Mayor Bloomberg leads his closest Democratic challenger, Rep. Anthony Weiner, by a wobbly 7 points, a new poll shows – an unexpectedly close margin certain to send a jolt through the mayor’s third-term re-election campaign.
New York 1, which conducted the poll, said Bloomberg was leading Weiner by just 43 to 36 percent, even as the mayor maintained a healthy 64 percent approval rating.
Comptroller Bill Thompson, the other leading Democratic contender, trails Bloomberg by 13 points, 45 to 32 percent.
Bloomberg “does have his work cut out for him because he is not at the comfortable 50 percent,” said NY1 pollster Mickey Blum.
In 2005, Bloomberg coasted to re-election over Democrat Fernando Ferrer by nearly 20 points.
Even though the mayoral campaign is in its infancy, one analyst said Bloomberg is going to have to react to the harsh numbers.
“He’s going to spend more money up front,” the analyst predicted.
The billionaire mayor spent $85 million of his own money when he clobbered Ferrer four years ago, and no one would be surprised if he spent $100 million or more this time around.
Hizzoner has repeatedly shrugged off questions about his re-election bid, saying it’s way too early to engage in campaigning now.
Yesterday, he suggested he might not open a campaign office until the summer.
But there’s little question that Bloomberg, an independent, is gearing up for the fight of his life.
He hired top Democratic operative Howard Wolfson, a former senior aide to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, and is about to hire Maura Keeney, chief of staff to Democratic City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.
Bloomberg is also in talks with political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who had once served as an adviser to Thompson, and has landed a highly sought specialist in voter “micro targeting” who helped President Obama pull off his victory.
Privately, mayoral aides are concerned that last year’s bruising battle over term limits – in which the mayor reversed his own earlier position and convinced the City Council to change the rules through legislation – may carry over to Election Day.
“The poll numbers have to make you think term limits is having some effect,” said the analyst.
The numbers provide a significant boost to Weiner, the mayor’s most vocal and persistent critic.
Rumors have swirled for weeks – hotly denied by Weiner – that he might pull out of the race.
“If he was thinking about getting out, this will help to convince him to stay in,” observed the analyst.
Before he can run against Bloomberg in November, Weiner would have to beat Thompson in September’s Democratic primary.
The poll indicated that contest is wide open, with 36 percent of Democratic voters unsure who they’ll be supporting.
Still, Weiner is ahead with 31 percent, with Thompson at 22 percent and Queens Councilman Tony Avella trailing with 4 percent.
Bloomberg can take some solace in history. Four years ago this month, as a Republican, he was in a dead heat with Ferrer, with each at 43 percent. Within a few months, Bloomberg took off and Ferrer never caught up.
The mayor can also take pride in his high approval rating.
The poll of 705 city residents was conducted Jan. 20-25 for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.