Lou Lumenick

Lou Lumenick

Movies

‘You’re not gonna win the Oscar, Leo’

Give it a rest, Leo.

With Oscar polls closing Tuesday, Feb. 25, Leonardo DiCaprio continues his nonstop, quixotic quest for his first Academy Award with all the zeal of Mitt Romney.

He’s everywhere. He talked about getting married on “CBS This Morning’’ (“It’s gonna happen when it’s gonna happen’’), and re-enacted the “flying scene’’ from “Titanic’’ with Jonah Hill on “Saturday Night Live.’’ And he’s turned up at endless screenings — including a Q & A with Martin Scorsese last week at the Ziegfeld — and receptions on both coasts.

Yes, “The Wolf of Wall Street’’ was a passion project for Leo, and yes, he’s a producer with a financial stake in promoting the movie.

But there’s also an unmistakable impression that, after going winless following three previous Oscar nominations, DiCaprio would finally like to win this time.

Sorry, Leo, ain’t gonna happen. And seeming desperate about it probably makes things worse.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve often said DiCaprio is a great actor, though I personally feel that, pushing 40, he’s too old to play 20-something Jordan Belfort in “Wolf.’’ (I would have given him a Best Actor nomination instead for “The Great Gatsby,’’ where I think he nailed a more difficult part — but only Australia’s version of the Oscars, where he won last week, seems to agree to me.)

As I predicted way back in early December, “Wolf’’ is a totally polarizing film. Those who love it really adore it — which is why it and Leo got nominated — but those who hate it totally loathe it. Most likely it will go 0 for 5 on Oscar night.

My pal Tom O’Neil, a veteran Oscar expert who runs the predictions hub Gold Derby, got a lot of attention (and Web hits) recently when he boldly predicted that Leo would pull off an upset.

“I think Leo has run a much smoother and aggressive campaign,’’ O’Neil wrote. “He’s everywhere behind the scenes at industry events . . . always with Marty Scorsese at his side, which bolsters his prestige factor . . . He’s a veteran overdue for this gold.’’

But of the 27 other Oscar pundits indexed on O’Neil’s own Web site, the only one who agrees with Tom is Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere — whose “predictions’’ often reflect whom Wells wants to win.

Everyone else is prognosticating a win for Matthew McConaughey of “Dallas Buyers Club.’’ He’s already won the Screen Actors Guild Award, the Golden Globe for best lead male performance in a dramatic picture and dozens of others.

Leo’s main victories consist of winning lead actor in the comedy categories at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards given by the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

In the unlikely event there is a Best Picture upset on Oscar night, it’s probably not going to be DiCaprio pulling it off.

When Movie City News polled its Gurus o’ Gold panel on a possible upset for Best Actor, the only prediction (by Peter Howell of the Toronto Star) was for Chiwetel Ejiofor of “12 Years a Slave.’’

Indeed, DiCaprio couldn’t even win at last weekend’s BAFTAs, where McConaughey wasn’t even nominated. Ejiofor won best actor there.