Overshadowed by the economic crisis and the presidential race is the United States’ recent, widespread crackdown on illegal immigrants, the most aggressive effort to arrest, detain and deport since the dragnet-style sweeps of the 1950s known as “Operation Wetback.” Almost every month brings new stories of raids on workplaces – 300 arrested at a clothing factory in Massachusetts, 400 at a slaughterhouse in Iowa, another 600 at a computer technology company in Mississippi. This year there have been nearly 5,000 arrests, 10 times the level of just five years ago. While this remains a tiny fraction of the roughly 12 million unauthorized immigrants in the US, the raids are conducted in headline-grabbing fashion designed to incite fear among other undocumented workers.
These are only the tip of the enforcement campaign. On any given day, more than 30,000 illegal immigrants are crowded into jail cells awaiting deportation. Annual deportations now exceed a quarter million, the highest level in US history. And, as the Department of Homeland Security proudly displays on its home page, 352.1 miles of fence has been built along the Mexican border, and 17,327 Border Patrol agents are deployed to guard what’s left.
It’s a staggering turnaround for President George Bush, who only a little more than a year ago was fighting for extensive immigration reform, pushing for a new guest-worker program, and urging that unauthorized migrants already here be given some path (albeit long and difficult) to citizenship.
Bush famously used some Spanish phrases in his presidential campaigns, and in the 2000 race, he spoke compassionately of poor Mexicans and others trying to feed their families by coming to work here when there were no jobs at home. “That’s called family values, and they do not stop at the Rio Grande,” he said.
Even as governor of Texas in the 1990s, Bush had challenged the restrictionists in his party, like California Governor Pete Wilson, arguing that a crackdown on illegal immigrants was morally bankrupt and politically foolhardy. As president, his first foreign policy initiative was to try to negotiate a migration accord with Mexico in which both countries would seek a humane solution.
But since the legislation co-sponsored by John McCain died in the Senate last year, all that is left is enforcement.
By some measures, it is working. The slowing economy and harsher enforcement appear to have reduced illegal migration to the US. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff wants to demonstrate to skeptical citizens that the border can be secured, and to show employers the high costs of hiring undocumented workers. He is making progress on both.
While this may appease those voters and radio show hosts who blame illegal immigration for all our ills, it’s hurting the Republicans chances to hold the White House or retake Congress. The workplace raids may not be making waves in the English-language press, they’re covered extensively by Spanish-language newspapers and television stations.
While many Hispanics are no happier about illegal immigration than other voters, they have been angered by the brutality of the crackdown and fear legal residents will be caught in the sweeps. Just last week, armed agents broke down the door of 68-year-old Texas woman who had been a US citizen for 40 years.
In the primaries, Hispanic voters backed Hillary Clinton in large numbers, but when she lost, it was a demographic up for grabs. In Arizona, 70% of Hispanic voters supported McCain in his last Senate race, and because of his immigration reform efforts, he had a chance to woo them nationally.
But after the crackdowns, Hispanics are backing Barack Obama over McCain by a roughly three-to-one margin. In states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, these voters could tip the entire election. While immigration is only one of several important issues for Hispanic voters, if McCain loses, it will be a big part of the reason.
Nothing could have been further from George Bush’s intentions. But like so much of his administration, it hasn’t worked out quite the way he had hoped.
Edward Alden is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the author of “The Closing of the American Border: Terrorism, Immigration and Security Since 9/11,” just published by HarperCollins.