NL EAST
NATIONALS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 7-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 92 1/2
KEY PLAYER: The shackles are off Stephen Strasburg, who is free to throw as many innings as he can handle. He’s an instant leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: RHP Dan Haren settled for a one-year, $13-million contract in free agency because he experienced a surprisingly subpar, injury-prone 2012 with the Angels. The Nationals think last year was the aberration, but he had a shaky spring.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: 3B Anthony Rendon, the team’s top prospect, figures to either be used as a trade chip or switch positions away from Ryan Zimmerman’s domain. He’ll start the season at Double-A.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will Rafael Soriano play nice with his new teammates, and will setup man Drew Storen cheerfully accept his demotion? (Yes, you know you have a good team when this is your biggest question mark.)
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the massive talent here simply plays up to its potential; who knows how good Bryce Harper can be? They will dive if the U.S. government sequester winds up in, let’s say, Jayson Werth not getting paid and walking off the job.
BRAVES
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 16-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 87 1/2
KEY PLAYER: It’ll take more than one player to fill the void left by Chipper Jones’ retirement, but B.J. Upton stands out because of the Braves’ significant commitment (five years, $75.25 million and their first-round draft pick) to him.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Dan Uggla endured a trying 2012 season, although an improved defensive performance helped cover for diminished offense. At $13 million a season, he’s expected to slug.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Andrelton Simmons took over at shortstop last June and displayed a strong glove as well as a good eye at the plate.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will the actual successors to Jones at third base, Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson, produce enough to at least be average? Francisco hasn’t hit much in the majors, and Johnson hasn’t fielded well.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the Uptons drive each other to new personal heights and if they can withstand the early absence of Brian McCann, who is returning from right shoulder surgery. They will dive if Tim Hudson, who turns 38 in July, shows his age and Mike Minor, 25, can’t build off last year’s progress, turning a perceived strength into a weakness.
Starting season on disabled list: C Brian McCann (.230, 20, 67)
PHILLIES
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 16-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 84 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Ryan Howard is in just the second year of a ludicrous, five-year, $125-million extension. The first year was an utter disaster, with Howard performing below replacement value after returning from Achilles tendon surgery.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Michael Young joins his new team off a brutal 2012 with the Rangers. He’s 36, and he hasn’t played a steady position since 2010.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Darin Ruf could wind up as a platoon partner for Howard and give the Phillies a much-needed dose of youth. Then again, he turns 27 in July, and he didn’t make the team out of spring training.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can Roy Halladay rebound from a terrible 2012 and re-establish himself as an elite starting pitcher? Or even a good one?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Howard, Halladay, Young and Chase Utley discover a gigantic Fountain of Youth. They will dive if they start off slowly and manager Charlie Manuel, in the last year of his contract and hoping to stall the promotion of third-base coach Ryne Sandberg, panics.
Suspended 25 games: C Carlos Ruiz (.325, 16, 68)
Starting season on disabled list: RF Delmon Young (.267, 18, 74)
METS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 100-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 74 1/2
KEY PLAYER: If Ike Davis can make this his first fully productive big-league season, that’ll give David Wright some much-needed assistance in the middle of the lineup.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: The Mets think Bobby Parnell can handle the closing duties. Parnell must honor his employers’ faith.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Collin Cowgill figures to be a fan favorite with his “hair on fire” approach to the game, although he won’t last long unless he can find the extra-base power he occasionally displayed in the minors.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will lame-duck manager Terry Collins show the Mets’ upper management enough under tough circumstances to get a new contract?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the outfield produces more than even the most optimistic projections and their remodeled bullpen protects leads. They will dive — not just in 2013, but beyond — if their young starting pitchers (Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler) regress.
MARLINS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 200-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 63 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Giancarlo Stanton is the last man standing from the would-be contenders of a year ago which beleaguered owner Jeffrey Loria blew up this past offseason. The other 29 teams will patiently wait for the slugger to be made available via trade.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Adeiny Hechavarria has the tools to become a quality major-league shortstop. He could give the Marlins some needed credibility if he matures into what he can be.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Nathan Eovaldi, acquired from the Dodgers last July in the Hanley Ramirez trade, might be the Marlins’ starting pitcher with the greatest upside. He uses his slider to retire righty hitters.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: It’s a big one: Can this team survive the earth-shattering events of the last year in a market that has never been very supportive even in rare good times?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive, long-term, if Loria sells the team to an owner as industrious as neighboring owner of the Rays, Stuart Sternberg. The ouster of Loria would at least make this year’s imminent dive worthwhile.
