Some quick thoughts on a very young season:
Early test of Dodgers’ $235 million depth
The Yankees found out last year that a steady flow of injuries can derail even a team with the largest payroll. And now here are the Dodgers. They have the largest payroll at $235 million, marking the first time since 1998 the Yankees do not sit on that throne.
And already, with the season in its infancy, they have lost two pitchers they invested in during the offseason.
The big blow is to Clayton Kershaw, who received the largest pitching contract ever in the offseason – seven years at $215 million. He had made at least 30 starts in each of five previous seasons before inking that deal and, optimally, Los Angeles had to hope he could make 30 per season for seven years in the deal for 210 starts, roughly $1 million per.
But after starting in Australia, Kershaw was found to have irritation in his upper back. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has told Los Angeles reporters the organization will go slow with such precious merchandise and make sure Kershaw is fully healed before he returns. That means the two-time reigning Cy Young winner will not be back before May. If that is as far as the injury goes, no big deal, in either the short or long term.
Kershaw would still probably make 25-28 starts. However, it does show the scary nature once more of committing so much long term, particularly to a pitcher.
The Dodgers also have lost Brian Wilson, to whom they gave a one-year, $10 million deal in the offseason, to nerve irritation in his right elbow. Since Wilson already has endured two Tommy John procedures, this obviously is a red-flag moment. He was ticketed to be Los Angeles’ main setup man.
Now in both injury cases, the Dodgers have spent enough to create protection. Just about any team would love to have Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu as Nos. 1-2 starters, and Ryu actually will start three of the Dodgers’ first six games because of the strange nature of the schedule (the Dodgers opened in Australia) combined with Kershaw’s injury. The Dodgers also have Dan Haren and Josh Beckett and, to replace Kershaw, they will insert Paul Maholm, who seemed an overkill signing in the offseason. Chad Billingsley is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could return at some point and top prospect Zach Lee is nearly ready.
Keep in mind, though, the Dodgers thought they had an overflow of rotation options last year with Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Billingsley, Beckett, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano. And attrition forced them to trade for Ricky Nolasco in July.
As for the pen, former Indians closer Chris Perez – another seeming overkill buy in the offseason – can step in for Wilson in front of closer Kenley Jansen.
Mariners’ young bats protecting Cano
The Yankees failed last year because their farm failed them and when injuries struck Robinson Cano was essentially a great island in a wasteland of a lineup.
The fear was the same would happen to him in Seattle – that the Mariners had invested $240 million in Cano, but turned off the financial spigot and left him unprotected for the most part. That was believed, in part, because the young core that Seattle had believed so much in recently had never blossomed.
But two games at least provide a tinge of optimism with Dustin Ackley (the second pick in the 2009 draft), Justin Smoak (the key piece in the Cliff Lee trade) and Brad Miller (the shortstop who has made Nick Franklin so available for a trade). Ackley opened the season 4-for-7 with four RBIs. Smoak had four hits (three for extra bases) and six RBIs in two games. And Miller, who impressed scouts during the spring, particularly with his power potential from short, hit two homers, including the first of his career off a southpaw.
Because of the expected strength of their pitching, the Mariners can definitely contend if these youngsters form a credible nucleus around Cano.
Marlins armed for rapid renaissance?
If the Marlins’ young starters have matured, maybe they could be contenders, as well.
The Mets have been basing the premise of a run of contention on the belief they will be carried by pitching. The problem is the Mets pitching has a long way to go to equal the expected alpha dogs of the division, the Nationals. But, perhaps more troubling, is the Mets are going to have to show that within their division they can separate themselves from the Marlins.
Jose Fernandez, just 21, might be the best pitcher in the majors already, so dynamic is his fastball/curve combo and his fierceness as a competitor. The question was if other power righties such as Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez and Jacob Turner could step in behind him with competence or better – especially because the Marlins (like the Mets) believe they have other big-time hurlers nearly ready to join the majors.
In the first two games of the year, against the Rockies, Fernandez and Eovaldi combined to pitch 12 innings, allow 11 hits, three runs, walk one and whiff 15.