Dunkin’ Donuts is banking on a fat IPO — but investors may want to watch their appetite.
The coffee-and-doughnut chain will boost the size of its offering to $600 million — more than the $400 million it initially planned in May — when it sells shares to the public this week, sources told The Post.
A big part of Dunkin’s pitch to investors is that the chain will expand beyond its Northeastern base. Of the 6,772 Dunkin’ stores in the US, 55 percent are in New England and New York.
“We believe that our strategy of focusing on contiguous growth has the potential, over the next 15 to 20 years, to more than double our current US footprint and reach a total of 15,000 points of distribution in the US,” Dunkin’ said in its offering papers.
Despite the company’s growth ambitions, the vast majority of the proceeds from the IPO will go toward paying down debt rather than being plowed into new stores.
Indeed, Dunkin’ is relying on its franchisees — who own and run nearly all the stores — to expand its footprint with limited capital investment from the parent. Almost all the 206 net expansions in the US last year came from existing franchisees opening new locations.
“It is the franchisees who will be paying the price for this strategy,” said Irwin Barkan, the author of “Dunk’d: A True Story of How Big Money is Corrupting the Franchising Industry,” which tells of his travails as a franchise owner.
The IPO comes as rising commodity costs put pressure on Dunkin franchisees, who are also finding it harder to line up financing from banks to build stores.
“If the growth is coming from existing franchisees, it is going to be slow,” said one franchisee, who asked to remain unnamed. “This brand really needs a shared growth strategy.”
A Dunkin’ spokeswoman declined to comment.
Private equity backers — Bain Capital, Carlyle Group and THL Partners — plan to use the IPO proceeds to repay $475 million in high-interest debt owed to banks and to refill a $100 million revolving line of credit.
Dunkin’ will still have about $1.8 billion in debt, or about 6.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Dunkin’, based in Canton, Mass., also owns Baskin-Robbins ice cream, which accounts for less than 10 percent of the parent’s total revenue.
Meanwhile, the firm has Canada’s expansion-minded Tim Hortons nipping at its heels. Tim Hortons has $326 million in cash, while Dunkin’ has $121 million, giving its rival the ability to better cut deals with those willing to move to areas like Indiana, where both chains want to build a market presence. jkosman@nypost.com