LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — So this is a theory and only a theory. I repeat: a theory.
The Yankees want to stay under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold because there is so much money — perhaps $100 million — to be saved over the next three years. But — did I mention this is just my theory — perhaps it also was a negotiating ploy with Robinson Cano.
It goes like this: The Yankees tell Cano we will pay you a lot, but we have limits because we have this new financial religion. If he goes for it, great, the Yankees keep a star on their terms. But at the moment they know he isn’t staying — which the Yanks were pretty certain about as much as a week before the actual agreement with Seattle — they suddenly would lose their religion and show a greater willingness to go over the $189 million.
Suddenly, for example, they would give $153 million over seven years to Jacoby Ellsbury or not that much different than the last and final offer to Robinson Cano (seven years, $175 million) when the whole industry knows, as one NL executive said, “there is not a value system or scouting system that exists to show Ellsbury is anywhere near as good a player as Cano.”
The Yankees counter by saying they went overboard on Ellsbury because once they recognized Cano was leaving they felt they had to secure a big player or two or else the prices were going to get higher as agents sensed the franchise’s desperation.
Whatever theory, you might honor, there is little argument to this: The Yankees have spent $307 million on free agents this offseason and no other team than Cano’s new one in Seattle has invested more than the Mets’ $87.25 million. And that does not count Derek Jeter’s $12 million parting gift.
The outlay means the Yankees might not sink below the $189 million threshold even if Alex Rodriguez’s full banishment is upheld and his 2014 salary completely vanished. The Yanks still want to take a shot at the $189 million or come in a lot lower than they have in recent times. But if the shackles are off then I could see them assuring as good a team within reason by not trading Brett Gardner, signing Omar Infante to play second, re-signing Mark Reynolds for depth at third and first, winning the bidding battle for Masahiro Tanaka (if he is posted), signing the tough-minded J.P. Howell as a lefty set-up man and enlisting someone such as Jose Veras to help David Robertson in the late innings.
That would give the Yankees a batting order that looks like this: Ellsbury, Jeter (assuming Joe Girardi does not disrespect him and drop him down), Carlos Beltran (sharing DH and RF with Alfonso Soriano), Brian McCann, Soriano, Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson/Reynolds (third base platoon), Infante and Gardner.
The rotation would be CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Tanaka, Ivan Nova and a fifth starter from among Michael Pineda, Adam Warren, David Phelps, David Huff, Vidal Nuno and Brett Marshall. The pen would have Robertson, Veras, Howell and Shawn Kelley as the main late-inning components.
Can the Yankees execute this all? Probably not. Even a team with deep pockets doesn’t get it all. But you can see how the Yankees can stack themselves to assure contention next season. Here is a closer look at each issue:
SECOND BASE: Infante feels he compares similarly to Martin Prado and has asked for the same four-year, $40 million pact Prado got from the D’backs last offseason. The Yanks have countered at three years at $24 million.
The Royals also are in play.
If not Infante, maybe the Yankees could turn to free agent Mark Ellis, who at 36 probably needs to be limited to 100 or so games and is mainly a quality professional stopgap more than anything now. They seem to have little interest in Brian Roberts.
THIRD BASE: This position is hard to find quality and it is possible Eduardo Nunez figures into playing time. If you see Nunez in the right spurt, you can still dream on him. After returning from the DL in early July, Nunez hit .281 in 224 at-bats with a .720 OPS. Plus, he played third well in September. But his fragility worries the Yanks, and so does his still baby colt-ish body actions. Talent and athleticism, but lack of refinement.
Also, this assumes A-Rod is not returning.
ROTATION: Tanaka is the best answer, but there is no certainty he is coming. The Yankees might gamble on a Johan Santana or a Gavin Floyd, pitchers trying to return from injury. But those would be extras.
They want to add a starter they are positive is healthy enough to begin the season, give them quality and serve as a bridge to either a July trade or the return to health of Manuel Banuelos or, perhaps, Pineda finishing off his return to star level.
BULLPEN: They have seemed to have no interest in the top of the market — Joaquin Benoit, Fernando Rodney, etc. I am not even sure they would have a reunion with Veras. But they want a security blanket for Robertson as he tries to replace Mariano Rivera
They do have some lefties — Cesar Cabral and Fred Lewis, and potential minor league starter conversions Nik Turley and Matt Tracy — who they think have potential. But they want a surer thing, so Howell should be a strong consideration with Boone Logan having reached agreement on a contract with the Rockies, pending a physical.