Just because the picture is clear doesn’t mean you have to like the view.
St. John’s knows what it needs to do to all but guarantee itself a spot in the NCAA Tournament — win the last five games and/or make a run in the Big East tournament. If the Red Storm (15-10 overall, 7-6 in the Big East) win out, they get to the NCAA magic number for Big East teams — 20.
According to information supplied by St John’s and the Big East office, a league team with 20 wins has made the field 96.7 percent (147-of-152) of the time since automatic bids went into effect in 1982-83.
But the Johnnies, who play host to South Florida (10-15, 1-12) at Carnesecca Arena Wednesday night, might have to go the rest of the way without starting point guard Jamal Branch, whose left knee injury either is worse than originally detailed or has been slow to respond to treatment.
Coach Steve Lavin, back from mourning the death of his father, Albert “Cap” Lavin, who died the night before the Red Storm’s 77-58 loss at Syracuse on Feb. 10, said St. John’s would not rush back Branch, who suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee in the Feb. 2 68-56 loss at Georgetown. Branch has not played since, and the Red Storm are 1-2 in the games he has missed.
“When cutting or lateral movement there’s still some pain,’’ Lavin said. “So I don’t know if it’s another week. Is it two weeks? Is it wait ’til next year? We just won’t really know, we won’t play him until he can go at full speed, make stops and starts, be able to change direction, have the explosiveness you need at both ends of the floor to play this game effectively.’’
Branch went down in a tangle of players, his knee buckling under the combined weight of Georgetown’s 235-pound Nate Lubick and Red Storm teammate Sir’Dominic Pointer’s 198 pounds. Because he has not had surgery, it’s doubtful he suffered a complete tear of the ligament, which runs along the inside — or big toe side — of the knee.
Unlike the ACL or PCL, the MCL can heal without surgery if it’s just a Grade 1 or 2 sprain. St. John’s has not stipulated the level of sprain. Branch, wearing a black neoprene brace, was walking without any trace of a limp. Pointer and Phil Greene IV said Branch has not practiced 5-on-5 since the injury. He was averaging 8.3 points and 2.5 assists.
“He’s making really good progress,’’ Lavin said. “He feels good about the progress, but he said in terms of explosiveness and lateral movement there’s still some pain. So to me that’s signaling he’s not fully recovered. We’ll wait until there’s a full recuperation, whether that’s some point here coming down the home stretch or for the conference tournament or it’s wait until next year. Then we have to go that route instead of risking a long-term setback or injury.’’
When Lavin moved Branch and Pointer into the starting lineup along with JaKarr Sampson, D’Angelo Harrison and Green, the smaller, faster Johnnies ripped off five straight wins to get to 14-7 overall, 6-3 in the league and speak real talk about an NCAA Tournament berth. But then St. John’s was hit with an imperfect storm:
The Red Storm began a brutal four-game stretch, Branch got hurt and Lavin missed two games after his father’s death, and they went 1-3 in those four.
Their RPI (58) is respectable and the strength of schedule (18) helps St. John’s case for an NCAA berth.
“We’re a young, dangerous team,’’ Pointer said. “I think we a sleeper team in tournament; you know a couple of upsets, bracket busters and all that stuff. I think we’d be a very dangerous team.’’
Perhaps. But St. John’s won’t know unless it closes strong, starting tonight against South Florida. The Bulls have lost eight straight, all league games, but as Pointer said, that one league win was over Georgetown, a team that swept the Johnnies.
“We control our own destiny,’’ Lavin said. “We’re the captain.”