This is the prediction business:
In the initial draft of this piece, I forecasted Adam Eaton to win the NL Rookie of the Year because he was going to be the leadoff-hitting center fielder for the Diamondbacks from Day 1. Twenty-four hours later, he sprained his left elbow and is now likely to miss two months.
I couldn’t see that coming, so how do you project a whole season? Here is how: With appreciation that this is for some debate and fun, and with the understanding I have as good a chance of actually being right about who will be elected president in 2028 as any of this.
I know for sure that the Rookies of the Year last season were Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. My sense is they are no flukes and will be forces in this year’s MVP debate — as Trout already was in 2012.
My eyes tell me the most complete teams are Detroit and Washington, and if the Tigers are missing anything it is the kind of proven closer the Nationals signed late in the offseason (Rafael Soriano).
I see the slow healing, re-injury and/or dubious results of Derek Jeter, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and David Ortiz and wonder if a few of the great players of the past 20 years are going, going … Many executives I’ve spoken to tell me they can see any AL East team finishing first, last or some place in between. To that end, 90 wins remains within the Yankees’ reach, but for the first time in two decades, I also can see 90 losses.
The Mets also have 90-loss potential, but if Travis d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler are part of that NL Rookie of the Year conversation by September, the season will not be lost.
If the Rockies are headed where it appears — perhaps to the bottom of the NL — does their ownership let a GM (Dan O¹Dowd) on the hot seat orchestrate a massive sell-off? If so, do they move useful pieces such as Rafael Betancourt and Michael Cuddyer, or does the franchise go for the full rebuild by dealing stars such as Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez?
The answer could impact the season.
Do all-in but still imperfect squads such as the Angels, Blue Jays and Dodgers keep adding to their payrolls and major league rosters?
Do the additions of strikeout machines for Cleveland (Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs, Nick Swisher) and Atlanta (the Upton brothers, Chris Johnson) put them in line to break the all-time team K record (2010 Diamondbacks, 1,529)?
Here are some further thoughts:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP
Mike Trout, Angels — Here is a hidden reason to pick someone from the AL West: Each team has 18 games against the minor league Astros. Strong clubs and great players are going to feast. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Jose Reyes have a 200-hit, 50-steal, 120-run season and finish in the top five with Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria.
CY YOUNG
Max Scherzer, Tigers — Easier to go with his teammate, the great Justin Verlander. But the light seemed to go on for the super-talented Scherzer last year as he finished 6-1 with a 1.65 ERA in his last 10 starts. By the way, only Verlander had more strikeouts last year than Scherzer.
Verlander, David Price, Yu Darvish and Josh Johnson round out the top five.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Aaron Hicks, Twins — Hicks wowed scouts with maturity and athleticism in spring. Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy and Wil Myers are more talented, but might not play enough in 2013.
DON¹T BE SURPRISED IF
(Yankees Edition) …
— We hear about the first Alex Rodriguez rehab setback on May 15 and that around Aug. 1, it is announced he is shutting it down for the season to concentrate on 2014.
— Robinson Cano tops 70 walks for the first time as pitchers disrespect the rest of the lineup by constantly working around him.
— Michael Pineda returns from shoulder surgery, but pitches to a 5.00 ERA and winds up back in the minors.
— Andy Pettitte, the oldest starter in the majors at 40, can only make it through 15 starts as various body parts betray him.
— Looking to boost offense in midseason and replace free-agent-to-be Curtis Granderson long term, the Yankees package Jose Ramirez and Mason Williams to the Dodgers for Andre Ethier, available because prospect Yasiel Puig is ready.
DON¹T BE SURPRISED IF
(AL Edition) …
— Austin Jackson takes another giant step forward to finish in the MVP top 10, helping the Tigers win an overmatched AL Central by 15 games.
— The Mariners’ obsession with offense continues as they trade one of the majors’ best pitching prospects, Taijuan Walker, to the Cubs for Starlin Castro, expendable because super shortstop prospect Javier Baez is on the horizon.
— The Angels, their rotation unsettling after Jered Weaver, rob from their offense by trading Mark Trumbo to the Cubs for Matt Garza.
— Yoenis Cespedes joins Jose Canseco (1988) as the only 30-30 men in A’s history.
— For the first time since 1993 (Roberto Alomar, Rickey Henderson, Kenny Lofton, Luis Polonia), four AL players (Michael Bourn, Brett Gardner, Desmond Jennings, Jose Reyes) top 50 steals.
— Despite a three-year, $39 million contract Boston’s Shane Victorino plays himself down to a fourth outfielder.
— Seattle’s Michael Saunders, Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Toronto’s Brett Lawrie make their first All-Star team.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP
Bryce Harper, Nationals — Perhaps it is a year too soon. But he is uber-talented and the third-place hitter on what looks like the NL’s best team. Joey Votto, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are the main challengers.
CY YOUNG
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals — With Chris Carpenter essentially retired, Wainwright leaves no doubt who is the staff leader. Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Matt Cain and Jordan Zimmermann vie for the award.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Julio Teheran, Braves — He is in the rotation from the outset, so the question is can such touted prospects as the Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud, the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig and/or the Pirates’ Gerrit Cole get enough time to be factors.
DON¹T BE SURPRISED IF
(Mets Edition) …
— Ike Davis sets the franchise homer record by hitting 42.
— Shaun Marcum deals with various ailments, mainly to his shoulder, all season and makes just 12 starts.
— Travis d’Arnaud gets called up in July and drops a positive calling card by hitting .275 with 12 homers in half a season.
— Jon Niese makes his first All-Star team en route to a career-high 15 wins and his first 200-inning season.
— Trying to solve some long-term outfield issues, the Mets trade pitching prospects Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and Domingo Tapia to the Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez.
DON¹T BE SURPRISED IF
(NL Edition) …
— The Cardinals, with super starting prospect Michael Wacha ready, package Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Adams to fix their glaring problem at short by obtaining Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki.
— Athleticism and growing experience come together to elevate the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija into an All-Star.
— Davey Johnson’s confident leadership and the roster’s brash temperament lead to the Nationals having five or six significant on-field altercations.
— The Marlins’ Double-A team, with prospects Jose Fernandez, Andrew Heaney, Adam Conley, Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto and Derek Dietrich is viewed as the best minor league club in 20 years.
— Domonic Brown becomes a 25-homer force for the Phillies, but new addition Ben Revere flops in center and Charlie Manuel loses his job, opening the Ryne Sandberg era.
— Tim Lincecum is better than last year, but not up to his Cy Young past, but Giants teammates Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford become difference-making players.
joel.sherman@nypost.com