Sports

UFC on Fox 4 analysis: Machida the unlikely No. 1 contender

Four men had a chance to leave Staples Center in Los Angeles as the No. 1 contender for the UFC light heavyweight title. The criteria: Win in the most impressive fashion, as stated by UFC president Dana White.

Lyoto Machida undeniably did that, finishing Ryan Bader at UFC on Fox 4 with a one-punch knockout in the second round in the co-main event. Machida looked great playing to his strengths – staying on the outside, being patient, picking Bader apart.

That’s all well and good and by White’s determination Machida is the No. 1 contender. But is he really the next best fight for Jon Jones if Jones beats Dan Henderson on Sept. 1 at UFC 151? If it’s Machida-Henderson, fine. But I don’t think it’ll be easy to sell Jones-Machida II after Jones finished Machida with a standing guillotine in December.

White said Saturday night that Machida is the only guy to take a round from Jones (the first) and Machida did land one of the few clean punches to Jones’ head since the champion has been in the UFC. But I don’t think anyone ever really got the feeling that the 24-year-old phenom was in trouble during that fight.

If Mauricio (Shogun) Rua was more dominant in his knockout of Brandon Vera in the main event, Rua-Jones would have been easier to sell. Jones destroyed Rua for the title in March 2011, but Rua was coming off knee surgeries and wasn’t himself.

Then again, he didn’t look that great in a fourth-round KO of Vera, either, gassing out early on. Too early on. That’s what happened against Jones and this time his knee couldn’t have been used as an excuse.

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Vera has lost three of his last five fights and doesn’t have a significant UFC win since 2006. But he’s not going anywhere. Not after his war with Rua. If not for Shogun’s incredible toughness and chin, Vera might have been leaving LA as the No. 1 contender. The 34-year-old didn’t look as good as he once did as a rising prospect, but he left little doubt that he can hang with the top guys in the division.

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There’s two Shoguns. The one that comes out and finishes his opponent within minutes and looks great and the other that fails at doing so and gasses out way too quickly. Yet, Rua always seems to gut it out, despite being exhausted, and pull out the later rounds. He did it against Vera and versus Dan Henderson in that classic war last year, which ended up being chosen as the 2011 Fight of the Year by every major publication. If Shogun doesn’t finish the fight quickly nowadays, it’s almost never pretty, but he has found the ability to grind it out.

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The combination of Jamie Varner and Joe Lauzon had a chance to be a great fight and the two more than lived up to that potential with Lauzon picking up a $50,000 Submission of the Night bonus and both of them taking home $50,000 for Fight of the Night. The bout was nonstop action from beginning to end. Varner looked very crisp with his kickboxing, but on the ground is where Lauzon excels. When Varner took him down with a reversal in the third round, Lauzon slapped on an ingenious triangle choke and finished the fight. Well done. Neither guy did anything to drop his stock Saturday night.

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DaMarques Johnson is no world beater – how long he has left in the UFC remains to be seen – but Mike Swick seemed to have shaken the ring rust off pretty quickly in his Knockout of the Night ($50,000 bonus) performance. Swick, who had not fought in more than two years with a stomach affliction and then a knee injury, looked sharp. He’s now 5-2 as a welterweight in the UFC and that’s not too shabby. It’s doubtful Swick ever becomes a title contender, but his style makes him a fun fighter to watch.

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Was there anything more disappointing Saturday night than Phil Davis poking Wagner Prado in the eye in the first round and the fight being called a no contest? Prado wanted badly to continue, but the doctor wouldn’t let him and probably rightfully so. It was a gruesome eye poke. It would have been nice to see the strides Davis has made since losing to Rashad Evans in January.

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The early ratings number on UFC on Fox 4 was 2.36 million people, making it the least watched Fox show yet. And the numbers are in a steady decline. Granted, it was going up against the Olympics, a ratings powerhouse, and Michael Phelps’ potential final race. But the UFC has to figure out what it wants to do with these Fox cards.

Rua is a legitimate pay per view headliner, which is more than you can say for Nate Diaz and Jim Miller, who fought in the UFC on Fox 3 main event. But Vera is really a journeyman with very little name value. Machida is a former champion and PPV headliner, but not really a draw. Honestly, Rua isn’t much of one, either.

It seems like the UFC is going the route of putting exciting fights on Fox instead of name guys. That’s not a terrible idea, since great matchups will have people coming back for more. But if they’re not sitting down on the couch and watching in the first place, they’ll never see those tremendous battles.

It’s a continued enigma for the UFC – and really something very new for them in their pay-per-view driven business model.

mraimondi@nypost.com