Opinion

How to save Egypt

On the edge of civil war: Egyptian army troops wearing gas masks Monday before clashes with supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi. (Reuters)

As Egypt slides toward a civil war triggered by last week’s military coup, is any power capable of preventing a tragedy that could affect the whole Middle East?

Many Egyptians, both coup supporters and opponents, tell me that the only power still capable of making a difference is the good old United States — however much that might surprise those who monitor the erratic foreign policy developed by President Obama.

Why could Washington make a difference in Cairo, in effect saving Egypt from its own demons?

First, it is the only power with well-established ties to key players in the Egyptian drama.

Many of the coup leaders were trained in US military colleges and have developed personal and professional ties to America. And the Egyptian armed forces depend on the United States for arms supplies, the maintenance of weapon systems, joint exercises and exchange of intelligence. Washington also provides almost $2 billion in direct or indirect aid to the Egyptian armed forces.

“When Washington says something, the military will listen,” a senior retired Egyptian officer assures me.

America also has influence with the other key player, the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, many Egyptians believe that Washington had a hand in persuading the military to stop supporting President Hosni Mubarak and then let the Muslim Brotherhood win the presidency. Dissident Brotherhood factionalists such as Kamal Halbawi even claim that the deposed President Mohammed Morsi was “too close to the Americans.”

Leaving aside lunatic fringes close to al Qaeda, the bulk of the Islamist movement in Egypt manifests a surprisingly benign view of the United States.

The US ambassador in Cairo has regular meetings with Brotherhood figures. The trouble is that, right now, he has nothing to tell them.

The United States also enjoys a capital of sympathy with the third player in the game: the coalition of Mubarak-leftovers, secularists and aspiring democratic groups that, angered at Morsi’s behavior, rushed into tactical alliance with the military and now regret it.

Despite Washington’s confused approach to international politics, the United States remains popular as a cultural and, to some extent, even a political model. And that gives it some influence with the fourth player in the drama: theTammarod (Rebellion) movement that has mobilized millions of previously apolitical youths in Egypt’s major urban centers.

America could play an important role in another domain. The Egyptian coup has divided Washington’s allies. Inside the Middle East, Turkey and Qatar have condemned the coup and called for Morsi to be reinstated, while Saudi Arabia and Jordan have welcomed the coup. (Another US ally, Israel, has remained agnostic.)

European allies are also divided. Germany has condemned the coup in strong terms while France has shown “understanding” for it. Unable to read Washington’s position, Britain has fudged the question.

Thus, if the United States comes out with a clear stance on Egypt, it can mobilize a broad international coalition in support of political initiatives to bring the country back from the brink.

The various Egyptian players can’t make the concessions needed to bring the crisis under control. The generals can’t simply return to the barracks after reinstating Morsi; the Brotherhood can’t swallow the humiliation of being kicked out so soon after winning presidential and parliamentary elections.

Left on their own, as we have seen in the past week, rival factions will simply say “no” to whatever they offer each other. An outsider is needed to whom they can say “yes.” Only the United States has the prestige, the clout and the contacts to play that role.

Washington could be the shoulder on which the various Egyptian players cry before offering concessions brokered by a disinterested “American friend.”

If the United States offered leadership, the international organs that have helped keep Egypt’s economy afloat could come together in support of a political solution. The IMF, the World Bank, the European Union and nations that give aid to Egypt (notably Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) could make their continued support conditional on a grand national compromise to avoid civil war.

The package that Washington could offer might include four key elements:

* A strong re-affirmation of the need to return to the democratic process with the participation of all political forces within the shortest possible time.

* The appointment of a respected mediator to work out details of that return.

* The release of political prisoners, including Morsi and his advisers, and the lifting of the bans imposed on segments of the media.

* Finally, leading a united front of regional and other allies, the United States should guarantee the integrity of future elections under UN supervision.

As far as Egypt is concerned, the question is not whether US leadership is good or bad. Like it or not, it is necessary.