked in 28 attempts this season. He, too, has made his last 17 attempts. Jets K Nick Folk is less-tested and is only 30-of-39 this year. EDGE: COLTS
COACHING
Rex Ryan is an emotional leader. The Colts’ Jim Caldwell is more cerebral. It’s hard to argue that Ryan has the edge considering Caldwell is coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Ryan is a fabulous motivator and will surely have his players stoked for the game. He has been a bit shaky on some in-game coaching moves this season, though, including some clock-management glitches. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is a key to this game. He’s been in sync with Sanchez the last few weeks after a rough patch. He can’t stray from the team’s bread and butter, the running game. EDGE: EVEN
INTANGIBLES
The Colts are home, where they were 6-2 this season and are 60-12 since 2002. The loud dome crowd can be as unnerving as Manning’s pre-snap antics. The Jets are 6-2 on the road this season and 13-6 overall under Ryan. EDGE: COLTS
PREDICTION
The Jets are deeper across the board. The Colts’ most significant edge is Manning. Look for the Jets to have more success running the ball with a healthy Greene than the Colts will with their array of backs. Manning will hurt the Jets’ defense at some points. The key is minimizing the damage, which the Jets will do with Revis and Cromartie controlling the outside receivers. Nickel back Coleman and safeties Brodney Pool and Eric Smith must hold down the inside, where the Jets have been soft defensively. Look for a crisp, low-mistake game from Sanchez. That, combined with the better running game will be the difference. JETS 31, COLTS 24
mcannizzaro@nypost.com