Such is the nature of my job that, as Tuesday night’s Yankees game was winding down – here’s my column – we in the press box were monitoring the White Sox-Indians and Rangers-Astros games. I had it written up that the Yankees’ tragic number for elimination was two and the Indians and Rangers would be tied for the second American League wild card.
Then Jason Giambi went big fly, and I had to do some editing.
We all thought the Indians would be improved this season after signing free agents Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. Still, few anticipated a postseason appearance a year after they went 68-94 while scoring 667 runs and allowing 845.
Their run differential is currently 710-647, giving them a one-year positive swing of 181. That’s the second best in the American League, behind only the Red Sox, who scored 734 and allowed 806 last year and currently stand at 815-635, a positive swing of 252.
(Curious which two teams have experienced the worst swings in the AL? I was. Number one is the White Sox, who have gone from +72 (748-676) to -112 (586-698), a negative swing of 184. Number two is the Yankees, who have gone from +136 (804-668) to -18 (637-655), a negative swing of 154.)
The Indians control their own destiny and wind up their schedule with Wednesday night’s home game against the White Sox and a four-game road trip to friendly Minnesota. So if they win out, would they have a chance to do some damage in October?
I think so, because of two emergent starting pitchers: Veteran Ubaldo Jimenez, who seems to have rediscovered himself, and rookie Danny Salazar, who has been terrific since he joined Cleveland’s starting rotation for good in August.
They say that the hottest team wins October, rather than the best team, and the Indians are surely hot. How much of that is due to their cupcake schedule, however?
Of their last 17 games, 14 will have come against the White Sox (6), Astros (4) and Twins (4), with only the Royals presenting a real threat. Will that soften up the Indians? Or will it have allowed them to rest up? I think the latter is a real possibility.
Three other areas of interest for me with this team:
1. Swisher. Swish-a-licious! Back to October, bro! While I’m of the belief you can turn around your “October choker” label in a very short amount of time, Swisher did construct quite the terrible postseason resume with the Yankees. Will that still be in his head? Or will it be different playing in a ballpark where it presumably wouldn’t be in every fans’ head as it had become in The Bronx?
2. Terry Francona. He’s no stranger to this time of year, which pulls the Indians even in this category with similarly experienced managers Bob Melvin (Oakland), Jim Leyland (Detroit) and Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay) and gives him an edge over John Farrell, his old pitching coach in Boston who is now the Red Sox manager. How much will that matter?
This analysis could be moot if the Indians trip up and allow the Rangers to pass them, or they could go one-and-done against the Rays (or Texas) in the wild-card game. No matter what, they’ve been a far more interesting story this year than we anticipated. Which makes it all the sadder that their attendance (1,541,984, ranking 13th of 15 in the AL) isn’t better. Stupid Cleveland economy.
3. Chris Perez. The Indians’ once-chatty, now-silent closer is a modest 25-for-30 in save opportunities this year after blowing one Tuesday night before Giambi bailed him out. He walks 3.5 batters per nine innings and has no postseason experience, which, all things being equal, you’d rather your closer have.
Have a great day.