‘Egypt is Coming Back!”; “The Collapse of the Brotherhood!” — these were some of the headlines in Egyptian newspapers yesterday as the nation held its breath while President Mohammed Morsi and army chiefs played “chicken” against a backdrop of rival demonstrations across the country.
The day ended with Morsi, having refused to resign, removed from power, as the military announced that the constitution was suspended even as the head of the constitutional court is to serve as interim president.
Eighteen months ago, Egyptians celebrated the “revolution” that they believed ended half a century of military rule. At the time, some of us doubted that a genuine revolution had occurred. It seemed a military coup aimed at change within the regime rather than regime change.
In Cairo yesterday, many hare-brained schemes were making the rounds, with the army getting top billing in all of them. These included vague promises of writing a new constitution and holding fresh parliamentary and presidential elections, with the military as ultimate arbiter.
Egyptians would do well to ponder Algeria’s experience with playing the military against Islamists. Twenty years ago, Algerian liberal, socialist and secularist groups urged the military to stage a coup to stop the formation of a government by Islamist parties that had won a general election. That led to a decade of civil war that claimed almost 200,000 lives and revived military rule behind a civilian façade. The result has been phenomenal corruption at the highest levels, mass unemployment and a pervasive sense of despair.
It may be futile to play “what if” with history. But many Algerians now feel that bringing in the military was a mistake. The Islamists had a narrow support base and an economic program that would’ve quickly hit the wall. It might have been better to give them time to prove the insanity of their project, and then defeat them in another general election.
It would be in Egypt’s long-term interest to allow the method of changing governments through elections enough time to become part of the nation’s political culture. It would be wiser to let Morsi complete his term — and if he fails (as I’m confident he will), kick him out in the next election.
On their own, crowds, even in the hallowed Tahrir Square, will never succeed in either creating a government or changing one. Crowds are fickle beasts on whose back ride all manner of unsavory demagogues. And they often morph into mobs, producing ochlocracy, or rule by the worst elements of society.
Morsi has been forced out, and it’s because the armed forces, plus the police and the intelligence services, decided that it was in their interest to ditch him. And that’s a victory for army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his associates, not for the Tahrir Square passionaries who were shouting themselves hoarse.
The Egyptian top brass couldn’t have made its move without consulting Washington. After all, much of the $2 billion a year in US aid to Egypt is controlled by the military. Yet President Obama, ignoring State Department advice, had backed Islamist groups from the start of the “Arab Spring.” Did he jettison his “Brotherhood” allies by endorsing the army’s move?
Yesterday, Cairo was full of rumors that Obama had indeed switched sides — in a classical example of buyer’s remorse.
If so, then he has opted for a high-risk strategy. Military rule can’t solve Egypt’s pressing problems and might even plunge the country into greater instability. Radical Islamists who have always mocked the democratic process could well return to terrorism. History does not repeat itself, but the lessons learned in Algeria should not be ignored.
In every coup, those who seize power promise their rule will be temporary. Yet their “temporary” often gets too long, if not outright forever. In 1952, Col. Nasser and his gang promised to hold elections and return to the barracks within six months. They clung to power for 50 years.
A coup by any other name is still a coup, and will smell as sour.
And the aspiring democrats of Tahrir Square may end up as losers yet again. Whoever throws the banquet, they could be served as the turkey on the table.