Back in the 1990s, as he tried to persuade his Muslim Brotherhood colleagues to accept Turkey’s tentative democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdogan often used simple imagery. “Democracy is a streetcar,” he liked to say. “We ride it until we have reached our destination.”
Back then, those who talked with the charismatic Turkish leader assumed that the destination Erdogan spoke of was a seat at the high table of local and then national politics. Erdogan and his friends secured that by winning control of local government in more than half of Turkish cities, including the largest, Istanbul — and then with bigger victories: They’ve controlled the nation’s government for almost 12 years. Erdogan has become the longest-serving prime minister in modern Turkey’s history.
Now, however, we know that Erdogan’s destination was neither local nor national government. In fact, his ideal destination doesn’t even exist: It is a dream “Islamic society” that he hopes to conjure by changing the constitution and paving the way for re-casting himself as a modern caliph granted the turban of authority via a presidential election.
However, as Turkey plunges deeper into political crisis, Erdogan’s metaphorical streetcar isn’t working as he expected. He now faces the danger of being thrown out of the streetcar before he’s reached his destination. And Turkish democracy isn’t going where he’d hoped.
Erdogan had counted on a major victory in the coming municipal elections to become a launching pad for an even bigger victory in his projected presidential election.
In a forlorn attempt at calming things down, he now promises to get off the streetcar after the next parliamentary election if his Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins fewer votes than last time.
Today, Erdogan himself has become the problem, not only for Turkey but also for the AKP.
Initially, it was Erdogan’s autocratic style of government, his rashness and penchant for dirty fights, that chipped away at his reputation. Now things have worsened with almost daily revelations about massive corruption involving not only his close political and business friends but also members of his immediate family.
The AKP burst into Turkish politics with a message of cleaning the stables. But what Turks are now learning about corrupt practices under Erdogan makes even the proverbial corruption Turkey suffered under Prime Ministers Tansu Ciller and Mesut Yilmaz seem like small-time pilfering.
To make matters worse, Erdogan’s friends and relatives appear to have been engaged in money-laundering operations to help Iranian mullahs circumvent international sanctions. In some cases, the Turkish government turned a blind eye to massive smuggling to Iran in exchange for a cut in the profits. The proceeds didn’t even go to AKP, but to shady bank accounts controlled by business figures close to Erdogan.
Not surprisingly, some AKP leaders have already started wondering how to get rid of Erdogan without condemning the party to an electoral rout. All last week, behind-the-scenes pressure was mounting to persuade Erdogan to step down in time for AKP to appoint a new prime minister and regroup for the looming campaigns.
But throwing Erdogan out of the streetcar may not be easy. His Muslim Brotherhood allies have always maintained a parallel network within the AKP and are certain to resist his dismissal. They’ll be supported by the powerful business circles that have made their fortune thanks to state patronage under Erdogan.
Compounding the Turkish crisis has been the virtual disappearance of the United States as a major player in Turkish politics.
Traditionally, America used its position as the leader of the NATO bloc (of which Turkey is a member) to mediate among rival factions in Ankara and broker compromises needed to end the nation’s political crises. In some instances, such as in 1960 and 1980, it was deemed necessary for the Turkish military to temporarily seize power from discredited political elites, with a nod from Washington. Today, such an “emergency solution” is out because almost no one takes Washington seriously.
Could the AKP leadership, notably President Abdullah Gul, master enough courage and support to throw Erdogan out of the streetcar and save Turkey from an even deeper crisis? The events of the next few weeks could provide the answer.