Here I am, once again, asked (forced?) by my bosses to make predictions on the unpredictable.
For example, could anyone have seen three — count ’em, three — projected Opening Day starters (Atlanta’s Kris Medlen, Arizona’s Patrick Corbin and Oakland’s Jarrod Parker) being lost for the season before the third week of March was complete? This was no way to honor the recently deceased Frank Jobe — by making the Tommy John surgery he invented the storyline of spring.
Want another example? I watched the Yankees for several weeks this spring, and still am not sure if they are a first-place team or a fourth-place team. That has a lot to do with the strong AL East competition, but also the kind of roster volatility that is, well, unpredictable. I can see CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Masahiro Tanaka, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda each winning 14-plus games and — if they do — the Yankees are going to win the AL East. But there is a downside scenario for each that is not far-fetched.
I am fairly comfortable predicting the expanded use of replay will be seismic and controversial. There will be stalling tactics and mistakes that bring a deluge of criticism upon the sport. Will the leadership have the fortitude to remember there is no perfect system and the key element is getting a larger majority of calls correct than in the past with technology that can no longer be ignored? My hunch is yes — replay is here to stay.
As for everything else, you make predictions with your ear to the ground — listening to as many executives and scouts watching the industry as possible — but also with tongue in cheek:
American League
MVP: Mike Trout, Angels. He won’t be the runner-up a third straight time. But he will be pressed by Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria, Baltimore’s Chris Davis and Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis.
Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Tigers. Rediscovered his familiar self down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. A workhorse with four above-average pitches. Boston’s Jon Lester has climbed to elite level to challenge Verlander, as will Seattle’s Felix Hernandez and the White Sox’s Chris Sale.
Rookie: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox. Already a World Series hero, he will be asked to be Boston’s starting shortstop and appears up to it physically and emotionally. Masahiro Tanaka is going to be tough on opponents with his splitter, especially the first time around the league. In fact, the AL could be sitting on a terrific crop with Seattle’s Taijuan Walker, the White Sox’s Jose Abreu, Detroit’s Nick Castellanos, Houston’s George Springer, Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor.
Don’t be surprised if … (Yankees edition)
• After all the talk that Yankee Stadium is perfect for his power stroke, Brian McCann hits the same 20 homers in 2014 for the Yankees he did in 2012 and ’13 for the Braves.
• The Yanks become so enamored with John Ryan Murphy at Triple-A that Gary Sanchez becomes the new Jesus Montero — a catching trade chip to address an area of future need, such as shortstop or third base.
• Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner each top 40 steals, becoming the first Yankees teammates to do so since Roberto Kelly and Steve Sax in 1990.
• Alex Rodriguez announces he will be on the next version of “Dancing With the Stars” to prove his hip is fine — and, of course, that he still loves attention.
• Derek Jeter hits .275 and his range is limited enough that Joe Girardi begins playing Brendan Ryan late in games the Yanks lead.
• Mark Teixeira hits 27 homers but bats just .230.
Don’t be surprised if … (AL edition)
• Chris Davis was not a fluke and hits 50 homers again.
• Chris Archer and Alex Cobb get more Cy Young consideration than David Price and make Price’s eventual trade from the Rays a bit easier to tolerate.
• The Angels’ Tyler Skaggs turns into one of the best under-the-radar additions of the offseason.
• Eric Hosmer makes his first All-Star team and finishes in the top 10 for MVP.
• It wasn’t New York or Yankee Stadium as Phil Hughes goes 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA with the Twins.
• Robinson Cano has a Robinson Cano season — .315, 28 homers — but that is not enough to elevate a poor Seattle offense.
• Toronto is far out of contention and becomes the big player in July, willing to listen on Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Sergio Santos and Casey Janssen.
National League
MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals. It feels like he has been around a while, but he doesn’t even turn 22 until October. A 30-homer, 20-steal, .900-OPS season is coming — why not this year? Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco’s Buster Posey and Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton round out the top five.
Cy Young: Jose Fernandez, Marlins. Fernandez does not turn 22 until July, but there was nothing fluky about last year’s best NL breakthrough since Doc Gooden. The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann make it a race.
Rookie: Gregory Polanco, Pirates. The Rookie of the Year will be older than the Cy Young or MVP. Polanco, 22, won’t start the season in the majors, but one scout called him “a beast who can’t be kept in the minors long.” Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton is the most obvious choice because he will lead off and play center field from the outset of the season. Keep an eye on Arizona starter Archie Bradley.
Don’t be surprised if … (Mets edition)
• Curtis Granderson hits 35 homers despite playing in more spacious Citi Field.
• Noah Syndergaard comes up to open the second half and puts up a 3.45 ERA the rest of the way — an impressive calling card. And Rafael Montero is not far behind and also offers a strong cameo.
• The Mets are far enough out in July that they have to consider trade offers for Bartolo Colon, Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell.
• The Mets start putting Matt Harvey’s live-tweeting of games on the Citi Field scoreboard to enliven the action.
• Without a better option, the Mets end up designating Ike Davis for assignment in mid-May, while Lucas Duda is competent at first base and hits 20 homers.
• Travis d’Arnaud’s offensive troubles impact his defensive game and force the Mets to send him to the minors for a mental break as much as anything.
• Zack Wheeler throws the second no-hitter in Mets history but continues to battle control issues in going 13-14 with a 4.00 ERA.
Don’t be surprised if … (NL edition)
• Brandon Belt makes his first All-Star team, finishes in the MVP top 10 and moves the Giants to give him a contract similar to what the Braves bestowed on Freddie Freeman.
• Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton becomes the first major leaguer to reach 80 steals since Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson topped the mark in 1988.
• Matt Kemp’s ankle and shoulder are healed, allowing him to return to star level for the Dodgers. However, pitchers do a better job of deciphering Yasiel Puig’s holes, leading to lower production and a higher frequency of on-field bad behavior.
• The Phillies plummet well under .500 and do a July selloff, finally moving Cliff Lee. The Angels are the most interested suitor, but the Red Sox and Diamondbacks have the deeper systems to battle for the lefty.
• The Nationals — with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper getting closer to their high ceilings — become the first team since the 2003 Giants to win an NL division by more than 15 games.
• Ryan Braun puts up a season quite familiar to his past, leaving us even more confused about who is taking illegal performance-enhancers, how and why.
• The Cardinals’ Trevor Rosenthal and Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen both amass 56 saves, breaking Eric Gagne’s NL record of 55.