Starting season on disabled list: LF Logan Morrison (.230, 11, 36)
NL CENTRAL
REDS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 12-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 91 1/2
KEY PLAYER: After a spring of contemplation, the Reds decided to keep Aroldis Chapman as their closer and not promote him to the starting rotation. Both the team’s starting rotation and its bullpen will be scrutinized because of the Chapman saga.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Shin-Soo Choo has started just 10 games in center field during his eight-year career. Now he’s slated as the everyday guy. That’s a significant adjustment for the impending free agent.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: SS/CF Billy Hamilton stole a remarkable 155 bases in the minor leagues last year. He isn’t quite major-league ready, as he finished 2012 with Double-A Pensacola and the Reds don’t have a pressing need for him, but we’ll hear his footsteps.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Was Brandon Phillips’ decrease in walks and slugging last year just a blip on the radar, or is it a sign of things to come?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the starting rotation stays as healthy and productive as it did last season. They will dive if re-signed Ryan Ludwick reverts to his 2010-11 numbers and no one makes up the difference offensively.
CARDINALS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 20-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 861/2
KEY PLAYER: The Cardinals named rookie righty Shelby Miller their fifth starter. They’re counting on their top draft pick of 2009 to fill the void left by the departure of Kyle Lohse and the injury absence of Chris Carpenter.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Pete Kozma will take over for the injured shortstop Rafael Furcal (Tommy John surgery). In a limited opportunity last year, Kozma played very well on both sides of the field.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Trevor Rosenthal generated buzz last postseason with his 100-mph fastball. He can start or relieve.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Is their starting rotation good enough to win even one of baseball’s easier divisions? They passed on re-signing Lohse, who ultimately signed with division rival Milwaukee, even after Carpenter (neck and shoulder) went down in early February.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the bullpen can perform without the injured Jason Motte (elbow) and the young arms boost the starting rotation. They will dive if former Met Carlos Beltran, battling a right toe injury, and David Freese, dealing with back tightness, can’t do their part to keep St. Louis’ offense elite.
BREWERS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 50-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 80 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Ryan Braun is the new Barry Bonds. Major League Baseball bigwigs would love to take him down over allegations of illegal performance-enhancing drug usage. He excelled last year under such scrutiny.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: 2B Rickie Weeks endured a dreadful 2012 season, regressing defensively as well as offensively. The Brewers can’t afford to have such a liability at such a crucial position.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: SS Jean Segura came over from Anaheim in the Zack Greinke trade last July and didn’t hit much. His minor-league record insists that he’ll get better.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Is there a bullpen in the house? Last year’s unit essentially destroyed the team’s season. John Axford will be looked upon to be more like 2010 and 2011 and much less like last year.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if new arrival Kyle Lohse provides cover for the rest of the starting rotation and the offense rakes once again. They will dive if former Mets OF Carlos Gomez, just signed to an extension, doesn’t build off a promising 2012 and 1B Alex Gonzalez, filling in for Corey Hart, is an offensive liability.
Starting season on disabled list: 1B Corey Hart (.270, 30, 83)
PIRATES
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 66-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 77 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Former Yankees C Russell Martin came here to provide some power, guide the pitching staff and help eradicate the losing culture in the Pirates’ clubhouse.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Travis Snider, once a highly regarded prospect, came over from Toronto in a trade last July and didn’t do a heck of a lot. This could be his final chance at regular big-league time.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Righty Jameson Tallion, the second overall pick of the 2010 draft, impressed observers with his Team Canada performance in the World Baseball Classic and could be ready for the big leagues later this season.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can manager Clint Hurdle, known for his motivational skills, prevent a third straight second-half meltdown and guide the team to its first winning record since 1992?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if they receive offense from the traditional hitting positions of first base (Garrett Jones) and the corner outfield slots (Snider, Starling Marte). They will dive if A.J. Burnett, talking about retirement, mentally checks out and deprives the Pirates of their most reliable (yeesh) veteran starting pitcher.
Starting season on disabled list: LHP Francisco Liriano (6-12, 5.34)
CUBS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 75-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 73 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Anthony Rizzo enjoyed a strong first full big-league season and is regarded by Cubs management as a franchise pillar.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Carlos Marmol has to fix his control problems (45 walks in 55¹/3 innings last year) or be pushed aside from the closer role (or get traded). The bullpen could hold this team back from mounting a surprise threat.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: The Yankees tried to sign Nate Schierholtz over the winter, only to lose out on him to the Cubs. Spending most of his career at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park has buried the fact he can hit a little.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will Matt Garza (strained lat muscle) return in May, as hoped, and rebuild his value (possibly for a trade) before he hits free agency?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if newcomers Schierholtz and former Mets OF Scott Hairston help revive a dormant offense. They will dive, and turn into July sellers once more, if highly paid Alfonso Soriano and Edwin Jackson fall short of their expected outputs.
