Jake Peavy probably always has been ranked high on your list of pitchers to aim for on draft day, but has more than likely ranked just as high on pitchers to be wary of due to injury risk.
Peavy’s average draft position this year, according to fantasypros.com (which averages a players’ draft position from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS and MockDraftCentral) was 134.8. He was the 34th starting pitcher taken, one spot below Jon Lester and one spot above C.J. Wilson.
From 2002 until winning the Cy Young Award in 2007, Peavy was 76-51 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 1,090 strikeouts. He averaged 13 wins and 29 starts per season. Since winning the Cy Young, the 32-year-old has gone 52-46 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 734 strikeouts. He has averaged nine wins and only 20 starts per season since 2008.
Before being traded to the Red Sox this week, Peavy was 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 13 starts for the White Sox. He will make his first start for Boston tonight against Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks.
Last season was the first time since he won the pitching Triple Crown (led league in wins, ERA and strikeouts) in 2007 Peavy pitched in more than 30 games. He nearly two months with a broken rib, but appears to be healthy. He won his last two decisions with the White Sox, allowing eight runs (six earned) over 13 innings and striking out 10.
Peavy should thrive with the Red Sox (especially when you consider Boston’s offense will offer considerably more runs per game than Chicago’s did — 553 this season to an AL-worst 391) and be an ace for Boston and your fantasy team … as long as he stays healthy. The winning ways in Boston should translate to more wins and a lower ERA for Peavy … as long as he stays healthy. He will be an ace for the Red Sox and your fantasy squad … as long as he stays healthy.
Here’s a look at some other pitchers who were traded at the deadline and their fantasy values moving forward:
Bud Norris, Orioles: Since making his debut in 2009, the 28-year-old right-hander has rarely heard the word “win.” Now, he has been traded to a young team on the rise and it should improve his fantasy value. Before this week’s trade, Norris was 6-9 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 90 strikeouts. In his first start as an Oriole on Thursday, Norris (298.5 ADP) allowed two runs on four hits while striking out eight en route to his first win with his new squad. With Baltimore alive in the wild-card race, Norris’ value as a viable fantasy option will continue to rise.
Ian Kennedy, Padres: Maybe moving into pitcher-friendly Petco Park is exactly what the doctor ordered to help turn around Kennedy’s disastrous season. Kennedy (109.0 ADP), who finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2011, is 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. Kennedy’s first start for the Padres will come tomorrow against Phil Hughes and the Yankees. He won’t be a reliable starter every fifth day, but he should be a decent streaming option if you pick your spots wisely.
Francisco Rodriguez, Orioles: Remember when K-Rod (10-for-10 in save opportunities with the Brewers) was arrested for allegedly beating his father-in-law on Aug. 12, 2010 while with the Mets? He had 25 saves on the season to that point, but didn’t pitch in another game. It’s going to feel like that with Jim Johnson’s firm grip on the Orioles’ closer spot. K-Rod’s value has been KO’d.
Jose Veras, Tigers: Before being traded to Detroit, Veras’ value was limited as the Astros’ closer largely because he was, well, the Astros’ closer. With Joaquin Benoit (10 saves, no blown saves) retaining the closer role in Detroit, Veras (19 saves with Houston) is just a setup guy with little value outside of a spot save opportunity.
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