Opinion

The way ahead in Egypt

For a week now, cameras in Cairo’s Tahrir Square have provided a daily dose of a televised revolution. But to influence events that are surely to revolutionize the entire Middle East, Washington must turn its gaze toward the army barracks, where Egypt’s fate will be determined.

Whoever the army backs will lead Egypt next, and President Obama may want to use his considerable influence over the army to facilitate the rise of a longtime American foe, Mohamed ElBaradei.

Unlike the region’s hated and oppressive rulers, Arab armies are a source of citizen pride. Tunisian President Ben Ali was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia this month after his army sent the unsubtle message that it could no longer defend his life.

ElBaradei, recently returned to Egypt like a visitor from Planet Vienna, has no ties to the half-million-man Egyptian army — which is built with American money and support and run by generals with close ties to their Pentagon counterparts.

Why not set up a meeting: Mo hamed, say hello to Gens. Tantawi and Enan. Generals, this is ElBara dei. Now play nice, be friends and we’ll continue our support of Egypt — which, as you know, can’t feed its people without our help. With out us, you may become the next victim of the street crowds.

It may be the least bad option we have to ensure that Egypt doesn’t fall into the hands of fanatical Islamist forces the way Iran did 30 years ago.

Can President Hosni Mubarak survive? Or (better yet) could Omar Suleiman, the long-trusted aide who was named vice president over the weekend, take the reins of power? Either would probably soon need to employ the violent tactics that let ruthless leaders survive in places like Syria and Iran. Unlike those guys — and as dependents who receive nearly $2 billion a year in US aid — Egypt’s current rulers must listen to Washington, and we no longer have the stomach to support such tactics.

The old despotic powers that served as America’s most trusted Arab allies since President Anwar al-Sadat moved Egypt from the Soviet to the Western camp in the 1970s seem to be in their final days.

A former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, ElBaradei has long been a thorn in America’s side. The Bush administration tried to unseat him, and he wasn’t much liked by the Clinton administration, either. Hostile to Israel, the veteran international lawyer often designed his IAEA reports to help Iran escape America’s sanctions drive.

Yet now ElBaradei may well emerge as the only player who can unite the country’s secular, pro-democracy forces and do so without antagonizing the Muslim Brotherhood. (Brotherhood spokesmen yesterday indicated their support for him.) Having spent most of his professional life outside the country and untainted by Mubarak’s oppression and tyranny, he has few enemies.

ElBaradei, however, also has little popular support. He’s a Rorschach blot who has yet to identify his goals beyond clichés like “democracy” and “the people’s will.” In interviews yesterday, he called Obama’s recent moves “failed policy.” He also said he’d soon like to “sit down” with the army.

We may want to secretly facilitate such a meeting. He and the army would owe us one.

So far, the Obama administration has played its cards well, signaling to the region that it won’t quickly and easily sacrifice a long-trusted ally, while also saying that the decision must be made by Egyptians.

But we can no longer afford to sit on the sideline, waiting for what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday called “faux democracy” to happen: If an election takes place tomorrow, the winner will be the best organized force on the ground — the Muslim Brotherhood.

Unlike Lebanon, Iran and North Korea, where Obama’s excuse is that he has very few tools to influence events, he can shape Egypt’s future through our influence over the army. Whether he wants to keep Mubarak in power, transfer it to Suleiman or hand it over to ElBaradei, his worst option right now is to remain passive.

beavni@gmail.com