INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts-Chiefs wild-card playoff game Saturday at Lucas Oil Field can be described like this: Upstarts versus Restarts.
The Colts are at the head of the NFL’s up-and-coming class with their second-year franchise quarterback Andrew Luck playing a lead role.
The Chiefs, 2-14 a year ago, are trying to return to prominence and win their first playoff game since 1993, when Joe Montana led them to a victory over the Houston Oilers in the AFC divisional round. Kansas City has lost its last seven playoff games since then.
The Colts enter as the much hotter team, having won four of their last five.
Conversely, the Chiefs, with their new head coach Andy Reid, started the season 9-0 and enter the postseason having lost five of their last seven games, during which they have yielded an average of 27.2 points. In addition, the Chiefs rested most of their key starters in Week 17 — always a risky move with concerns about losing competitive edge.
The Colts defeated the Chiefs 23-7 on Dec. 22 and they did so by not allowing Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles to beat them. They also did not turn the ball over, something that has driven the Chiefs’ defense, which led the NFL in takeaways with 36.
That adds intrigue to this matchup, because the Colts have turned the ball over only 14 times this season, the fewest in the league.
Colts head coach Chuck Pagano called Charles, who has more than 1,900 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns this season, “public enemy No. 1.’’
Charles, who rushed for 1,287 yards, also led the Chiefs with 70 receptions.
“First and foremost, that’s the guy that you’ve got to take away,” Pagano said. “If he doesn’t touch the ball 30 times, I’d be shocked.”
Here’s a look inside the game:
MARQUEE MATCHUP: Colts DE Robert Mathis vs. Chiefs RT Donald Stephenson. Stephenson, who has been playing for injured rookie starter Eric Fisher, and LT Branden Albert, will have their hands full with Mathis. The Colts’ veteran pass rusher been one of the most dominant defensive players in the league with 19 ½ sacks and eight forced fumbles. If the Chiefs’ offensive line cannot prevent him from blowing up the game, their season is finished.
RUSH TO JUDGMENT: Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is the centerpiece of the Kansas City offense. Charles, who rushed for 1,287 yards, a 5.0-yard average and 12 touchdowns this season, ran for 106 yards and a score in the teams’ Dec. 22 meeting. But 37 of those yards came on the first drive, so he gained just 69 yards on only 11 carries the rest of the game.
CHIEF CONCERN: The health of Kansas City’s top two defensive players — outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston — is uncertain heading into Saturday. Both have been battling injuries, with Hali (knee) listed as questionable and Houston probable, having recovered from a dislocated elbow. With Houston on the field, opponents are completing 55 percent of their passes for 6.7 yards per attempt and a sack percentage of 8.4. Without Houston, opposing quarterbacks are completing 59 percent for 8.0 yards per attempt and a sack percentage of 4.6. Nine of Hali’s 11 sacks have come with Houston on the field.
PASSING FANCY: The perception of the two starting quarterbacks could not be more different. Luck is one of the darlings of the league, on the short list of players you want to build a team around. Chiefs veteran Alex Smith is destined to someday retire as one of the least-respected good passers in the game. Both players, however, have almost identical statistics this season. Luck is completing 60.2 percent of his passes, has 23 touchdowns, nine interceptions and an 87.0 rating. Smith is completing 60.6 percent, has 23 touchdowns, seven picks and an 89.1 rating. All Smith does is win — he’s 30-9-1 the last three seasons.
RETURN TO SENDER: If the Chiefs have one distinct edge, it is in the return game. Quintin Demps is one of the most dangerous kickoff returners in the league, averaging 30.1 yards and has one 95-yard TD return. Meanwhile, Dexter McCluster is one of the best punt returners, averaging 11.8 yards and he has taken two back for scores this season.
THAT’S A KICK IN THE … : If the game comes down to a field goal, the Colts hold the advantage with Adam Vinatieri still one of the most clutch kickers of all time. Vinatieri showed this season he still has it, having made 35-of-40 FGs. Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop, who missed six of his 28 attempts, is fresh off missing a 41-yarder that would have given Kansas City a win over the Chargers last Sunday. Will that miss be in the back of his mind Saturday if he has a big kick to make?
QUICK PICKS: The Chiefs are a quick passing team that likes to set pick plays on slant patterns to free up their receivers for big gains after the catch. They try to do it with Charles and wide receivers Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery. The Colts, though, counter with sticky man-to-man coverage, something that served them well in the teams’ previous meeting.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
78-20 — Combined score by which the Colts won their last three games.
6.7 — Average points per game the Colts allowed in their last three wins.
101, 66 — Penalties committed by the Chiefs this season compared to the Colts’ penalties.
27.2 — Average number of points the Chiefs have allowed in their final seven regular-season games.
CANNIZZARO’S CALL: I’ve got to go with the hot team entering the playoffs, which matters. So, too, does home-field, which will favor the Colts. The noise inside Lucas Oil Stadium will help the Indianapolis defense to slow down Charles enough to keep him from winning the game. COLTS 23, CHIEFS 21