What are the chances of getting away with murder in New York City?
About 41 percent.
The NYPD solved 59 percent of homicides last year — down 8 percentage points from the year before, and about 5 points less than the national average in 2008, according to data obtained under a Freedom of Information request.
The “clearance rate” — cases where arrests are made — plummeted despite detectives having to investigate a near-record low 471 slayings, police records show.
“All the cases on TV are solved with evidence,” said Vernon Geberth, a famed detective and former commander of the Bronx homicide task force. “People start to think we can solve all these crimes.”
The data came out during an alarming uptick in murders. There were 139 homicides so far this year as of April 18, a 27 percent jump over the 109 killings in the same period last year.
In 2009, cops solved 75 percent of rapes, 42 percent of robberies, 18 percent of burglaries and 25 percent of grand larcenies — all higher than the national average the year before. About 54 percent of felony assaults were cleared; the national average in 2008 was 55 percent.
The easiest crime to get away with was car theft — just 9 percent were solved in the city and only 12 percent nationally. And auto thieves are not slowing down. They swiped 2,869 vehicles in the Big Apple this year, up from 2,852 over the same period in 2009.
The NYPD closely guards its performance figures, unlike crime stats, which cops are required to turn over to the FBI.
For years, the department voluntarily gave the feds its clearance rates, but Police Commissioner Ray Kelly ended the practice in 2002, claiming that computer problems got in the way — though detectives still get the information, police spokesman Paul Browne said.
“Clearance rates for the NYPD have been consistent over the years, and usually higher than the national average,” said Browne, pointing out the department’s 67 percent murder clearance rate in 2008 was 3 percentage points higher than the national figure. “I expect the actual clearance rate for 2009 murders will improve as arrests in 2010 for 2009 murders are made and recorded.”
Veteran detectives say they’re working harder than ever to crack cases but are hampered by dwindling ranks and a bigger workload. They now must handle misdemeanor cases that once went to beat cops.
Investigators say the diminished clearance rates could be a result of them taking longer to solve cases, which are increasingly dependent on high-tech evidence like DNA that takes time to collect and analyze.