US News

MCCAIN HAS THE BATTLEGROUND BLUES

New surveys in battleground states – including such longtime GOP safe havens as North Carolina – show Barack Obama either ahead of John McCain or keeping several places in toss-up status.

Of the traditional battlegrounds, Obama has been running ahead in most polls in Ohio, a state President Bush won in 2004.

The Real Clear Politics average of Ohio polls from Oct. 22 through Oct. 31 showed Obama ahead, 48.8 percent to 44.6 percent.

And in Florida, another Bush state in 2004, a recent ARG survey showed Obama ahead by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Obama’s inroads into Republican strongholds has prompted McCain to spend days at a stretch in the last week stumping in Pennsylvania, a blue state in 2004 but one that he thinks he can wrest away from the Democrats.

But the RCP average in Pennsylvania showed Obama ahead, 51.2 to 44.2, in the last week.

And the fact that Obama hasn’t taken time from his tour of red states – especially given native son Joe Biden’s Scranton roots – suggests that he doesn’t think Pennsylvania is truly in play.

Colorado seems poised to turn blue, and fresh polling shows Obama leading in Virginia, another Bush state. He’s also ahead in New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico.

Obama also has made swing-state Missouri a toss-up – and even Indiana and North Carolina, both traditional Republican outposts, are in statistical dead heats.

The Electoral College map predictor site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com yesterday forecast a blowout of 333 votes for Obama to 205 for McCain.