Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Catching East rivals should be Mets’ goal

PORT ST. LUCIE — Forget the number for a moment — those 90 victories Mets upper management has established as possible if nothing goes wrong, everything goes right and there is a pleasant surprise or three.

The gauge for the Mets is not an arbitrary win total. Why 90? Why not 88 or 94 or 101? The real aim is making inroads in the NL East, which means taking strides toward the Nationals and Braves. After all, Washington and Atlanta do not have to stretch the laws of math to see an equation to 90 wins.

Here is the real worrisome factor for the Mets: Does anyone see that condition changing any year soon? The Nationals and Braves already are what the Mets are trying to become.

Sure, the Mets can be rightfully proud of their young stable of arms. But what the Mets want Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero to become, Washington’s Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister already are. Each finished in the top 20 in their league in ERA last year, none is over 30 this year.

Zimmerman and Fister can be free agents after the 2015 season, but the Nationals have shown a financial muscle abandoned by the Mets. Plus, Lucas Giolito ranks with Syndergaard among the best pitching prospects in the game and A.J. Cole is in the next group with Montero. So Washington’s rotation is better today than that of the Mets, with no signs of giving up that edge any time soon.

The Braves, meanwhile, have graduated their best farmhands from suspects to young productive major leaguers. Atlanta likely will have a rotation comprised of five players from its system all 28 or younger — Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood. Plus, the Braves have produced the best closer in the majors, Craig Kimbrel, the best defensive shortstop, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis and Freddie Freeman.

Not long ago there was debate about which up-and-coming NL East first baseman — Freeman, Ike Davis or the Marlins’ Logan Morrison — would be the best. That question has gone the way of the Macarena. Morrison was traded to Seattle and Davis might be traded while the Braves gave their largest contract ever — seven years, $135 million — to Freeman.

With a new stadium set to open in Cobb County in 2017, the Braves have become financially bolder by locking up Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons and Teheran in the past few weeks. So they have a head start on the Mets of not only getting their young core to the majors, but assuring it will be around for a while.

“We are trying to catch those two teams. They both have good foundations.”

Those words came from an NL East manager, but not Terry Collins. That was Mike Redmond, skipper for the Marlins, who trashed the Mets 9-1 Saturday. The reality is that — as presently assembled — the Mets have far more in common with the Marlins than the NL East heavyweights.

Miami, for example, also is building around a stable of power arms, headed by NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez — by the way, how long might the Mets be haunted by taking Brandon Nimmo with the 13th overall pick in Sandy Alderson’s first draft as general manager rather than Fernandez, who went next to the Marlins?

Both lineups have one big-time star (David Wright/Giancarlo Stanton) and both organizations allocated somewhat significant dollars to augment their lineups this offseason with a player from the AL East (Curtis Granderson/Jarrod Saltalamacchia). Both franchises have ownerships not trusted by their fan bases, ownerships that despite relatively new stadiums are criticized for limiting payrolls. Miami actually is projected to have the majors’ lowest payroll at about $43 million, roughly half of the Mets’.

With the Phillies seemingly in an age-related free fall, the Mets and Marlins are in a race within the NL East race to see if either or both can get their act together, matriculate their youngsters quickly, not fall prey to ownership malfeasance and become the next big threat to the Nationals and Braves.

At this time next year is Travis d’Arnaud an established star or is he Christian Yelich? Did Wheeler make the big step to 200-inning force or become Henderson Alvarez? Did Syndergaard drop a positive major league calling card or resemble Andrew Heaney?

The big deal for these 2014 Mets is not a throw-a-dart-at-a-board number — 90 wins — but are they opening a gap on the Marlins, closing one on the Nationals and Braves?