Consider this the dress rehearsal.
If UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson wants to headline a pay-per-view card in 2014, he’s not just competing against John Moraga at UFC on FOX 8 in Seattle. He’s battling against the other shows with primetime slots Saturday night for viewers.
Will casual MMA fans tune in to watch the 125-pound title be defended? That’s what we’re about to find out.
Johnson fought John Dodson with the belt on the line at January’s FOX show and that earned 4.2 million viewers – a very solid number. But that card also had the benefit of being promoted on NFL programming and a stacked supporting card featuring Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira and Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone.
The little guys will have neither Saturday. Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger, who fight in the co-main event, are not proven draws. In fact, the only person who has headlined a pay per view on the main card is Liz Carmouche, who was defeated by Ronda Rousey in the UFC’s first women’s fight in February.
The reason the UFC keeps putting the flyweight title on FOX and cable is because the division is only a little over a year old and fans haven’t quite embraced the speedy style that sees very few finishes. There’s no better way to expose the new weight class to the masses than putting it front and center at an event that has the potential to draw the most possible eyeballs.
If Johnson-Moraga earns close to 4 million viewers – maybe even a little less – we’ll probably see the flyweights in a pay per view headliner next year. If not, the UFC will likely continue force-feeding the division to the free-TV watching fans. And there’s nothing wrong with that.
The small fighters are usually entertaining with their break-neck pace. But as we’ve found out time and time again, exciting fighters – even elite ones – don’t necessarily equal pay per view buys. It’s that “it” factor and the ability to sell a fight (see: Chael Sonnen) combined with the propensity to finish bouts violently that draw the most fans. Then you have Georges St-Pierre, who hasn’t knocked out or submitted anyone since 2008, yet is the UFC’s biggest draw.
There’s no formula and no blueprint. The flyweights just have to hope something special happens Saturday night in Seattle.
Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger
It’s hard to imagine the winner of this fight not getting a title shot at some point. But MacDonald is adamant that he won’t fight his training partner Georges St-Pierre, the welterweight champion. Does that mean he’ll move up to middleweight? It’s a possibility.
Of course, that would mean he got by Ellenberger, which is no easy task. Ellenberger has serious power in both hands and solid wrestling – he’s a tough out for anyone. MacDonald, though, is a different breed. At 23, he’s polished in every aspect of the game. He’s one of the few UFC fighters who have grown up training in MMA – not just a single discipline. It’s for that reason – and his excellent training camp with St-Pierre at Tristar in Montreal – that gives him the advantage.
Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker
Lawler vaulted himself up the rankings with a knockout win over Josh Koscheck in February. He’s on the cusp of being considered a title contender. Voelker is nowhere near the top 10 – he was fighting on Strikeforce Challengers two years ago – but an impressive KO victory here would look good on Lawler’s resume. Voelker is a scrapper and super tough. This has Fight of the Night potential.
Liz Carmouche vs. Jessica Andrade
Carmouche is the first woman in the UFC to get two fights and she deserves it. She nearly choked out champion Ronda Rousey in February. The San Diego resident and first openly gay fighter in the organization is durable and athletic. She’s hardly ever in a bad fight. Andrade, meanwhile, is just 21 and an unknown commodity from Brazil. All nine of her wins have come via finish.
PRELIMS
Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal
Danny Castillo vs. Tim Means
Mac Danzig vs. Melvin Guillard
Yves Edwards vs. Daron Cruickshank
Ed Herman vs. Trevor Smith
Julie Kedzie vs. Germaine de Randamie
Aaron Riley vs. Justin Salas
John Albert vs. Yaotzin Meza
Chiesa and Masvidal is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup – and both guys have fantastic facial hair. Guillard is one of the most talented and athletic guys in the lightweight division, but painfully inconsistent. He’ll try to get back on track against the improved Danzig. Julie Kedzie was close to beating Miesha Tate, who will challenge for Ronda Rousey’s title in December, last year in Strikeforce. She’s tough and one of the most exciting women to watch. That’s saying something.
PREDICTIONS
Johnson
MacDonald
Lawler
Carmouche
Masvidal
Castillo
Guillard
Edwards
Herman
Kedzie
Riley
Albert
Fight of the Night: Carmouche vs. Andrade
Knockout of the Night: Masvidal
Submission of the Night: Herman