Sports

All-heart champion nwill not be denied

TheE last two furlongs of the Belmont Stakes tomorrow will be one of the most enthralling sports spectacles ever staged in New York. Guaranteed. In that short span, lasting maybe 26 seconds, I¹ll Have Another will either claw his way to the lead and become the first Triple Crown hero in 34 years, the toast of the continent, or fatigue will finally claim him at the end of a long racing campaign and he will become just a memory like so many others who tried but failed.

Which one will it be?

It¹s not even close. By nightfall, against all the odds, I¹ll Have Another will be swathed in a blanket of white carnations, his name etched in history books and 120,000 fans at the track will cherish it for the rest of their lives as the day they saw a champion crowned.

It¹s going to be a day to remember.

BELMONT STAKES BETTOR’S GUIDE

I¹ll Have Another will win the Belmont Stakes because (a) he is indisputably superior to every horse in the race, proven in his last four triumphs (b) he is indisputably the fastest horse in the race with speed figures towering over his rivals and (c) everyone who has seen him train this week has been astonished at his stride, strength, muscle, coat, energy and power galloping miles around Belmont¹s tricky sand surface.But none of these alone will put him over the top. I¹ll Have Another will win the Belmont because he has that priceless quality sought in every thoroughbred: He is all heart and grit. Nobody has captured his essence better than Ron Anderson, the famous jockey agent, who said, ³He¹s like a Marine.²

No give. No retreat. No apology. No quarter. No excuse. Semper Fidelis! The prediction that I¹ll Have Another will be invincible tomorrow comes with this caveat ‹ I have been known to be wrong in the past. Often. The odds against I¹ll Have Another are staggering. So many truly fine horses, like Spectacular Bid, one of the greats of the 20th century, failed. So why should he succeed?

I¹ll Have Another¹s speed figures in his last three races are eye-popping. His Beyers have gone from 95 to 101 to 109. How high can he go without crashing?

He has had four hard winning races, especially his last, the Preakness, when he had to strain every muscle to get to Bodemeister at the wire. No wonder his trainer Doug O¹Neill has not dared breeze him since. He will be ridden by Mario Gutierrez, a jockey with zero experience at Belmont, a course to test the finesse of the best. Finally, he will probably start odds on.

You could make the case that since no horse has won the Triple Crown in 34 years, the true odds about I¹ll Have Another are 34-1. Instead, they will probably be 4-5. No wonder Thoro-Graph¹s Jerry Brown observed, ³That¹s a bad bet.²

In the past 10 years, only one favorite, Afleet Alex, has won the Belmont. The last four came in at 24-1, 13-1, 11-1, 38-1. As trainer Ken McPeek said, ³Weird things happen in the Belmont.²

So the deck is stacked every way against I¹ll Have Another, including the likelihood that he¹ll have a target on his back with every jockey in the race looking to find a way to beat him.

Dullahan, the second choice at 5-1, is a threat. He broke his maiden in a stakes race at Churchill Downs, uncorked a spectacular stretch run to win the Blue Grass on Keeneland¹s synthetic surface, then rattled home to get third in the Kentucky Derby.

His connections skipped the Preakness and have now brought him here for the Belmont, fresh and rarin¹ to go. His trainer, Dale Romans, who himself is breaking into the big leagues, won¹t hear of defeat. Paynter has only had four races for Bob Baffert, but he won his last, a two-turn allowance, by more than five lengths to hang up a huge (106) Beyer speed figure. He has since worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.1 at Belmont. He¹ll be the one they all have to catch.

Union Rags is an enigma. He promised the world last year and has pretty much delivered zip. If he runs to his reputation, he¹ll kill ¹em. Horsemen love him. They can¹t forget his brilliant wins in the Saratoga Special and the Champagne last year. If he rebounds, watch out. But I¹ll have to see to believe.

There are some interesting longshots: Atigun, Street Life and the latecomer My Adonis.

But none of them, to date, can hold a candle to the champ. In the last quarter, he¹s going to lift the roof off Belmont as the crowd goes bonkers, howling with excitement at every stride. It might be the experience of a lifetime.

Or at least, I think. I hope.