Presidential candidates who’ve choked in the clutch often turn out to be plagued by their own doubts – prey, perhaps, to a political law of natural selection.
For John McCain, the financial meltdown was actually a softball disguised as a crisis.
By rights, 2008 is a Democratic year: a bad economy, a war, and an unpopular two-term Republican incumbent. McCain’s best hope was to show himself stable and reliable during trying times, in contrast to the untested and risky Obama.
When Bear Stearns went under, McCain was actually ahead, with a little help from Sarah Palin. To seal the deal, he just needed to be the grownup. Instead he kept changing positions, and staged a phony “campaign suspension.”
Did McCain’s lead in the polls terrify him? Is that why, when he had the chance to lock in his advantage, he branded himself instead as a desperate gambler and let Obama play the cool, collected leader?
A book about the 1988 election described how Michael Dukakis refused to respond to attacks, after taking a vacation that let him ponder his 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush. “Saying over and over that you were going to be president gave you a kind of runner’s high; but when the cheering stopped, a certain hollow feeling set in, a sudden vertigo of the soul.”
In 1992 Paul Tsongas also let his chances slip away. Revelations about Bill Clinton’s womanizing and draft-dodging had propelled Tsongas to a 20-point lead in polls just before the New Hampshire primary. But Tsongas cut back his appearances as Clinton doubled his and cut the margin in half. Projected the winner, Tsongas let Clinton take the stage first to declare himself “the comeback kid” and lost his momentum.
Likewise, Al Gore could give rip-roaring speeches when nothing is at stake for him personally. But his inner demons took hold in 2000, when his three ridiculous debate performances against George W. Bush cost him the presidency.
McCain himself folded once before. In 2000, he walloped George Bush by 19 points in New Hampshire, but was then sucker-punched in the brutal South Carolina primary. McCain had an obvious strategic path after that: to focus on his strong record as a hawk on taxes and government waste, which would have appealed to the Republican base.
Instead, he complained non-stop about the Bush tactics that had cost him South Carolina, like anonymous calls attacking his association with moderate ex-Senator Warren Rudman. When conservative radio host Michael Reagan tried to question McCain on education – a topic voters care about – McCain insisted on defending Rudman, who few voters knew.
Elections often boil down to which candidate wants it more. This past summer, McCain seemed to, as he launched harsh ads attacking Obama as a “celebrity,” and when he picked Palin.
But he’s now blown his second election, and won’t get another opportunity to measure up during a moment of crisis. Isn’t it logical to wonder if his erratic behavior under fire shows he was terrified of the prospect he might actually become president?