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PORT ST. LUCIE — What is troublesome about the Mets’ long-shot chance at contention is not their weakness. For it hardly takes a scout with two good eyes and an off-the-record nature to reveal that the Mets’ outfield is three men and a maybe.
The problem is their strength — pitching.
No doubt that is their asset. If you need confirmation, walk two or three steps in this camp and someone affiliated with the team will offer a version of “we should pitch pretty well this year.”
But the true measure of strength is by comparison — there is a difference between being a good basketball player in a 45-and-over rec league and the NBA.
So the Mets like their rotation. But will it be better than Washington’s with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and plenty of back-end depth? Nope. Is it better than the Phillies’ with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay (and if you say Halladay is a health concern, I would say not nearly as much as Johan Santana)?
Are the Mets’ starters better than the Braves’? Even if you think Santana, Jon Niese and Matt Harvey are comparable to Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen and Mike Minor, well, tie goes to the group supported by superior relief. And Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel-led bullpen might be the converse of the Mets’ outfield — the best unit in the majors.
So within the NL East, the Mets’ rotation — which, again, is their strength — projects as better than just the sell-off Marlins’.
If you want to include the whole NL then at least the Reds, Giants and Dodgers also look superior to the Mets. Thus, the 2013 Mets’ rotation, is about mid-pack in the league. And this is what the Mets do best. So how exactly do they win consistently when their offense — to a great degree because of that outfield — promises little and the pitching, by comparison, is fine, but not great?
Obviously, the rotation would be a grade better if R.A. Dickey were still fronting it. He’s not. Maybe you could push it up a notch or two if you believed Santana would perform close to his prime, which he last came close to doing over a full season in 2010.
“If Santana is a No. 1, then I think we are equal to any other team or better,” pitching coach Dan Warthen said.
But what are the chances of that? In fact, Santana and Shaun Marcum are thirtysomethings with long histories of arm problems. Dillon Gee is younger, but also coming back from a shoulder procedure. That is 60 percent of the rotation. All three were being babied in spring with hopes they would break camp ready to go. You have to factor the fragility into the equation when forecasting the strength of the unit.
How many starts do you think the Mets receive from that trio? Do you think it will be closer to the maximum 90 range or in the area of 50? And who starts if one or more go down?
For those hoping to see Zack Wheeler early, forget it. No way a team pinching pennies and not expecting to compete will risk Wheeler or Travis d’Arnaud becoming eligible for Super Two arbitration status. So you are unlikely to see either before July 1.
In fact, the Mets would sign up now to have Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Cory Mazzoni all making starts in September as a) a sign their highest-caliber prospects’ development went well in 2013 and b) to get a better gauge on if they are ready for 2014. Until then, though, the rotation depth is likely Jeremy Hefner, Collin McHugh and Jenrry Mejia (health permitting).
Also, in many ways, a rotation is beholden to its defense and pen. Warthen revealingly said one key difference between the Mets and Nationals is “I watch Washington catch six more balls a game than us.” And the best Mets officials can say about their pen is that it can’t be worse than last year.
But we will see. At present, Frank Francisco, Pedro Feliciano and LaTroy Hawkins all have physical uncertainties and then uncertainties about how good they will be even if ready to go. Can Bobby Parnell close? Can Josh Edgin be a lefty force for a full season?
Thus, this looks like no better than the fourth-best pen in the NL East, as well.
So, pitching is the Mets’ strength. Does that say a lot more about their offense and defense than about how their pitching stacks up against the competition?