Starting season on disabled list: RHP Matt Garza (5-7, 3.91)
NL WEST
DIAMONDBACKS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 60-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 81 1/2
KEY PLAYER: 3B Martin Prado was the key return piece that convinced the D-Backs to trade Justin Upton to the Braves. He’ll be looked upon to upgrade the hot corner considerably over last year’s two primary occupants, Ryan Roberts and Chris Johnson.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: If lefty Patrick Corbin, the likely fifth starter, can be even league-average, the Diamondbacks should have a very strong starting rotation.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Tyler Skaggs faltered in a late-season audition last year, but the lefty still is highly regarded and figures to get another call to the big leagues when a need arises in the starting rotation.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Has manager Kirk Gibson gone too far in trying to mold the team like himself, jettisoning the talented pair of Upton and RHP Trevor Bauer (to Cleveland) in the process?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if they can prove the Upton trade was addition by subtraction. They will dive if they can’t stay healthy — outfielders Adam Eaton (left elbow) and Cody Ross (left calf) are already out, and pitcher Brandon McCarthy is coming off a skull fracture from last September.
Starting season on disabled list: CF Adam Eaton (.259, 2, 5); RF C. Ross (.267, 22, 81)
DODGERS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 9-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 91 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Matt Kemp is the Dodgers’ best player — when healthy. He played in just 106 games last year because of hamstring and shoulder problems, and he underwent left shoulder surgery in October.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Zack Greinke got paid like a true ace by the money-throwing Dodgers in free agency, but is he really one? His right elbow bothered him this spring.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: OF Yasiel Puig, a Cuban defector who signed for $42 million last year, will start the year in the minors, but the Dodgers are very excited about him.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will all of the big names and big egos mesh to create a cohesive unit? That responsibility falls upon manager Don Mattingly, who’s in the last year of his contract.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if past All-Stars like Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez (out for about two months with a right thumb injury) rediscover their mojo. They will dive if Mattingly can’t corral this jumbled group and they sink under the weight of expectations.
Starting season on disabled list: LF Carl Crawford (.282, 3, 19); SS Hanley Ramirez (.257, 24, 92)
GIANTS
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 12-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 87 1/2
KEY PLAYER: The Giants reached the 2012 playoffs despite Tim Lincecum, not because of him, and then Lincecum’s postseason relief work helped San Francisco win the World Series. He’s back to starting.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Hunter Pence, like Lincecum in his walk year, didn’t perform well after joining the Giants in late July. San Francisco will need more from him this season.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Gary Brown’s star has dropped some in the past year, yet the Giants’ first-round draft selection of 2010 could work his way into the big leagues this season, especially since the team lacks great outfield depth.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: It’s always the same here: Will they hit enough?
They did last year, bailing out a pitching staff that didn’t live up to its standard, but much of that offense came from disgraced and departed OF Melky Cabrera.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if reigning World Series MVP Pablo Sandoval, battling late-camp right elbow woes, ramps up quickly and Lincecum rights himself. They will dive if the offense peters out and the pitchers perform as they did last year.
PADRES
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 75-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 74 1/2
KEY PLAYER: Chase Headley, a Most Valuable Player finalist last year, will miss approximately the first month of the season with a fractured tip of his left thumb. He’ll have to hit the ground running upon his return.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Cameron Maybin backslid last season after signing a long-term extension in March. His stronger 2011 numbers might simply have been the product of good luck.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Jedd Gyorko could be the Padres’ Opening Day second baseman. He has a power bat that San Diego badly needs.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can LHP Clayton Richard and RHP Edinson Volquez be any better than league average?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the offense can rise with in-season additions of Headley and C Yasmani Grandal (suspended the first 50 games for a failed drug test) and their starting pitching improves dramatically from 2012. More likely, they will dive if the starting rotation remains a liability.
Starting season on disabled list: 3B Chase Headley (.286, 31, 115)
ROCKIES
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 150-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 71 1/2
KEY PLAYER: All-Star SS Troy Tulowitzki played in just 47 games last year, undergoing left groin surgery. The Rockies need a full season of vintage Tulo, who wears number 2 in honor of the (previously) more durable Derek Jeter, in order to be something better than dreadful.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: In what could be the final season of his career, Todd Helton will try to improve upon his underwhelming 2012 performance and cap his Hall of Fame résumé.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Josh Rutledge put up some encouraging numbers as Tulowitzki’s fill-in last year and will now slide over to second base. He must get on base like he did in the minor leagues.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will LHP Drew Pomeranz, the key piece they received from Cleveland in the 2011 trade for Ubaldo Jimenez, ever harness his control and become the frontline starter the Rockies envisioned?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive, relatively speaking, if Carlos Gonzalez plays like the MVP candidate he was in 2010. They will dive if their pitching continues to be horrendous.