Even before I’ll Have Another won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness to set himself up for the Triple Crown in tomorrow¹s 144th Belmont Stakes, he already was the most famous racehorse in the world.
Every day millions of people, whether sipping coffee in a diner or ordering beer at a bar, say his name: “I’ll have another!”
But seriously, I’ll Have Another has a ways to go — 11/2 miles, to be exact — before he can be mentioned in the same breath with the last three Triple Crown heroes: Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978).
Much has changed since the 1970s, when — following the 25-year drought between Citation and Secretariat — Triple Crown winners seemed commonplace. Now that the losing streak has reached 33 years, everyone agrees that winning the Triple Crown, never an easy task, has become much harder.
The number of near-misses since Affirmed runs to 18: the 11 horses that won the Derby and Preakness but stumbled in the Belmont; and seven others who won the Belmont and one of the previous two jewels: Swale, Risen Star, Hansel, Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, Point Given and Afleet Alex.
So if I’ll Have Another does prevail in the “Test of the Champion,” he will have overcome hurdles his three predecessors never faced.
“I don¹t think I’ll Have Another has gotten his full due yet,” said Jerry Crawford, owner of Belmont rival Dullahan. “If he gets it done here Saturday, he¹ll not only be a worthy Triple Crown winner, he will have exceeded all possible expectations.”
Let¹s compare and contrast I’ll Have Another to the three immortals he is seeking to join.
THEY WERE GREAT GOING IN
Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were all 2-year-old champions who loomed Triple Crown threats going into the spring classics.
Secretariat was Horse of the Year at 2. Seattle Slew was undefeated. Affirmed proved his greatness by defeating Alydar — a Triple Crown champ in any other year — four of the six times they faced off before the Derby. Overall they were favored in 25-of-31 starts before the Triple Crown. I’ll Have Another was 1-for-3 as a 2-year-old, 43-1 in his first start this year (a victory in the Robert Lewis), and will be favored for the first time in the Belmont.
FOAL CROP SIZES
The thoroughbred foal crops — in other words, the number of possible competitors — in the years Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were born numbered 24,361 in 1970, 27,586 in 1974 and 28,271 in 1975. I’ll Have Another¹s foal crop of 2009 was 32,187. This number, though larger than the other three, actually might work in his favor. That’s because it is the smallest foal crop since 1979, and far below the 41,000 average since then.
FIELD SIZES
This might be the biggest hurdle I’ll Have Another must overcome.
Secretariat faced a total of 21 foes through his Triple Crown: 12 in the Derby, 5 in the Preakness, 4 in the Belmont. Seattle Slew, a total of 29 (14, 8, 7); Affirmed, 20 total (10, 6, 4).
I’ll Have Another will have faced many more opponents. He beat 19 horses in the Derby and 10 in the Preakness, and he takes on 11 more in the Belmont: that¹s a total of 40.
SPEED FIGURES
Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets, which measure a horse’s speed based on final time, track variant, ground lost and other factors (the lower the number, the better), called I’ll Have Another “a legitimate Triple Crown kind of horse.” He ran solid numbers — 4 1/2 and 2 1/2 — winning the Derby and Preakness.
By comparison, Secretariat ran a 3/4 in the Derby, a 3 in the Preakness and a 3/4 in the Belmont. Affirmed¹s numbers were 4-6-4. Seattle Slew’s — against what Friedman called “one of the weakest 3-year-old crops in history” — were 7-9-10.
RUNNING STYLE
Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all led gate-to-wire in the Belmont. I’ll Have Another has speed but seems unlikely to outrun Paynter for the early lead.
TRAINERS
Billy Turner hadn’t made much of an impact before Seattle Slew came along.
But Lucien Laurin won the Derby and Belmont with Riva Ridge the year before Secretariat’s Triple Crown; Laz Barrera saddled Bold Forbes to win the Derby and Belmont two years before Affirmed¹s.
Doug O’Neill, previously 0-for-2 in the Derby, had never run in the Preakness or Belmont before. But he’s been a top trainer on the southern California circuit for years, winning three Breeders¹ Cup races and training Lava Man to win seven Grade 1’s and earn over $5.2 million.
JOCKEYS
Before Ron Turcotte rode Secretariat, he rode Riva Ridge. Before Jean Cruguet rode Seattle Slew, he rode Hoist the Flag, a lock to win the 1971 Triple Crown before he was injured. Steve Cauthen, at age 18, became the youngest jockey ever to win the Triple Crown on Affirmed, but he was hardly a rookie. The previous year, he’d won Eclipse Awards as top apprentice rider and top jockey, and was Sports Illustrated¹s Sportsman of the Year.
Mario Gutierrez, 25, a newcomer to the big time, won the Derby and Preakness without ever having ridden at Churchill Downs or Pimlico. Now he’s riding for the first time at Belmont Park, with a handful of mounts to practice on today and tomorrow.
POTENTIAL PITFALLS
New York rules prohibit I’ll Have Another from wearing the Flair equine nasal strips he wore in his four victories this year. According to the company’s website: “Flair Strips can increase a horse’s stamina, allowing him to perform at full strength for longer periods of time, without becoming fatigued.”
But O’Neill and veterinarians we have talked to say it won’t make a difference. There is also the issue of whether I’ll Have Another will be negatively affected by being forced to move into the detention barn with the other Belmont runners. But that is a question all of them must answer.