EVERY coach these days, home or away, favorite or underdog, has to deal with the question. Every week, every conference, every campus, it’s bound to surface.
As long as Top Ten teams seem about as stable as the stock market, these guys will have to come up with an answer to this: “What’s the deal with these upsets?”
Houston Nutt seems to have it right.
“It’s the team that makes the fewest mistakes during that time period,” Nutt said. “It’s not the best player.”
He’s a good one to ask, seeing as though he finds his way into the upset talk every year. Last season, his last at Arkansas, the Razorbacks stunned LSU. This season, his first at Ole Miss, the Rebels shocked Florida.
And this week, they take another crack. On Saturday, Mississippi (3-3) meets No. 2 Alabama (6-0) in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels are underdogs. They’re coming off a loss to South Carolina. And they’re clearly outclassed in talent.
So, they have no chance, right, Houston?
“It’s the team that plays the smartest, makes the fewest mistakes and takes care of the ball,” Nutt said. “That’s the team that is going to win no matter who you play.”
Apologies to those who despise coachspeak, but we agree. Texas wanted it more, and made fewer mistakes than Oklahoma. Sooners lose. Oklahoma State wanted it more, and made fewer mistakes than Missouri. Tigers lose.
We’re not going to sit here and say the Rebels will continue that trend. One upset over a Top Ten team each season – especially when you belong to the SEC – is about all you can ask for.
But the Rebels have battled for Nutt. They should have beaten Wake on the road, before falling, 30-28. They outgained Vanderbilt at home by 183 yards, but lost, 23-17. And then, of course, they shocked the Gators at The Swamp, 31-30.
And now here comes the rested Crimson Tide, perhaps stirred after being jumped by Texas for No. 1. Alabama, for all of its accolades, has puzzled some at home, beating Kentucky by three, and Tulane by just 14. Perhaps the Tide plod along again here, find themselves in an SEC swashbuckler, and squeak one out.
“We need to improve, and that should be our focus,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said. “We have a lot of really good teams to play. Ole Miss is one of those teams.”
We agree. Ole Miss (+13) is the pick.
TONIGHT
N.C. STATE (+11) over Florida State: Speaking of teams that battle. Tom O’Brien’s club has been a tough out at home.
SATURDAY
RUTGERS (+1) over UConn: Trap City. How is a 5-1 team that won this game by 19 last year not laying at least a touchdown?
MARYLAND (+1 1/2) over Wake Forest: The schizophrenic Terps have risen to the occasion at home, and could still challenge for the ACC title.
Texas Tech (-20 1/2) over TEXAS A&M: As the pollsters watch, the Red Raiders should pounce on their rival, whose lone home win was vs. Army.
GEORGIA (-15) over Vanderbilt: Not buying the lookahead factor for the Bulldogs, who have LSU and Florida on deck. Already saddled with a loss, Mark Richt’s crew must win big.
Baylor (+16 1/2) over OKLAHOMA STATE: The Cowboys were awfully impressive last week, but the Bears can spread the field out and hang around.
OKLAHOMA (-20) over Kansas: We usually lean on the Jayhawks. But the Sooners, off a loss, at home, have too much to go against.
Southern Cal (-42 1/2) over WASH. ST.: Impossible game. But if you want to take a squad that’s allowed 60-plus points three times against a team that allows nine ppg, by all means.
Pitt (-3 1/2) over NAVY: The Panthers made a name for themselves vs. USF, and had two weeks to prep for the option.
Ohio State (-3) over MICHIGAN STATE: Can’t ignore the Jim Tressel Road Factor. He’s 9-0 over the last three seasons, in conference, away from The ‘Shoe.
Michigan (+23 1/2) over PENN STATE: A non-popular choice, as the talent is a clear mismatch. But in this series, the last four have been decided by less than seven, and in the last 10, only two have been decided by more than 25.
TEXAS (-5 1/2) over Missouri: We’ve ridden the Longhorns against Arkansas, Colorado and Oklahoma. No stopping now.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) over Virginia Tech: Trapwatch, again, as the ranked team is a ‘dog. Chris Crane, with seven rushing touchdowns, can show the nation there’s life after Matt Ryan.
Louisiana State (-3) over SOUTH CAROLINA: Something tells us Les Miles has his crew ready after getting abused.
OFF THE GRID
UCLA (pick) over Stanford: The Cardinal might be a tad hung over after upsetting Arizona.
Last week: 10-4-1 Overall, 2-0-1 Best Bets, 1-1 Off The Grid.Season: 56-45-3, 10-10-1, 6-7-1.
tsullivan@nypost.com