The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fight.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Winnipeg for UFC 161. Rashad Evans meets Dan Henderson in a main event featuring two of the most well-known light heavyweights in the sport. Heavyweight knockout artist Roy Nelson takes on Stipe Miocic and, in women’s action, Alexis Davis and Rosi Sexton make their debuts.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (PPV, 10 p.m.)
Rashad Evans (-130) vs. Dan Henderson (+110)
Roy Nelson (-255) vs. Stipe Miocic (+215)
Ryan Jimmo (-260) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+220)
Alexis Davis (-420) vs. Rosi Sexton (+335)
Pat Barry (-120) vs. Shawn Jordan (+100)
PRELIMS (FX, 8 p.m.)
Tyron Woodley (-190) vs. Jake Shields (+165)
Sam Stout (-245) vs. James Krause (+200)
Sean Pierson (-140) vs. Kenny Robertson (+120)
Roland Delorme (-200) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+170)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 7 p.m.)
John Maguire (-245) vs. Mitch Clarke (+205)
Yves Jabouin (-330) vs. Dustin Pague (+270)
Neither Evans nor Henderson is going to get a title shot after Saturday night, but this is the closest UFC main event of the year. Henderson is durable and has big power, but I just can’t see how he an beat a much faster, more athletic Evans. Especially if Evans is refocused like he says he is. Put a nice chunk of change on Rashad. This is great odds.
While the main event is bettor friendly, a parlay is hard to find on this card. I love Nelson at –255 and Davis at –420. Miocic is too inexperienced and Sexton too small. I’ve been burned by Stout many times, but there’s a reason Krause has yet to make it on a big show. And Jabouin’s explosive striking should nullify Pague. There’s your parlay – Nelson, Davis, Stout and Jabouin. But be wary. There are no locks.
Barry-Jordan is really interesting, because Barry can knock out any heavyweight in the world and his leg kicks are second to none. But Jordan is the bigger, stronger heavyweight and he should be able to take things to the floor – where Barry can look like a fish out of water at times. Take Jordan, a mild upset.
A bigger upset pick I like here is Shields over Woodley. What has Woodley really done? Look at both of their resumes and it’s not close. Shields is still a blanket on the ground, though Woodley is much more athletic. Look for a boring decision, but a Shields victory.
BEST BETS
POT: $926.55 (+$206.08)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Nelson, Davis, Stout, Jabouin
$75 to win $162.20
Straight bets
Evans over Henderson
$65 to win $50
Jordan over Barry
$20 to win $20
Upset special
Shields over Woodley
$20 to win $33
LOOKING BACK
UFC on Fuel TV was very good to us here at BEST BETS. The all-Brazilian parlay came through and then Thiago Silva made our night by knocking our Rafael Cavalcante in a mini upset and Ildemar Alcantara took down Leandro Silva. The upset special – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira over Fabricio Werdum – was dead on arrival. But hey, we’ll take it.