Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Yankees myths: Rivera irreplaceable, Pettitte dominant in playoffs

Mariano Rivera has been called irreplaceable so many times now, we often do not end up asking the most obvious question: Is he replaceable?

He was honored Sunday with many of his comrades of championships past returning. And one thing you could appreciate is there was life, a lot of winning and at least one title — so far — after Joe Torre, Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez, Paul O’Neill, etc.
Might Rivera be the hardest to replace? Well, certainly in two areas:

1. It is hard to believe any team, the Yankees included, will have one relief pitcher as great and as long-lasting in one place with so little deviation year after year as Rivera has been.

2. It is harder to believe anyone will have Rivera’s postseason success. He has pitched the equivalent of two closer campaigns (141 innings) in the playoffs and has a 0.70 ERA. That means he could surrender 20 earned runs without recording an out, and his ERA would still not climb over 2.00.

Opponents have a combined .439 OPS against him in the playoffs, which is the same OPS that Hall of Fame pitcher Carl Hubbell produced as a hitter for his career. Rivera went his last 57 postseason games without yielding a homer — a period of 81 innings, 303 batters and 1,137 pitches.

Nevertheless, Rivera can be replaced in both the regular season and postseason, and if you need a case study, we offer Rafael Soriano and the Cardinals.

Soriano is no one’s idea of a legendary figure. Yet, in 2012, he replaced Rivera a month into the season, recorded 42 saves and was a major reason the Yanks made the playoffs. So someone already has succeeded as the Yankees closer while Rivera was still active.

Since 1997, the year Rivera became a closer, the Cardinals arguably have been the NL’s preeminent team — St. Louis has the second-most wins in that time after Atlanta, but the Cardinals have the same number of playoff appearances (10, including already clinching for this year) and lead in championships, 2-0.

The Cardinals have maintained that success though having nine different relievers lead the team in saves during that time frame. In the 2006 and 2011 championship seasons, the pitchers who led the Cardinals in saves during the regular season (Jason Isringhausen and Fernando Salas, respectively) were not their postseason closers (Adam Wainwright, Jason Motte). And the same might be true this year, as Edward Mujica, who replaced the injured Motte early this season, was at least temporarily removed from the job just days before St. Louis clinched a playoff berth.

Two AL playoff teams — the Red Sox and Tigers — found their current closers (Koji Uehara and Joaquin Benoit) as the season progressed. The Pirates, who look as if they will make the playoffs for the first time in 20 years, survived six weeks with Mark Melancon as the closer while Jason Grilli recovered from injury — and whoever thought of Jason Grilli as a playoff closer before this year?

Rivera did the closer job like no other. Longer, better, most consistently at a great level. That is never going to be replaced. But as jobs go, it is the easiest one for which to find solutions year to year in the sport.

*
One item that came up quite often in wrapping up Andy Pettitte’s baseball career in recent days was he was a “great” postseason pitcher.

It is a nice sentiment. It also is a myth.

Pettitte is a very good postseason pitcher, a cornerstone of five championship teams. But if he ever had a season in which he went 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA, it would be described as a pretty standard Pettitte season. Those are his postseason numbers.

His batting average and OPS against in the playoffs: .270/.732. His batting average and OPS against in the regular season: .270/.723. He was roughly the same pitcher in 44 postseason starts as he was in 520 regular-season starts.

Give him extra points because keeping your numbers the same in the playoffs is notable, considering the competition and pressure both rise. Therefore, a case can be made that Pettitte was better in October than April-September. But the end result is above average for his entire career, regardless of the month.

Let’s try this another way — at least six innings and three or fewer earned runs has been established as a quality start, though that baseline gives a pitcher a 4.50 ERA. So what if we make the standards at least seven innings and two or fewer earned runs to establish a special performance. Well, in the regular season, Pettitte did that in 31.2 percent of his starts (162 out of 520) and in the postseason he did that in 31.9 percent (14 out of 44).

But more important, when you are looking for which of Pettitte’s contemporaries can be defined as great postseason starters, well, Curt Schilling reached at least seven innings and two or fewer earned runs in 13 of 19 starts (68.4 percent). Schilling and Pettitte are viewed as borderline Hall of Famers who get boosts for their postseason work. But Schilling’s, while less voluminous, is more impressive.

John Smoltz produced the seven-inning/two-run result in 15 of 27 starts (55.6 percent). Orlando Hernandez did it in eight of 14 starts (57.1 percent). Even Mike Mussina, another borderline Hall guy, did it at a higher percentage (38.1, 8 of 21) than Pettitte. In his time with the Yankees, CC Sabathia has faced criticism for not being more of a big-game pitcher, but he has posted a seven/two result five times in 13 postseason starts (38.4 percent).

Again, this is not to impugn Pettitte, who was an unflinching playoff performer with significant high points in October. It is just to point out his full body of playoff work is very good and not “great.”