Eastern Conference: (1) Indiana vs. (8) Atlanta
What to watch for: The Pacers must make a statement after stumbling to the regular-season’s end and need to right the ship if they want a deep run. The Hawks will spread the floor and go small, so Atlanta’s ability to make shots will be key. Jeff Teague is the “It” guy for Atlanta to keep it competitive. Conversely, Indy wants to control the paint at both ends. Atlanta has no one to match Roy Hibbert and David West inside.
Player who will make a difference: Roy Hibbert is the obvious choice but the wild card for the Pacers is Lance Stephenson. Is he going to play as a productive player, a triple-double threat, or is he going to lose his mind and play recklessly as he has the second half of the year? Figure he reverts to early-season form.
Prediction: Pacers in 5. They are simply too good and too talented to lose this.
(2) Miami vs. (7) Charlotte
What to watch for: Charlotte has the one element that gives Miami fits, a big guy that can score consistently in Al Jefferson. But the Bobcats are terribly inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs and how young guards Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson play will be important. The Heat have more than 1,000 games of playoff experience. The Bobcats have 127.
Player who will make a difference: Al Jefferson could be the reason Charlotte steals a game. Steve Clifford’s Bobcats are “going to throw the ball to Jefferson every stinking play,” one scout predicted. But figure the Heat will throw everything back and drive to the rim to get him in foul trouble. Chris Bosh will be a tough cover for Jefferson.
Prediction: Heat in 5. The Bobcats will be feisty, but Miami has beaten them 16 straight. LeBron James scored 61 against Charlotte the last time the teams met on March 3.
(3) Toronto vs. (6) Brooklyn
What to watch for: Likely the most competitive first-round series. Toronto’s athleticism, with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry in the backcourt and Amir Johnson, pretty athletic for a big guy, will give the Nets fits. Toronto wants a quick pace at both ends. The Nets counter with experience; this is what they were built for. With off days sprinkled liberally, it will be interesting to see how Jason Kidd handles Kevin Garnett’s minutes.
Player who will make a difference: It’s the point-guard matchup that makes the difference — Kyle Lowry against Deron Williams. Lowry makes the Raptors go. He’s tough and smart but can be forced into turnovers. If Lowry is going well, the Raptors can win. So Williams is more important than ever. He needs to dominate.
Prediction: Nets in 6. The experience factor for the Nets gives them the early edge and they’ll want to close it out at home. If it goes seven, the Raptors survive.
(4) Chicago vs. (5) Washington
What to watch for: The Wizards will create problems for Chicago. They’re athletic and have vets. Washington’s backcourt is young with John Wall and Bradley Beal but the Wizards have experience in Nene, Marcin Gortat, Andre Miller, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden and Trevor Ariza. Still, Chicago wins. The Bulls are as mentally tough as anyone — they had to be considering they had to (again) play without Derrick Rose and overcome the trade of Luol Deng.
Player who will make a difference: For Washington, it would be Bradley Beal and for the Bulls, the logical choice could be D.J. Augustin because of Chicago’s scoring difficulty. But pick Mike Dunleavy as a possible X-factor. If he has a good series — hitting some 3-pointers and getting to the line — he could be the difference-maker for Chicago.
Prediction: The pesky Wizards will win a couple games but the Bulls will survive and advance. Chicago ranked 30th in scoring so Augustin off the bench needs to provide points.
Western Conference: (1) San Antonio vs. (8) Dallas
What to watch for: The Spurs want this over as soon as possible. Dallas still has championship blood, notably through Dirk Nowitzki and coach Rick Carlisle. With vets such as Vince Carter, the Mavs should make some noise. But not much. You say “veteran” and you start with the Spurs, who want rest and embrace the playoff format. The Spurs bench, while not deep in bigs, has produced all season.
What player will make a difference: Tony Parker remains the key to the Spurs. Obviously, he has missed games with back issues, but he’ll bring the ability to score, get to the rim and make things happen. He’s the best difference-maker here.
Prediction: Spurs in 5. Nowitzki could shoot Dallas to a victory. But the Spurs have been on a mission all year and know they can’t get bogged down in a first-round series.
(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Memphis
What to watch for: The Grizzlies are good but they are not the same team that pounded and pushed the Thunder out of the Western semis last year. Marc Gasol will give the Thunder some inside problems, but OKC is simply too good. The Thunder are quick, well-coached and have the best player in the series in Kevin Durant.
What player will make a difference: Figure it’s Russell Westbrook, who has sat out nearly half the season in different stretches because of knee issues. But with the off days in the playoffs, he’ll outplay Mike Conley. Westbrook is great in transition and shoots 3-pointers well. He can’t get distracted by distractions — say, a hard foul by Gasol or Zach Randolph. If he stays focused, the Thunder will end it quickly.
Prediction: Thunder in 5. Memphis might get a game at home but the Thunder are simply better.
(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Golden State
What to watch for: This is a different Clippers team from years past. Credit coach Doc Rivers, the true X-factor in the series. His approach and style have brought mental toughness and a killer instinct to go for the throat of a dysfunctional Warriors team. Pencil Blake Griffin for a 20-10 double-double average against the Warriors with a hobbled David Lee (hamstring) and hurting Andrew Bogut (ribs). Stephen Curry vs. Chris Paul is the best individual matchup in the first round.
Player who will make a difference: When you have Paul and Blake Griffin on your side it’s easy to pick either, but figure stars will be stars so maybe a bench guy, the Clippers’ Jamal Crawford, pushes the Warriors over the cliff.
Prediction: Clippers in 5. The Warriors labored under crippling expectations all season, now head into the playoffs without their front line. Could be coach Mark Jackson’s farewell.
(4) Houston vs. (5) Portland
What to watch for: Houston is really good offensively. Portland will win a game or two at home, but again, stars will be stars. The Rockets know they have studs in Dwight Howard and James Harden so they’ll look for more from the supporting cast. Chandler Parsons could be big. Same with the Blazers. Damian Lillard is quality and LaMarcus Aldridge is an All-Star. But then Houston has a better and deeper supporting cast.
Player who will make a difference: The playoffs are why Houston got Dwight Howard. James Harden will score and role players will play roles, but Howard will be the difference. Portland has no one to guard him and his inside presence will open the perimeter. If Howard is at an All-Star level he’ll give Portland fits.
Prediction: Rockets in 6. The Rockets are too good offensively. Portland improved by 21 games, the best turnaround in franchise history, but a late 3-8 streak dimmed some of the its luster. The Blazers have a good starting unit, suspect bench.