The worst may be over for Manhattan’s embattled real-estate market.
Driven by rising consumer confidence, a rebounding stock market and pent-up demand, the last three months saw a 45.6 percent surge in the number of residential real-estate sales compared with the second quarter of the year, new market reports show.
While sales prices were still 16 percent below the same period in 2008, the high pace of new sales over the summer has lowered inventories of properties by 4.6 percent compared with last year, sparking hopes that the market is turning the corner.
“People think that pretty much we’ve bottomed out,” said Dottie Herman, president of Prudential Douglas Elliman, which produced one of the market reports along with appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc.
The median home sales price was $850,000, down 8.4 percent from $928,263 for the same period in 2008. But it’s a far smaller drop than the 25 percent fall-off in prices measured between the second quarters of 2009 and 2008, the Prudential report found.
Prices of studio and one-bedroom apartments saw the smallest price drops, both year to year and second to third quarters. Sales of smaller apartments were likely bolstered by federal tax credits for first-time home buyers.
The median price of a studio was $399,000 in the third quarter of this year, a 6.1 percent drop from $425,000 for the same period a year ago. A one-bedroom apartment fetched a median price of $645,000, an 11.3 percent drop from $727,000 during the third quarter of 2008, the Prudential report found.
Lower asking prices among sellers also helped to push sales up, said Pam Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, which issued its own report.
But Liebman said the real question is whether the recovery can continue past the third quarter of this year.
“The real-estate market is like the Yankees; everyone wants to see what we do in October,” said Liebman. “Everyone wants to see if this recovery has staying power.”
Typically, the second quarter of the year is the busiest, with spring weather helping bring out home buyers, which makes the surge in summer sales stand out.
“From the second quarter to the third you never see that dramatic an increase,” said Greg Heym, an economist at Brown Harris Stevens Residential Sales, which also filed reports on the Manhattan market.
“It’s clear there’s improvement in the market,” said Heym. “With the stock market coming back and improving economic indicators, I think people are feeling safer about their jobs and are now more willing to go forward.”
Still taking a hit, however, are the highest priced homes, said Diane Ramirez, president of Halstead Property. Buyers are now keenly aware of value and are loath to overpay. “No one wants to brag anymore that they paid the most,” she said.