Zack Greinke (;Getty Images)
AGENTS OF CHANGE: Josh Hamilton’s (above) free-agent negotiations are on hold while his former team, the Rangers, pursues Zack Greinke (right) — keeping most deals for big-name players waiting for Grienke’s decision. (
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Zack Greinke is the dam of this baseball offseason.
Like a dam, the free-agent pitcher is blocking the natural flow of baseball winter activity. Until he resolves his situation — likely picking either the Rangers or Dodgers — the upper ends of the market will be at a relative standstill.
That is because Texas and Los Angeles are viewed as the biggest heavyweights in the marketplace. Few significant free agents want to make a decision until they know whether the Rangers and Dodgers can invest in them, and neither team can know that until it learns whether it is going to be spending on Greinke or not.
In fact, whatever Hail Mary chance the Yankees have to pull a complete U-turn and go for Josh Hamilton is tied up in Greinke reaching a decision.
The Rangers seem to prefer signing Greinke and dealing for a power bat to replace Hamilton, preferably the Diamondbacks’ Justin Upton, in what are currently ongoing three- and four-team trade scenarios. However, if Greinke goes to the Dodgers, the Rangers very well could unleash their big pile of money on Hamilton.
The belief is Hamilton badly wants to stay a Ranger. Thus, there is a sense teams are hesitant to even make an offer for the slugger until the Greinke matter is determined because a) Hamilton is just going to wait to see if Texas has the funds for him and b) outside clubs suspect he would simply just shop the offer back to the Rangers.
However, if the Rangers were to sign Greinke — and the perception was they were the favorites as the Winter Meetings in Nashville concluded on Thursday — then suddenly you could expect other teams to become bolder in dealing with Hamilton. After all, the expectation is Texas could not afford Greinke and Hamilton, thus the outfielder would have to find employment elsewhere. And this is where whatever small chance the Yankees have comes in.
If Hamilton is going for the either the biggest offer or for less bright lights-big city, then he will find that in Seattle, which appears to want him most, or perhaps even Milwaukee or Toronto (I just assume the Blue Jays are operating in a different way to go for it this offseason). The Mariners seem prepared to go at least five years for Hamilton, perhaps longer. Seattle has only about $30 million committed to players beyond 2013, though it would like to also extend Felix Hernandez, who could be a free agent after the 2014 season.
But if Hamilton decides he does not want to be so far off baseball’s beaten path and wants a place that would better feed his star power, and he is willing to do a three- or four-year deal to make that happen, a bunch of avenues would open. This is why, for example, I believe the Red Sox have stayed viable on Hamilton — on the off-chance he requires, say, a three-year, $75 million pact rather than a longer-term commitment. Red Sox officials met with Hamilton in Nashville, but their Yankees counterparts did not.
Nevertheless, if the length-of-contract request fell into that shorter-term arena — again, this is not how free agency generally works — the Yankees would, at minimum, reconsider their intractability on the subject. The ongoing debacle with Alex Rodriguez has chilled even the most aggressive elements of the Yankees organization about super long-term contracts and that would particularly be the case with Hamilton, who turns 32 in May, has a well-documented history with drug addiction and has shown to be physically brittle. But if suddenly Hamilton were willing to accept three or four years rather than six or seven …
Yes, the Yankees would still want to get under $189 million in 2014. But, in theory, the Yankees could decide Hamilton for three or four years is a better risk — with all of his issues — than Robinson Cano for eight to 10 years, and let Cano go as a free agent after the 2013 campaign. And, in 2013, they would have both, pretty much assuring a) one of the majors’ best offenses again even with the departures of Russell Martin, Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez; and Rodriguez out for a while following hip surgery and b) a re-energizing jolt to a sagging fan base.
Now, think of all that has to happen: The Rangers have to reject Hamilton. And Hamilton has to reject the biggest bidders. And the Yankees have to reject key elements of their current plan to avoid risky, multi-year contracts. The probability to all of that lining up just so for Hamilton to end up in The Bronx is slim, at best.
But none of this can play out for sure until Greinke signs. If he goes to the Rangers, suddenly the Dodgers will become more aggressive with free-agent starters, such as Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lohse. And if spurned by Texas, Hamilton would have to find a new address.