The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fight.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil for UFC on Fuel TV 10. Fabricio Werdum meets Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a battle of Brazilian luminaries and heavyweight contenders. Leonaro Santos takes on William Macario in the finals of the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” and Thiago Silva throws down with Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante in a battle of light heavyweight sluggers
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (Fuel TV, 8 p.m.)
Fabricio Werdum (-310) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+255) Leonardo Santos (-220) vs. William Macario (+180) Rafael Cavalcante (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+175) Daniel Sarafian (-440) vs. Eddie Mendez (+350) Erick Silva (-410) vs. Jason High (+330) Rony Jason (-330) vs. Mike Wilkinson (+270)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 4:45 p.m.)
Raphael Assuncao (-320) vs. Vaughan Lee (+260) Felipe Arantes (-225) vs. Godofredo Pepey (+185) Ildemar Alcantara (-175) vs. Leandro Silva (+155) Rodrigo Damm (-165) vs. Mizuto Hirota (+145) Karlos Vemola (-125) vs. Caio Magalhaes (+105) Antonio Braga Neto (-255) vs. Anthony Smith (+215)
Let’s not waste any time. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira has more mileage than an old Buick. But remember the last time he was a sizeable underdog in Brazil? He steamrolled the much younger, sprier Brendan Schaub to the delight of the crowd. Don’t rule that out from happening here. Werdum is a tough customer and has shown improvement on his feet. But never count out Big Nog – not in his home country. If you’re looking for an upset, take him and cross your fingers.
I like another upset on the main card in Thiago Silva over Rafael Cavalcante. Both men are wildly inconsistent and have knockout power. So why can’t Silva hit with a big swing and knock out Feijao? He can. Put a flier on him.
Erick Silva, Daniel Sarafian and Rony Jason are prime picks for your parlay. Throw in Raphael Assuncao and you have a Brazilian quarter who should make you some money Saturday night. All are better than 3-to-1 favorites and for good reason. You can feel secure in all of them – as much security as you’ll have in an MMA fight, that is.
Alcantara over Silva is my last pick. Alcantara’s submission game is tough as he showed in his last fight against Wagner Prado. He also has more UFC experience and that goes a long way.
BEST BETS
POT: $720.47 (+$119.00)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Sarafian, Erick Silva, Jason, Assuncao
$100 to win $161.08
Straight bets
Alcantara over Silva
$87.50 to win $50
Silva over Cavalcante
$52.50 to win $20
Upset special
Nogueira over Werdum
$25 to win $65
LOOKING BACK
TJ Grant ruined what was a perfectly good parlay with some thunderous right hands to Gray Maynard’s chin. Otherwise we would have nailed all five picks and walked away with some change. The only fighter to come through at UFC 160 was Stephen Thomson, resulting in a loss of $119. Let’s hope this Brazil card changes our fortunes.
mraimondi@nypost.com