ATLANTA — When the Jets’ schedule came out in April, the month of October jumped off the page. It featured four teams that have been playoff fixtures in recent years and figured to make or break the Jets season.
Now, it’s here. It begins Monday night with the Falcons. Atlanta limps into this game at a surprising 1-3, something that probably won’t help the 2-2 Jets. They get a team desperate for a win, playing at home on national TV.
It sounds like a recipe for a long night for the Jets.
“We have about as tough a challenge as there is in the National Football League in this opponent’s backyard,” Jets coach Rex Ryan said. “I think their record might be 1-3, but their record at home is [34-6] since [Matt] Ryan took over at quarterback is more than impressive. So that’s where our focus is and what’s down the road or behind us isn’t important right now. Every bit of our focus is on our opponent.”
The Jets have spent the week trying to clean up the mistakes that killed them last week against the Titans. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith had four turnovers and has 11 on the season, tied for most in the NFL entering Week 5. Smith has been drilled this week to hold onto the ball when he’s running and to make better decisions when he’s passing.
“[I’m] disappointed in the way I took care of the ball,” Smith said. “At this point in my career, I’ve got to look at every single thing, good or bad, as a learning experience and just move on from it. Of course in that moment I’m going to be frustrated and I’m not going to like the way that I played, but all in all, it’s a way for me to grow and it’s a way for me to get better.”
Smith will be without wide receiver Santonio Holmes (hamstring).
Ryan’s defense has its toughest task of the season facing Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones and Co.
Here is how The Post sees tonight’s game breaking down:
MARQUEE MATCHUP
Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie
Jones enters this week as the leading receiver in the NFL in terms of yards (481) and yards per game (120.3). It used to be the Jets would just throw Darrelle Revis on a receiver like this and move on. Those days are over.
Cromartie is likely to draw the assignment, but he has not played like an elite corner this season, perhaps because of a nagging hip injury. The Jets will have to give Cromartie some help to have any success.
“He does have everything, size [and] speed,” Ryan said of Jones. “The thing I like about him most is how he competes for the ball. Then the run after the catch, the kid has a lot of things going for him. I don’t see a flaw in his game.”
FAST STARTS
The Jets have scored 12 points, including just one touchdown, in the first quarter this year. The Falcons are one of the best at scoring early. Since 2008, they lead the league in points scored on their first possession. This year, the Falcons have scored 17 points on their first possession, including scores in each of the last three games.
The Jets cannot afford to fall behind early and try to play catch-up against the Atlanta offense.
STAY ON THE RUN
With injuries at wide receiver and Smith struggling, the Jets are going to have to find a running game and stick with it this week. Bilal Powell has been terrific. He entered the week tied for the AFC lead in rushing with 292 yards.
It is also important for the Jets to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense on the sideline as much as possible.
“I think it’s a situation where we have to come out run the ball and be able to control the clock and not turn over the ball,” guard Willie Colon said. “You can’t give that offense it time after time. They’ll light up the scoreboard. They have that capability. It’s a big challenge for our defense. I know they’re more than capable, but we have to help them out.”
BALL SECURITY
The Jets are -10 in turnover differential, only the Steelers are worse in the AFC. If the Jets continue to play this way, they have no chance. Smith needs to protect the ball better, but the defense also needs to produce more turnovers. The defense only has one this season. The Jets also forced another turnover on special teams.
Jets opponents have scored 44 points off turnovers, including 28 by Tennessee last week while the Jets have scored only seven off turnovers. The Falcons are -1 in turnover differential. Ryan has three interceptions.
BREAK THE ICE
The focus this week has been on the Jets’ injuries, but the Falcons have some injury issues of their own. One big one is at left tackle, where Sam Baker won’t play due to a knee injury. The Jets should be able to capitalize on this and get some pressure from their front four on “Matty Ice.”
Atlanta’s offensive line has given up seven sacks this season, tied for fifth best in the NFL. The Jets have 14 sacks, tied for third in the NFL. Expect Ryan to zero in on Lamar Holmes, who will replace Baker and create some heat on Ryan.
COSTELLO’S CALL
It’s hard to figure a way the Jets can win this one. The Falcons entered the year as Super Bowl contenders and need a win desperately to keep those hopes alive. They are tough at home, the Jets are banged up. This could get ugly.
FALCONS 35, JETS 17