DES MOINES — Longtime Iowa Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell has dodged Republican opponents before, but this year could be different.
With an electorate soured on the economy and fuming over illegal immigration, Boswell is the kind of lawmaker in danger of getting swept up in a GOP tide that even the White House warns might be coming in November.
Boswell is a “Blue Dog” Democrat and 20-year Army vet who rarely lets his votes stray too far from his central Iowa district’s traditional leanings.
But his narrowly divided district is considered the most vulnerable in a state hit by layoffs and undergoing a demographic transformation through legal and illegal immigration.
“I definitely think that every sitting elected official is vulnerable,” said Brad Zaun, the Republican state senator and hardware store owner who is running against Boswell.
Yesterday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich flew to Des Moines to host a fund-raiser for him.
On immigration, Zaun said, “Arizona is trying to put teeth in the law that the feds should be doing in the first place. I think [Obama] has totally mishandled it.”
He said the issue comes up at every presentation he makes.
Boswell has declined to take a position on the Arizona law, his spokesman said.
According to the latest Rasmussen survey, 49 percent of Iowans favor an Arizona-type immigration law, with 33 percent against.
“It’s a huge issue for me. We’re not sealing our borders. We are being very irresponsible,” said Jeremy Heaberlin, 39, a Republican city councilman in Newton.
“The Arizona bill, if nothing else, has brought the issue back to the forefront of the national debate. It got people in the coffee shops talking about it again,” said Professor Mark Grey, who runs a center on immigration at the University of Northern Iowa.
But that doesn’t mean Republicans have a lock on it, experts said.
University of Iowa political science professor David Rawlings said: “Each time the Republicans think they’re going to come close, but they haven’t been able to do it.”
In a year when incumbents are running scared, there are a number of races where a single issue like immigration could tip the balance, Rawlings said.
“This is one of those,” he said.
Hispanic immigration to Iowa has quadrupled over the last four decades, according to the feds, growing 5 percent between 2008 and 2009 and topping 134,000.